Which Team Will Win?

Everton vs. Coventry City

Friday 6th November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 10

whichteamwillwin.com

Everton win

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Coventry win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Coventry City crest

Confidence: Strong

MoreLess
EVE COV D-D-W-D-L L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-D-W-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.93 0.93 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.36 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1526 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 69% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game EVE COV D-D-W-D-L L-L-L-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.20 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-D-W-L L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.93 0.93 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.36 1.54 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1526 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.45 1.76 Defence Conceded per game 69% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.19 1.10 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Everton come out on top, 1.36 against 1.54. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 74% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callEverton to win: 61% against 17%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For EvertonGK save rate 69% v 61% (clear); Goals 1.93 v 0.93 (clear); Home and away form L-W-D-W-L v L-L-W (useful).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormEverton D-D-W-D-L, Coventry City L-L-L-W-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Everton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailableCoventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Our call: 61% EVE · 22% draw · 17% COV  ·  expected goals 1.93–0.93

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ EvertonCoventry ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.39
Home advantage 0.28
Shots on target 0.10
Defence 0.03
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.21
Everton ahead by 1.00

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Everton come out 1.00 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–0

Coventry goals Everton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Everton 0–0 Coventry: 6% Everton 0–1 Coventry: 5% Everton 0–2 Coventry: 2% Everton 0–3 Coventry: <1% Everton 0–4 Coventry: <1% Everton 1–0 Coventry: 11% Everton 1–1 Coventry: 11% Everton 1–2 Coventry: 5% Everton 1–3 Coventry: 1% Everton 1–4 Coventry: <1% Everton 1–5 Coventry: <1% Everton 2–0 Coventry: 11% Everton 2–1 Coventry: 10% Everton 2–2 Coventry: 5% Everton 2–3 Coventry: 1% Everton 2–4 Coventry: <1% Everton 2–5 Coventry: <1% Everton 3–0 Coventry: 7% Everton 3–1 Coventry: 6% Everton 3–2 Coventry: 3% Everton 3–3 Coventry: <1% Everton 3–4 Coventry: <1% Everton 4–0 Coventry: 3% Everton 4–1 Coventry: 3% Everton 4–2 Coventry: 1% Everton 4–3 Coventry: <1% Everton 4–4 Coventry: <1% Everton 5–0 Coventry: 1% Everton 5–1 Coventry: 1% Everton 5–2 Coventry: <1% Everton 5–3 Coventry: <1% Everton 6–0 Coventry: <1% Everton 6–1 Coventry: <1% Everton 6–2 Coventry: <1% Everton 6–3 Coventry: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Everton win, above it Coventry do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →