Which Team Will Win?

Coventry City vs. Sunderland

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

Coventry City crest
◀ Coventry win Sunderland win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Knife-edge – Sunderland shade it

MoreLess
COV SUN L-L-L-W-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.41 1.42 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 1.63 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.54 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.7 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 61% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.10 1.41 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Weak 1433 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average COV SUN L-L-L-W-W D-L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W W-L-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.41 1.42 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 1.63 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.54 1.65 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.7 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 61% 59% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.10 1.41 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Weak 1433 Below average 1470 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Sunderland: 1.63 to 1.76. In matches like this, the side with the tighter defence usually wins – about 66% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Coventry City 37%, draw 26%, Sunderland 37%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Sunderland comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them.
  • For SunderlandShots on target 4.6 v 3.7 (useful); Attack 1.41 v 1.10 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -1.00 (slight).
  • For Coventry CityGoal difference -0.60 v -1.60 (useful); XI defensive record 1.54 v 1.65 (slight); GK save rate 61% v 59% (slight).
  • FormCoventry City L-L-L-W-W, Sunderland D-L-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Coventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtfulSunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey30%

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, B. Brobbey doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 37% COV · 26% draw · 37% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 35% / 28% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.42

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ CoventrySunderland ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Cup match in the week 0.18
Long-run strength 0.16
Shots on target 0.10
Settled eleven 0.03
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Everything else 0.26
Sunderland ahead by 0.01

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Sunderland come out 0.01 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Sunderland goals Coventry goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Coventry 0–0 Sunderland: 6% Coventry 0–1 Sunderland: 8% Coventry 0–2 Sunderland: 6% Coventry 0–3 Sunderland: 3% Coventry 0–4 Sunderland: 1% Coventry 0–5 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 0–6 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 1–0 Sunderland: 8% Coventry 1–1 Sunderland: 12% Coventry 1–2 Sunderland: 8% Coventry 1–3 Sunderland: 4% Coventry 1–4 Sunderland: 1% Coventry 1–5 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 1–6 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 2–0 Sunderland: 6% Coventry 2–1 Sunderland: 8% Coventry 2–2 Sunderland: 6% Coventry 2–3 Sunderland: 3% Coventry 2–4 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 2–5 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 2–6 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 3–0 Sunderland: 3% Coventry 3–1 Sunderland: 4% Coventry 3–2 Sunderland: 3% Coventry 3–3 Sunderland: 1% Coventry 3–4 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 3–5 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 4–0 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 4–1 Sunderland: 1% Coventry 4–2 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 4–3 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 4–4 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 5–0 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 5–1 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 5–2 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 5–3 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 6–0 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 6–1 Sunderland: <1% Coventry 6–2 Sunderland: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Coventry win, above it Sunderland do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →