Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland vs. Chelsea

Sunday 8th November 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Chelsea win

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

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SUN CHE D-L-L-L-L L-D-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L L-W-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1470 Strong 1580 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.43 Defence Conceded per game 59% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.33 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven SUN CHE D-L-L-L-L L-D-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.60 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-W-L-L L-W-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1470 Strong 1580 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.43 Defence Conceded per game 59% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.33 2.07 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Chelsea come out on top, 1.43 against 1.65. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 74% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 32%, draw 26%, Chelsea 42%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from the long-run strength gap, changes in the other camp and the defence in front of them.
  • For ChelseaGK save rate 71% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.40 v -1.60 (decisive); Elo performance 1580 v 1470 (useful).
  • For SunderlandXI attacking output 2.33 v 2.07 (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-L-L v L-W-L-L-W (marginal).
  • FormSunderland D-L-L-L-L, Chelsea L-D-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailable · 3 doubtfulChelsea 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 2 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

22 R. Roefs 20 N. Mukiele 17 Reinildo 12 T. Meunier 32 T. Hume 6 Methalie 28 E.Le Fée 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N.Angulo 9 B. Brobbey
39 M. Penders 5 M. Lacroix 6 L. Colwill 34 J. Acheampong 3 W. Fofana 10 C. Palmer 17 M. Rogers 7 P. Neto 14 J. Henderson 25 Caicedo 9 João Pedro
  1. R. Roefs98%
  2. N. Mukiele98%
  3. Reinildo78%
  4. T. Meunier53%
  5. T. Hume43%
  6. Methalie25%
  7. E.Le Fée98%
  8. G. Xhaka98%
  9. N. Sadiki96%
  10. N.Angulo71%
  11. B. Brobbey30%
  1. M. Penders25%
  2. M. Lacroix80%
  3. L. Colwill80%
  4. J. Acheampong62%
  5. W. Fofana58%
  6. C. Palmer98%
  7. M. Rogers98%
  8. P. Neto98%
  9. J. Henderson60%
  10. Caicedo38%
  11. João Pedro78%

Likely subs M. Fofana, H. Diarra, C. Talbi, J. Ahoka, J.Angulo, M. Ellborg, L. O'Nien

Likely subs J. Hato, R. Lavia, Chavarria, Estêvão, D. Welbeck, V. Barco, M. Palestra

Doubts K. Danso suspended, T. Meunier doubtful, B. Brobbey doubtful, D. Ballard injured, W. Isidor doubtful, L. Hjelde unavailable, J. Seelt unavailable, A. Patterson unavailable

Doubts Martinez injured, Chavarria doubtful, R. James injured, M. Gusto doubtful, E. Emegha injured, J. Gittens injured, T. Chalobah unavailable, F. Jörgensen unavailable

Our call: 32% SUN · 26% draw · 42% CHE  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.50

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ SunderlandChelsea ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.47
Home advantage 0.28
Settled eleven 0.03
XI attacking output 0.02
Defence 0.02
XI defensive record 0.01
Chelsea ahead by 0.23

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Chelsea come out 0.23 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Chelsea goals Sunderland goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Sunderland 0–0 Chelsea: 7% Sunderland 0–1 Chelsea: 9% Sunderland 0–2 Chelsea: 7% Sunderland 0–3 Chelsea: 4% Sunderland 0–4 Chelsea: 1% Sunderland 0–5 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 0–6 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 1–0 Chelsea: 8% Sunderland 1–1 Chelsea: 12% Sunderland 1–2 Chelsea: 9% Sunderland 1–3 Chelsea: 4% Sunderland 1–4 Chelsea: 2% Sunderland 1–5 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 1–6 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 2–0 Chelsea: 5% Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea: 8% Sunderland 2–2 Chelsea: 6% Sunderland 2–3 Chelsea: 3% Sunderland 2–4 Chelsea: 1% Sunderland 2–5 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 2–6 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 3–0 Chelsea: 2% Sunderland 3–1 Chelsea: 3% Sunderland 3–2 Chelsea: 2% Sunderland 3–3 Chelsea: 1% Sunderland 3–4 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 3–5 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 4–0 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 4–1 Chelsea: 1% Sunderland 4–2 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 4–3 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 4–4 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 5–0 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 5–1 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 5–2 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 5–3 Chelsea: <1% Sunderland 6–1 Chelsea: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Sunderland win, above it Chelsea do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →