Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur 0–2 Newcastle United

Saturday 29th August 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

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Newcastle United win

0–2Full time

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Newcastle win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Newcastle United crest

Knife-edge – Newcastle United shade it

TOT NEW W-D-L-W-L W-D-W-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-D-D-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.42 1.43 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.44 1.66 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1462 Above average 1547 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.41 1.83 Defence Conceded per game 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.06 1.42 Attack Goals and expected goals per game TOT NEW W-D-L-W-L W-D-W-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-D-D-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.42 1.43 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.44 1.66 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Below average 1462 Above average 1547 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.41 1.83 Defence Conceded per game 68% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.06 1.42 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. No other measure separates them as clearly. Tottenham Hotspur come out on top, 1.44 against 1.66. the side with the steadier back line normally comes out on top here – 74% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Tottenham Hotspur lead on it, and Newcastle United still shade the call – on recent form, goal difference and goal difference in this setting.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 37%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 37%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Newcastle UnitedAttack 1.42 v 1.06 (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.40 (useful); Elo performance 1547 v 1462 (useful).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.41 v 1.83 (useful); XI defensive record 1.44 v 1.66 (useful); Home and away form L-L-D-D-W v W-L-L-D-L (marginal).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur W-D-L-W-L, Newcastle United W-D-W-L-D.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 confirmedNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

31 A. Kinský 3 A. Robertson 37 van de Ven 6 J. van Hecke 14 A. Gray 30 R. Bentancur 16 S. Tonali 11 M. Tel 18 Mateus Fernandes 23 Pedro Porro 22 Omar Marmoush
21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 12 M. Thiaw 4 S. Botman 37 A. Dedić 67 L. Miley 6 Nico González 11 H. Barnes 28 J. Willock 19 A. Elanga 9 Y. Wissa
  1. A. Kinský
  2. A. Robertson
  3. M. van de Ven
  4. J. van Hecke
  5. A. Gray
  6. R. Bentancur
  7. S. Tonali
  8. M. Tel
  9. Mateus Fernandes
  10. Pedro Porro
  11. Omar Marmoush
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. M. Thiaw
  4. S. Botman
  5. A. Dedić
  6. L. Miley
  7. Nico González
  8. H. Barnes
  9. J. Willock
  10. A. Elanga
  11. Y. Wissa

Substitutes L. Bergvall, B. Davies, M. Dúbravka, C. Gallagher, M. Kudus, M. Moore, M. Senesi, D. Solanke, D. Udogie

Substitutes A. Bamba, E. Jaouen, J. Murphy, J. Ramsey, F. Schär, L. Shahar, S. Steur, B. Touré, N. Woltemade

Our call: 37% TOT · 26% draw · 37% NEW  ·  bookmakers: 42% / 26% / 33%  ·  expected goals 1.42–1.43

Last updated 29 Aug at 17:32

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Newcastle goals Tottenham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Tottenham 0–0 Newcastle: 6% Tottenham 0–1 Newcastle: 8% Tottenham 0–2 Newcastle: 6% Tottenham 0–3 Newcastle: 3% Tottenham 0–4 Newcastle: 1% Tottenham 0–5 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 0–6 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 1–0 Newcastle: 8% Tottenham 1–1 Newcastle: 12% Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle: 8% Tottenham 1–3 Newcastle: 4% Tottenham 1–4 Newcastle: 1% Tottenham 1–5 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 1–6 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 2–0 Newcastle: 6% Tottenham 2–1 Newcastle: 8% Tottenham 2–2 Newcastle: 6% Tottenham 2–3 Newcastle: 3% Tottenham 2–4 Newcastle: 1% Tottenham 2–5 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 2–6 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 3–0 Newcastle: 3% Tottenham 3–1 Newcastle: 4% Tottenham 3–2 Newcastle: 3% Tottenham 3–3 Newcastle: 1% Tottenham 3–4 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 3–5 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 4–0 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 4–1 Newcastle: 1% Tottenham 4–2 Newcastle: 1% Tottenham 4–3 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 4–4 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 5–0 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 5–1 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 5–2 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 5–3 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 6–0 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 6–1 Newcastle: <1% Tottenham 6–2 Newcastle: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Tottenham win, above it Newcastle do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →