Which Team Will Win?

Everton 0–2 Chelsea

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Everton win

0–2Full time

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Everton shade it

EVE CHE D-D-D-W-D W-L-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-W-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.46 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.35 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 1.36 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1537 Strong 1570 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.25 2.09 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven EVE CHE D-D-D-W-D W-L-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-L-W-D-W D-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.46 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.50 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.35 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 1.36 1.57 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 66% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1537 Strong 1570 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.25 2.09 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Attack. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Everton: 1.50 to 1.20. the more productive attack normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Everton 41%, draw 26%, Chelsea 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Everton comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.
  • For EvertonHome and away form D-L-W-D-W v D-L-W-L-L (useful); Defence 1.35 v 1.76 (useful); XI defensive record 1.36 v 1.57 (useful).
  • For ChelseaPossession 57% v 43% (decisive); Elo performance 1570 v 1537 (slight); GK save rate 67% v 66% (marginal).
  • FormEverton D-D-D-W-D, Chelsea W-L-D-L-W.
Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedChelsea 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 2 Maitland-Niles 45 H. Armstrong 37 J. Garner 10 J. Grealish 8 Dewsbury-Hall 34 M. Röhl 11 T. Barry
1 E. Martínez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 34 J. Acheampong 21 J. Hato 25 M. Caicedo 14 J. Henderson 7 Pedro Neto 17 M. Rogers 10 C. Palmer 9 João Pedro
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. A. Maitland-Niles
  6. H. Armstrong
  7. J. Garner
  8. J. Grealish
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. M. Röhl
  11. T. Barry
  1. E. Martínez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. J. Acheampong
  5. J. Hato
  6. M. Caicedo
  7. J. Henderson
  8. Pedro Neto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. C. Palmer
  11. João Pedro

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, T. George, B. Graham, H. Hackney, B. Johnson, J. O'Brien, C. Nørgaard, M. Travers

Substitutes Estêvão, V. Barco, W. Fofana, R. Lavia, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, M. Palestra, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 41% EVE · 26% draw · 32% CHE  ·  bookmakers: 30% / 26% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.46–1.27

Last updated 17 Oct at 11:44

What separates them

Reason◂ EvertonChelsea ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.27
Long-run strength 0.14
Defence 0.04
XI attacking output 0.01
XI defensive record 0.01
Settled eleven 0.01
Everton ahead by 0.19

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Everton come out 0.19 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Chelsea goals Everton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Everton 0–0 Chelsea: 7% Everton 0–1 Chelsea: 8% Everton 0–2 Chelsea: 5% Everton 0–3 Chelsea: 2% Everton 0–4 Chelsea: <1% Everton 0–5 Chelsea: <1% Everton 1–0 Chelsea: 9% Everton 1–1 Chelsea: 12% Everton 1–2 Chelsea: 8% Everton 1–3 Chelsea: 3% Everton 1–4 Chelsea: 1% Everton 1–5 Chelsea: <1% Everton 1–6 Chelsea: <1% Everton 2–0 Chelsea: 7% Everton 2–1 Chelsea: 9% Everton 2–2 Chelsea: 6% Everton 2–3 Chelsea: 2% Everton 2–4 Chelsea: <1% Everton 2–5 Chelsea: <1% Everton 3–0 Chelsea: 3% Everton 3–1 Chelsea: 4% Everton 3–2 Chelsea: 3% Everton 3–3 Chelsea: 1% Everton 3–4 Chelsea: <1% Everton 3–5 Chelsea: <1% Everton 4–0 Chelsea: 1% Everton 4–1 Chelsea: 2% Everton 4–2 Chelsea: <1% Everton 4–3 Chelsea: <1% Everton 4–4 Chelsea: <1% Everton 5–0 Chelsea: <1% Everton 5–1 Chelsea: <1% Everton 5–2 Chelsea: <1% Everton 5–3 Chelsea: <1% Everton 6–0 Chelsea: <1% Everton 6–1 Chelsea: <1% Everton 6–2 Chelsea: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Everton win, above it Chelsea do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →