Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal vs. Coventry City

Friday 21st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

◀ Arsenal win Coventry win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 15%

Confidence: Very strong

More statsLess
Arsenal crest
ARS COV 2.64 0.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1744 Weak 1430 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.02 2.98 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.05 1.49 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 0.62 0.00 Availability This eleven against the usual one
Coventry City crest

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Arsenal lead it, Exceptional to Weak. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins — about 76% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 76% against 9%, with the draw at 15%. Confidence very strong.
  • For ArsenalGoals 2.64 v 0.79 (decisive); Elo performance 1744 v 1430 (decisive); Availability 0.62 v 0.00 (decisive).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormArsenal W-W-W-W-W. Coventry City have no Premier League record.

NB Coventry City came up from the Championship, and we hold no Championship results, so their half of this comparison rests on the players rather than on past results. The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Coventry City 4-3-3

Provisional starting XI

  1. Raya98%
  2. Calafiori92%
  3. Gabriel83%
  4. White75%
  5. Mosquera62%
  6. Rice98%
  7. Saka77%
  8. Eze75%
  9. Bruno G.NEW73%
  10. Ødegaard62%
  11. Havertz60%
  1. Rushworth
  2. Thomas
  3. Kitching
  4. van Ewijk
  5. Dasilva
  6. Mason-Clark
  7. Torp
  8. Tchaouna
  9. Awoniyi
  10. Thomas-Asante
  11. Simms

Likely subs Arrizabalaga, Meslier, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly, Madueke, Zubimendi, Gyökeres

Likely subs Hamer, Onyeka, Rudoni, Kesler-Hayden, Grimes, Wilson, Bidwell

Doubts Saliba injured, Bruno G. doubtful, J.Timber injured

Doubts Wright injured, Markelo unavailable, Bassette unavailable

Our call: 76% ARS · 15% draw · 9% COV  ·  expected goals 2.64–0.79

Last updated today at 09:41

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Team strength & attack from this XI ARS 76% 1,200
Team strength, attack from this XI & defence from this XI ARS 75% 1,148
Defence from this XI ARS 70% 1,148

Conviction score: 1.22 towards ARS.

Most likely scorelines

COV goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ARS goals → Most likely: 2–0 (11.3%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →