Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United vs. Brentford

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Leeds United win against the odds

◀ Leeds United win Brentford win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Leeds United crest
LEE BRE D-W-D-W-L L-W-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-D-W-W-W D-D-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.52 1.17 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.80 2.22 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.49 1.74 Defence Conceded per game 4.2 3.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game Average 1498 Above average 1552 Elo performance 1500 is average
Brentford crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Leeds United: 2.80 to 2.22. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 71% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callLeeds United to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form L-D-W-W-W v D-D-L-L-D (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.00 v -0.80 (clear); XI attacking output 2.80 v 2.22 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 74% v 62% (decisive); Elo performance 1552 v 1498 (slight); Possession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • FormLeeds United D-W-D-W-L, Brentford L-W-L-D-D.
  • Worth knowingThis call goes against both the ratings and the bookmakers.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Leeds United 3-5-2

Expected starting XI

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. TraffordNEW98%
  2. Justin98%
  3. Bijol97%
  4. Bogle96%
  5. Ampadu98%
  6. Stach98%
  7. Tanaka96%
  8. Aaronson77%
  9. Okafor75%
  10. Calvert-Lewin98%
  11. Nmecha27%
  1. Kelleher98%
  2. Collins98%
  3. Kayode98%
  4. Pinnock97%
  5. Henry95%
  6. AnthonyNEW98%
  7. Lewis-Potter98%
  8. Yarmoliuk98%
  9. Jensen98%
  10. O.Dango81%
  11. Thiago98%

Likely subs Perri, Rodon, Wilson, James, Longstaff, Muharemović, Elvedi

Likely subs Schade, Damsgaard, Janelt, Ajer, Valdimarsson, Hickey, Wilson

Doubts Gudmundsson injured, Gruev injured, Bornauw unavailable, Harrison unavailable, Gnonto injured, Piroe unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured

Doubts Van den Berg injured, Milambo injured, Carvalho doubtful

Our call: 45% LEE · 26% draw · 29% BRE  ·  expected goals 1.52–1.17

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Attack from this XI & keeper faced LEE 71% 1,200
Attack from this XI & form at this venue LEE 71% 1,192
Defence faced & form at this venue LEE 70% 1,192
Shots on target & keeper faced LEE 70% 1,193
Shots on target & defence faced LEE 73% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.06 towards LEE.

Most likely scorelines

BRE goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 LEE goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.5%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →