Which Team Will Win?

Brentford vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Brentford win

◀ Brentford win Tottenham win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 27%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Brentford crest
BRE TOT L-W-L-D-D W-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-D-W-D D-L-W-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.45 1.10 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 1.54 1.17 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.74 0.91 Defence Conceded per game 74% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Above average 1552 Below average 1468 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.44 1.21 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Tottenham Hotspur crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur lead it, 1.17 to 1.54. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here — 66% of the time in recent seasons. That cuts against our verdict. Brentford are tipped because they lead on goal difference in this setting, expected goals and goalkeeping. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callBrentford to win: 45% against 28%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
  • For BrentfordElo performance 1552 v 1468 (useful); GK save rate 74% v 70% (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v 0.00 (slight).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 0.91 v 1.74 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.17 v 1.54 (clear); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • FormBrentford L-W-L-D-D, Tottenham Hotspur W-W-D-L-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Kelleher98%
  2. Collins98%
  3. Kayode98%
  4. Pinnock97%
  5. Henry95%
  6. AnthonyNEW98%
  7. Lewis-Potter98%
  8. Yarmoliuk98%
  9. Jensen98%
  10. O.Dango81%
  11. Thiago98%
  1. Kinsky98%
  2. SenesiNEW98%
  3. Pedro Porro98%
  4. Van HeckeNEW98%
  5. Danso98%
  6. FernandesNEW98%
  7. Gallagher98%
  8. TonaliNEW97%
  9. Bentancur97%
  10. Tel81%
  11. Solanke97%

Likely subs Schade, Damsgaard, Janelt, Ajer, Valdimarsson, Hickey, Wilson

Likely subs Van de Ven, Dubravka, Udogie, Robertson, Richarlison, Kudus, Gray

Doubts Van den Berg injured, Milambo injured, Carvalho doubtful

Doubts Vicario unavailable, Kudus doubtful, Romero unavailable, Odobert injured, Kulusevski injured, Spence unavailable, Xavi injured, Phillips unavailable

Our call: 45% BRE · 27% draw · 28% TOT  ·  expected goals 1.45–1.10

Last updated today at 09:41

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Defence from this XI & defence faced TOT 66% 1,078
Defence faced & defence from this XI TOT 66% 1,032
Keeper faced & team strength BRE 72% 848
Attacking threat & team strength BRE 73% 841
Attacking threat & shots on target BRE 59% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.06 towards BRE.

Most likely scorelines

TOT goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 BRE goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.8%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →