Which Team Will Win?

Brentford vs. Everton

Monday 23rd November 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Brentford win

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Everton win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Everton crest

Knife-edge – Brentford shade it

MoreLess
BRE EVE D-D-W-D-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.77 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 74% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.78 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 3.8 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.55 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Above average 1559 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average BRE EVE D-D-W-D-L D-D-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-D-W-L D-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.77 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 74% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.78 1.45 Defence Conceded per game 3.8 4.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.55 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Above average 1559 Above average 1526 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Brentford: 2.77 to 2.27. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Brentford 43%, draw 26%, Everton 31%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Brentford comes from home advantage, the long-run strength gap and what this eleven creates.
  • For BrentfordGoal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.20 (useful); Home and away form D-W-D-W-L v D-L-D-D-D (useful); GK save rate 74% v 69% (useful).
  • For EvertonDefence 1.45 v 1.78 (useful); Shots on target 4.6 v 3.8 (useful).
  • FormBrentford D-D-W-D-L, Everton D-D-W-D-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 expected · 5 unavailable · 1 doubtfulEverton 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 44 J. Schuster 23 Lewis-Potter 7 K. Schade 19 J. Anthony 18 M.Sangaré 24 M. Damsgaard 11 O.Dango 9 Thiago
1 J. Pickford 6 J. Tarkowski 4 Branthwaite 16 V. Mykolenko 2 Maitland-Niles 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 22 B. Johnson 10 J. Grealish 11 T. Barry
  1. C. Kelleher98%
  2. K. Ajer98%
  3. M. Kayode76%
  4. J. Schuster47%
  5. K. Lewis-Potter93%
  6. K. Schade81%
  7. J. Anthony79%
  8. M.Sangaré45%
  9. M. Damsgaard43%
  10. O.Dango38%
  11. Thiago98%
  1. J. Pickford98%
  2. J. Tarkowski98%
  3. J. Branthwaite98%
  4. V. Mykolenko80%
  5. A. Maitland-Niles75%
  6. K. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. J. Garner98%
  8. H. Armstrong98%
  9. B. Johnson72%
  10. J. Grealish62%
  11. T. Barry98%

Likely subs A. Hickey, N. Collins, C. Wilson, F. Carvalho, E. Diouf, H. Valdimarsson, S. Van den Berg

Likely subs T. George, M. Röhl, M. Travers, H. Hackney, T. Dibling, Alcaraz, C. Nørgaard

Doubts V. Janelt suspended, Y. Yarmoliuk suspended, J. Schuster doubtful, A. Milambo injured, K. Furo injured, J. Dasilva injured

Doubts A. Aznou unavailable, Beto unavailable, N. Patterson unavailable

Our call: 43% BRE · 26% draw · 31% EVE  ·  expected goals 1.53–1.25

Unchanged since 17 Oct at 20:00 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ BrentfordEverton ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Long-run strength 0.14
Shots on target 0.09
XI attacking output 0.04
Settled eleven 0.04
Defence 0.04
Everything else 0.03
Brentford ahead by 0.27

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Brentford come out 0.27 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Everton goals Brentford goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brentford 0–0 Everton: 7% Brentford 0–1 Everton: 7% Brentford 0–2 Everton: 5% Brentford 0–3 Everton: 2% Brentford 0–4 Everton: <1% Brentford 0–5 Everton: <1% Brentford 1–0 Everton: 9% Brentford 1–1 Everton: 12% Brentford 1–2 Everton: 7% Brentford 1–3 Everton: 3% Brentford 1–4 Everton: <1% Brentford 1–5 Everton: <1% Brentford 1–6 Everton: <1% Brentford 2–0 Everton: 7% Brentford 2–1 Everton: 9% Brentford 2–2 Everton: 6% Brentford 2–3 Everton: 2% Brentford 2–4 Everton: <1% Brentford 2–5 Everton: <1% Brentford 3–0 Everton: 4% Brentford 3–1 Everton: 5% Brentford 3–2 Everton: 3% Brentford 3–3 Everton: 1% Brentford 3–4 Everton: <1% Brentford 3–5 Everton: <1% Brentford 4–0 Everton: 1% Brentford 4–1 Everton: 2% Brentford 4–2 Everton: 1% Brentford 4–3 Everton: <1% Brentford 4–4 Everton: <1% Brentford 5–0 Everton: <1% Brentford 5–1 Everton: <1% Brentford 5–2 Everton: <1% Brentford 5–3 Everton: <1% Brentford 6–0 Everton: <1% Brentford 6–1 Everton: <1% Brentford 6–2 Everton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brentford win, above it Everton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →