Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Newcastle United

Saturday 29th August 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Tottenham win Newcastle win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Draw 26% · leans NEW by 1 point

More statsLess
Tottenham Hotspur crest
TOT NEW W-W-D-L-W L-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.40 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-D-D-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.39 1.41 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.17 1.51 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1468 Above average 1546 Elo performance 1500 is average 70% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.91 1.57 Defence Conceded per game 1.93 2.36 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Newcastle United crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur come out on top, 1.17 against 1.51. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here — 74% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callToo close to call — Tottenham Hotspur 37%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 37%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Newcastle UnitedXI attacking output 2.36 v 1.93 (useful); Elo performance 1546 v 1468 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.60 v -0.80 (marginal).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 0.91 v 1.57 (clear); XI defensive record 1.17 v 1.51 (clear); GK save rate 70% v 67% (useful).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur W-W-D-L-W, Newcastle United L-W-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Kinsky98%
  2. SenesiNEW98%
  3. Pedro Porro98%
  4. Van HeckeNEW98%
  5. Danso98%
  6. FernandesNEW98%
  7. Gallagher98%
  8. TonaliNEW97%
  9. Bentancur97%
  10. Tel81%
  11. Solanke97%
  1. Pope98%
  2. Thiaw98%
  3. Schär98%
  4. Botman98%
  5. Burn81%
  6. L.Miley98%
  7. J.Murphy73%
  8. Willock62%
  9. J.Ramsey62%
  10. Barnes27%
  11. Osula93%

Likely subs Van de Ven, Dubravka, Udogie, Robertson, Richarlison, Kudus, Gray

Likely subs Hall, Woltemade, Elanga, Wissa, Neave, Touré, Steur

Doubts Vicario unavailable, Kudus doubtful, Romero unavailable, Odobert injured, Kulusevski injured, Spence unavailable, Xavi injured, Phillips unavailable

Doubts Joelinton injured, Livramento injured, A.Murphy unavailable

Our call: 37% TOT · 26% draw · 37% NEW  ·  expected goals 1.39–1.41

Last updated today at 09:41

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Defence from this XI & team strength NEW 74% 809
Keeper faced & team strength NEW 72% 848
Defence from this XI & defence faced TOT 66% 1,078
Defence faced TOT 70% 1,193
Attack from this XI & keeper faced NEW 71% 1,200

Conviction score: 0.14 towards NEW.

Most likely scorelines

NEW goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 TOT goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.3%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →