Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea 4–3 Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

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Chelsea win

4–3Full time

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Brighton win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

CHE BHA L-D-W-L-W L-W-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-L-L-W W-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -1.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.45 1.36 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.11 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.4 5.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.43 2.79 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.41 1.13 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 113% 90% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven CHE BHA L-D-W-L-W L-W-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-L-L-L-W W-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -1.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.45 1.36 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.11 2.03 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.4 5.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.43 2.79 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.41 1.13 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 113% 90% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven

The key stat: Attack. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion come out on top, 2.03 against 1.11. In matches like this, the side scoring more freely usually wins – about 72% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – it favours Brighton & Hove Albion; the fine margin sits with Chelsea, who edge home advantage and the strength of this eleven against their usual one.

  • The callKnife-edge – Chelsea 39%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 35%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from home advantage, attacking form and the strength of this eleven against their usual one.
  • For ChelseaXI strength vs usual 113% v 90% (decisive); Goals 1.45 v 1.36 (marginal).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionAttack 2.03 v 1.11 (decisive); Shots on target 5.5 v 3.4 (decisive); GK save rate 71% v 63% (clear).
  • FormChelsea L-D-W-L-W, Brighton & Hove Albion L-W-L-L-W.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Chelsea 3-4-2-1 confirmedBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

26 E. Martínez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 3 W. Fofana 21 J. Hato 45 R. Lavia 10 C. Palmer 27 M. Gusto 17 M. Rogers 7 Pedro Neto 9 João Pedro
1 B. Verbruggen 21 O. Boscagli 5 L. Dunk 44 L. Vušković 24 F. Kadıoğlu 13 P. Groß 27 M. Wieffer 29 M. De Cuyper 35 M. Yalcouyé 25 D. Gómez 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. E. Martínez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. W. Fofana
  5. J. Hato
  6. R. Lavia
  7. C. Palmer
  8. M. Gusto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. Pedro Neto
  11. João Pedro
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. O. Boscagli
  3. L. Dunk
  4. L. Vušković
  5. F. Kadıoğlu
  6. P. Groß
  7. M. Wieffer
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. M. Yalcouyé
  10. D. Gómez
  11. C. Kostoulas

Substitutes J. Acheampong, Estêvão, V. Barco, J. Gittens, M. Caicedo, Pep Chavarría, R. James, M. Penders, D. Welbeck

Substitutes A. Cozier-Duberry, P. David, J. Hadjam, Costinha, M. O'Riley, N. Oriola, I. Osman, J. Steele, P. Struijk

Our call: 39% CHE · 26% draw · 35% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 52% / 24% / 24%  ·  expected goals 1.45–1.36

Last updated 30 Aug at 16:03

What separates them

The lean to Chelsea comes from home advantage, attacking form and the strength of this eleven against their usual one.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brighton goals Chelsea goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Chelsea 0–0 Brighton: 6% Chelsea 0–1 Brighton: 8% Chelsea 0–2 Brighton: 6% Chelsea 0–3 Brighton: 3% Chelsea 0–4 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 0–5 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 0–6 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 1–0 Brighton: 8% Chelsea 1–1 Brighton: 12% Chelsea 1–2 Brighton: 8% Chelsea 1–3 Brighton: 4% Chelsea 1–4 Brighton: 1% Chelsea 1–5 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 1–6 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 2–0 Brighton: 6% Chelsea 2–1 Brighton: 9% Chelsea 2–2 Brighton: 6% Chelsea 2–3 Brighton: 3% Chelsea 2–4 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 2–5 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 2–6 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 3–0 Brighton: 3% Chelsea 3–1 Brighton: 4% Chelsea 3–2 Brighton: 3% Chelsea 3–3 Brighton: 1% Chelsea 3–4 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 3–5 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 4–0 Brighton: 1% Chelsea 4–1 Brighton: 1% Chelsea 4–2 Brighton: 1% Chelsea 4–3 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 4–4 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 5–0 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 5–1 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 5–2 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 5–3 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 6–0 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 6–1 Brighton: <1% Chelsea 6–2 Brighton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Chelsea win, above it Brighton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →