Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal 3–0 Coventry City

Friday 21st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Arsenal win

3–0Full time

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Coventry win ▶ 16% draw chance bookmakers
Coventry City crest

Confidence: Very strong

ARS COV 2.47 0.76 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1744 Weak 1430 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 76% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.06 1.46 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.48 2.42 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.07 0.00 XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven ARS COV 2.47 0.76 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1744 Weak 1430 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 76% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.06 1.46 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.48 2.42 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.07 0.00 XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Weak. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 77% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 75% against 9%, with the draw at 16%. Confidence very strong.
  • For ArsenalGoals 2.47 v 0.76 (decisive); Elo performance 1744 v 1430 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.06 v 1.46 (clear).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormArsenal W-W-W-W-W. Coventry City have no Premier League record.

NB Coventry City came up from the Championship, and we hold no Championship results, so their half of this comparison rests on the players rather than on past results. The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Arsenal 4-3-3 confirmedCoventry City 4-3-3 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-3-3

Confirmed starting XI

Coventry City 4-3-3

Confirmed starting XI

1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 3 Cristhian Mosquera 4 B. White 49 Lewis-Skelly 41 D. Rice 8 M. Ødegaard 17 C. Tzolis 29 K. Havertz 7 B. Saka
19 C. Rushworth 3 J. Dasilva 24 A. Amenda 4 B. Thomas 27 M. van Ewijk 6 M. Grimes 8 C. Yirenkyi 16 F. Onyeka 18 L. Tchaouna 9 E. Simms 23 Thomas-Asante
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. Cristhian Mosquera
  5. B. White
  6. M. Lewis-Skelly
  7. D. Rice
  8. M. Ødegaard
  9. C. Tzolis
  10. K. Havertz
  11. B. Saka
  1. C. Rushworth
  2. J. Dasilva
  3. A. Amenda
  4. B. Thomas
  5. M. van Ewijk
  6. M. Grimes
  7. C. Yirenkyi
  8. F. Onyeka
  9. L. Tchaouna
  10. E. Simms
  11. B. Thomas-Asante

Substitutes Kepa Arrizabalaga, M. Dowman, E. Eze, V. Gyökeres, P. Hincapié, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, E. Nwaneri, Martín Zubimendi

Substitutes T. Awoniyi, J. Eccles, G. Hamer, L. Kitching, J. Latibeaudiere, J. Rudoni, T. Sakamoto, V. Torp, B. Wilson

Our call: 75% ARS · 16% draw · 9% COV  ·  bookmakers: 79% / 14% / 7%  ·  expected goals 2.47–0.76

Last updated 21 Aug at 19:35

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Coventry goals Arsenal goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Arsenal 0–0 Coventry: 4% Arsenal 0–1 Coventry: 3% Arsenal 0–2 Coventry: 1% Arsenal 0–3 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 0–4 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 1–0 Coventry: 10% Arsenal 1–1 Coventry: 8% Arsenal 1–2 Coventry: 3% Arsenal 1–3 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 1–4 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 2–0 Coventry: 12% Arsenal 2–1 Coventry: 9% Arsenal 2–2 Coventry: 3% Arsenal 2–3 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 2–4 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 3–0 Coventry: 10% Arsenal 3–1 Coventry: 8% Arsenal 3–2 Coventry: 3% Arsenal 3–3 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 3–4 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 4–0 Coventry: 6% Arsenal 4–1 Coventry: 5% Arsenal 4–2 Coventry: 2% Arsenal 4–3 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 4–4 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 5–0 Coventry: 3% Arsenal 5–1 Coventry: 2% Arsenal 5–2 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 5–3 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 6–0 Coventry: 1% Arsenal 6–1 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 6–2 Coventry: <1% Arsenal 6–3 Coventry: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Arsenal win, above it Coventry do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →