Which Team Will Win?

Brighton & Hove Albion 5–0 Crystal Palace

Sunday 18th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Brighton & Hove Albion win

5–0Full time

Brighton & Hove Albion crest
◀ Brighton win Crystal Palace win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers
Crystal Palace crest

Confidence: Fair

BHA CRY L-D-W-W-W L-W-L-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-D-W L-D-L-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 61% 39% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.94 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 2.10 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1590 Average 1511 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.83 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.94 1.51 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 69% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.3 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game BHA CRY L-D-W-W-W L-W-L-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches 1.80 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-D-W L-D-L-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 61% 39% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.94 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.55 2.10 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1590 Average 1511 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.83 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.94 1.51 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 69% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.3 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 1.55 to 2.10. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 73% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callBrighton & Hove Albion to win: 56% against 21%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionPossession 61% v 39% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.40 v -0.80 (decisive); Goal difference 1.80 v -0.20 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceGK save rate 72% v 69% (slight).
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion L-D-W-W-W, Crystal Palace L-W-L-D-W.
Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmedCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Verbruggen 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 44 L. Vušković 24 F. Kadıoğlu 14 Chema Andrés 13 P. Groß 29 M. De Cuyper 26 Y. Ayari 25 D. Gómez 19 C. Kostoulas
44 W. Benítez 21 H. Ahanor 26 C. Richards 6 J. Canvot 3 T. Mitchell 23 Q. Timber 20 A. Wharton 25 A. Khalaili 10 Yéremy Pino 18 D. Kamada 22 J. Strand Larsen
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. O. Boscagli
  3. L. Dunk
  4. L. Vušković
  5. F. Kadıoğlu
  6. Chema Andrés
  7. P. Groß
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. Y. Ayari
  10. D. Gómez
  11. C. Kostoulas
  1. W. Benítez
  2. H. Ahanor
  3. C. Richards
  4. J. Canvot
  5. T. Mitchell
  6. Q. Timber
  7. A. Wharton
  8. A. Khalaili
  9. Yéremy Pino
  10. D. Kamada
  11. J. Strand Larsen

Substitutes J. Hadjam, J. Hinshelwood, Costinha, M. O'Riley, I. Osman, G. Rutter, J. Steele, M. Svoboda, M. Yalcouyé

Substitutes W. Hughes, J. Lerma, J. Mateta, R. Matthews, D. McNeil, Óscar Mingueza, E. Nketiah, D. Osorio, I. Sarr

Our call: 56% BHA · 23% draw · 21% CRY  ·  bookmakers: 61% / 21% / 18%  ·  expected goals 1.94–1.11

Last updated 18 Oct at 13:16

What separates them

Reason◂ BrightonCrystal Palace ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.36
Home advantage 0.30
Shots on target 0.12
Defence 0.06
XI defensive record 0.03
XI attacking output 0.02
Everything else 0.07
Brighton ahead by 0.82

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Brighton come out 0.82 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Crystal Palace goals Brighton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brighton 0–0 Crystal Palace: 5% Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace: 5% Brighton 0–2 Crystal Palace: 3% Brighton 0–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Brighton 0–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 0–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 1–0 Crystal Palace: 9% Brighton 1–1 Crystal Palace: 11% Brighton 1–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Brighton 1–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Brighton 1–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 1–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 2–0 Crystal Palace: 9% Brighton 2–1 Crystal Palace: 10% Brighton 2–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Brighton 2–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Brighton 2–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 2–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 3–0 Crystal Palace: 6% Brighton 3–1 Crystal Palace: 6% Brighton 3–2 Crystal Palace: 4% Brighton 3–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Brighton 3–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 3–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 4–0 Crystal Palace: 3% Brighton 4–1 Crystal Palace: 3% Brighton 4–2 Crystal Palace: 2% Brighton 4–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 4–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 5–0 Crystal Palace: 1% Brighton 5–1 Crystal Palace: 1% Brighton 5–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 5–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 5–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 6–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 6–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 6–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Brighton 6–3 Crystal Palace: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brighton win, above it Crystal Palace do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →