Which Team Will Win?

Hull City vs. Manchester United

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

◀ Hull City win Man United win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 19%

Confidence: Strong

More statsLess
Hull City crest
HUL MUN W-D-L-L-L W-W-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -2.00 1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-W-W-L-L L-D-W-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.60 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 0.96 2.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.6 5.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.94 1.38 Defence Conceded per game 0.91 1.76 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 70% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1398 Very strong 1628 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.49 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven
Manchester United crest

The key stat: Shots on target. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 5.4 to 2.6. the side testing the goalkeeper more often normally comes out on top here — 73% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester United to win: 67% against 14%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester UnitedGoal difference 1.20 v -2.00 (decisive); Shots on target 5.4 v 2.6 (decisive); Defence 1.38 v 2.94 (decisive).
  • For Hull CityHome and away form W-W-W-L-L v L-D-W-D-W (marginal).
  • FormHull City W-D-L-L-L, Manchester United W-W-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Hull City 4-3-3

Expected starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. TzolakisNEW0%
  2. AjayiNEW98%
  3. EganNEW96%
  4. McNairNEW62%
  5. GilesNEW42%
  6. DowellNEW96%
  7. BelloumiNEW0%
  8. MillarNEW0%
  9. McBurnieNEW81%
  10. DramehNEW27%
  11. TargettNEW20%
  1. Lammens98%
  2. Maguire98%
  3. Shaw98%
  4. Martinez98%
  5. Dalot81%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. Cunha98%
  8. Mainoo98%
  9. TielemansNEW80%
  10. Amad79%
  11. Šeško58%

Likely subs Ömür, Akintola, Morita, Hjertø-Dahl, Stroud, Gourna-Douath, Crooks

Likely subs Mazraoui, Amass, Mbeumo, Darlow, Andrey Santos, Heaven, Rashford

Doubts Butland injured, Gelhardt injured, Burstow unavailable, Gyabi injured, Kamara unavailable, Morita doubtful, Matazo injured, Zambrano injured

Doubts De Ligt injured, Darlow doubtful, Bayindir unavailable, Heaton injured, Šeško doubtful, Mount doubtful, Fredricson unavailable, Ugarte injured

Our call: 14% HUL · 19% draw · 67% MUN  ·  expected goals 0.96–2.32

Last updated today at 12:19

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Shots on target & defence faced MUN 73% 1,193
Attacking threat & defence faced MUN 74% 1,193
Keeper faced & shots on target MUN 72% 1,193
Team strength & defence from this XI MUN 75% 1,148
Team strength & form at this venue MUN 75% 1,192

Conviction score: 1.77 towards MUN.

Most likely scorelines

MUN goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 HUL goals → Most likely: 0–2 (10.1%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →