Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United 1–1 Brentford

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

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Leeds United win

1–1Full time

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Brentford win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Brentford crest

Knife-edge – Leeds United shade it

LEE BRE W-D-W-L-W W-L-D-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-D-W-W-W D-D-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.37 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.11 2.97 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.25 1.93 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.30 1.50 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.37 1.53 Defence Conceded per game 4.1 3.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game LEE BRE W-D-W-L-W W-L-D-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-D-W-W-W D-D-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.37 1.25 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.11 2.97 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.25 1.93 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.30 1.50 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.37 1.53 Defence Conceded per game 4.1 3.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Brentford: 2.97 to 2.11. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 73% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – Brentford lead on it, and Leeds United still shade the call – on home advantage and recent shots on target.

  • The callKnife-edge – Leeds United 39%, draw 27%, Brentford 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Leeds United comes from home advantage, attacking form and recent shots on target.
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form L-D-W-W-W v D-D-L-L-D (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.80 (clear); XI defensive record 1.30 v 1.50 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 74% v 63% (decisive); Attack 1.93 v 1.25 (clear); XI attacking output 2.97 v 2.11 (clear).
  • FormLeeds United W-D-W-L-W, Brentford W-L-D-D-W.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmedBrentford 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 15 J. Bijol 6 J. Rodon 24 J. Justin 18 A. Stach 4 E. Ampadu 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 11 B. Aaronson 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 22 N. Collins 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 27 V. Janelt 18 M. Sangaré 19 J. Anthony 24 M. Damsgaard 7 K. Schade 9 Igor Thiago
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. J. Bijol
  4. J. Rodon
  5. J. Justin
  6. A. Stach
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. J. Bogle
  9. N. Okafor
  10. B. Aaronson
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. N. Collins
  4. K. Ajer
  5. M. Kayode
  6. V. Janelt
  7. M. Sangaré
  8. J. Anthony
  9. M. Damsgaard
  10. K. Schade
  11. Igor Thiago

Substitutes A. Cairns, N. Elvedi, W. Gnonto, G. Gudmundsson, D. James, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, A. Tanaka, H. Wilson

Substitutes E. Diouf, Fábio Carvalho, R. Henry, A. Hickey, D. Ouattara, J. Schuster, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, Y. Yarmoliuk

Our call: 39% LEE · 27% draw · 34% BRE  ·  bookmakers: 37% / 28% / 35%  ·  expected goals 1.37–1.25

Last updated 30 Aug at 15:58

What separates them

The lean to Leeds United comes from home advantage, attacking form and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brentford goals Leeds United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Leeds United 0–0 Brentford: 8% Leeds United 0–1 Brentford: 9% Leeds United 0–2 Brentford: 6% Leeds United 0–3 Brentford: 2% Leeds United 0–4 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 0–5 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 1–0 Brentford: 10% Leeds United 1–1 Brentford: 13% Leeds United 1–2 Brentford: 8% Leeds United 1–3 Brentford: 3% Leeds United 1–4 Brentford: 1% Leeds United 1–5 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 1–6 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 2–0 Brentford: 7% Leeds United 2–1 Brentford: 9% Leeds United 2–2 Brentford: 5% Leeds United 2–3 Brentford: 2% Leeds United 2–4 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 2–5 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 3–0 Brentford: 3% Leeds United 3–1 Brentford: 4% Leeds United 3–2 Brentford: 2% Leeds United 3–3 Brentford: 1% Leeds United 3–4 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 3–5 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 4–0 Brentford: 1% Leeds United 4–1 Brentford: 1% Leeds United 4–2 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 4–3 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 4–4 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 5–0 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 5–1 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 5–2 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 5–3 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 6–0 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 6–1 Brentford: <1% Leeds United 6–2 Brentford: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Leeds United win, above it Brentford do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →