Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Chelsea win Brighton win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Draw 25% · leans CHE by 6 points

More statsLess
Chelsea crest
CHE BHA L-L-D-W-L W-L-W-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.00 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-W W-W-D-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -1.20 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.39 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 64% 71% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.6 5.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.13 1.64 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.40 1.18 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.47 2.78 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

The key stat: GK save rate. This is the widest gap between them. Brighton & Hove Albion come out on top, 71% against 64%. In matches like this, whoever had the more reliable last line usually wins — about 63% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callToo close to call — Chelsea 40%, draw 25%, Brighton & Hove Albion 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For ChelseaGoals 1.53 v 1.39 (marginal).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionShots on target 5.2 v 3.6 (clear); GK save rate 71% v 64% (clear); Attack 1.64 v 1.13 (useful).
  • FormChelsea L-L-D-W-L, Brighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Sánchez98%
  2. LacroixNEW98%
  3. Gusto98%
  4. Disasi98%
  5. Hato97%
  6. Palmer98%
  7. RogersNEW98%
  8. Enzo98%
  9. Neto98%
  10. Caicedo98%
  11. João Pedro98%
  1. Verbruggen98%
  2. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  3. Boscagli98%
  4. StruijkNEW98%
  5. Wieffer92%
  6. Groß98%
  7. Hinshelwood98%
  8. Gomez75%
  9. Ayari41%
  10. O'Riley22%
  11. Georginio24%

Likely subs B.Badiashile, N.Jackson, Colwill, Estêvão, James, Barco, Delap

Likely subs Steele, Dunk, De Cuyper, Coppola, Igor, Kostoulas, Oriola

Doubts Fofana suspended, Welbeck doubtful, Jörgensen unavailable, Henderson doubtful, Chalobah unavailable

Doubts Minteh injured, Baleba injured, Mitoma injured, Buonanotte unavailable, Howell unavailable, Ferguson injured, Tzimas injured, Watson unavailable

Our call: 40% CHE · 25% draw · 34% BHA  ·  expected goals 1.53–1.39

Last updated today at 09:41

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Keeper faced & form at this venue BHA 63% 933
Shots on target & keeper faced BHA 72% 1,193
Shots on target & form at this venue BHA 71% 1,192
Attacking threat & defence from this XI BHA 73% 1,142
Attacking threat BHA 72% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.43 towards BHA.

Most likely scorelines

BHA goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 CHE goals → Most likely: 1–1 (11.8%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →