Which Team Will Win?

Brentford 3–0 Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Brentford win

3–0Full time

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Tottenham win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Slight

BRE TOT L-W-L-D-D W-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-D-W-D D-L-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.14 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.65 1.32 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.74 0.91 Defence Conceded per game Above average 1552 Below average 1468 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.63 2.31 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven BRE TOT L-W-L-D-D W-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-D-W-D D-L-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.55 1.14 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.65 1.32 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.74 0.91 Defence Conceded per game Above average 1552 Below average 1468 Elo performance 1500 is average 74% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.63 2.31 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur lead it, 1.32 to 1.65. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 66% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Tottenham Hotspur; Brentford are tipped because they lead on goal difference in this setting, expected goals and overall strength.

  • The callBrentford to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For BrentfordElo performance 1552 v 1468 (useful); GK save rate 74% v 70% (useful); Goals 1.55 v 1.14 (slight).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 0.91 v 1.74 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.32 v 1.65 (clear); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • FormBrentford L-W-L-D-D, Tottenham Hotspur W-W-D-L-W.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 confirmedTottenham Hotspur 4-3-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-3-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 22 N. Collins 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 18 M. Sangaré 8 M. Jensen 7 K. Schade 27 V. Janelt 11 D. Ouattara 9 Igor Thiago
31 A. Kinský 3 A. Robertson 5 M. Senesi 6 J. van Hecke 14 A. Gray 8 C. Gallagher 16 S. Tonali 15 L. Bergvall 11 M. Tel 47 M. Moore 9 Richarlison
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. N. Collins
  4. K. Ajer
  5. M. Kayode
  6. M. Sangaré
  7. M. Jensen
  8. K. Schade
  9. V. Janelt
  10. D. Ouattara
  11. Igor Thiago
  1. A. Kinský
  2. A. Robertson
  3. M. Senesi
  4. J. van Hecke
  5. A. Gray
  6. C. Gallagher
  7. S. Tonali
  8. L. Bergvall
  9. M. Tel
  10. M. Moore
  11. Richarlison

Substitutes J. Anthony, R. Henry, A. Hickey, M. Damsgaard, E. Pinnock, J. Schuster, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, Y. Yarmoliuk

Substitutes R. Bentancur, K. Danso, B. Davies, M. Dúbravka, Mateus Fernandes, J. Maddison, D. Solanke, D. Udogie, L. Williams-Barnett

Our call: 46% BRE · 26% draw · 28% TOT  ·  bookmakers: 38% / 26% / 35%  ·  expected goals 1.55–1.14

Last updated 22 Aug at 17:02

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Tottenham goals Brentford goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brentford 0–0 Tottenham: 7% Brentford 0–1 Tottenham: 7% Brentford 0–2 Tottenham: 4% Brentford 0–3 Tottenham: 2% Brentford 0–4 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 0–5 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 1–0 Tottenham: 10% Brentford 1–1 Tottenham: 12% Brentford 1–2 Tottenham: 7% Brentford 1–3 Tottenham: 3% Brentford 1–4 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 1–5 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 2–0 Tottenham: 8% Brentford 2–1 Tottenham: 9% Brentford 2–2 Tottenham: 5% Brentford 2–3 Tottenham: 2% Brentford 2–4 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 2–5 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 3–0 Tottenham: 4% Brentford 3–1 Tottenham: 5% Brentford 3–2 Tottenham: 3% Brentford 3–3 Tottenham: 1% Brentford 3–4 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 3–5 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 4–0 Tottenham: 2% Brentford 4–1 Tottenham: 2% Brentford 4–2 Tottenham: 1% Brentford 4–3 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 4–4 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 5–0 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 5–1 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 5–2 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 5–3 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 6–0 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 6–1 Tottenham: <1% Brentford 6–2 Tottenham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brentford win, above it Tottenham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →