Which Team Will Win?

Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Nottingham Forest win

◀ Forest win Leeds United win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Nottingham Forest crest
NFO LEE W-W-D-L-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.20 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-W-D-D D-W-D-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 2.38 2.80 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.45 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1527 Average 1498 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Leeds United crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Leeds United: 2.80 to 2.38. In matches like this, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat usually wins — about 71% of the time. It points the other way to our call, though: we still favour Nottingham Forest, who lead on goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callNottingham Forest to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 75% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 1.20 v 0.00 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.40 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedPossession 53% v 47% (useful); XI attacking output 2.80 v 2.38 (useful); XI defensive record 1.40 v 1.45 (marginal).
  • FormNottingham Forest W-W-D-L-D, Leeds United D-W-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Nottingham Forest 4-4-2

Expected starting XI

Leeds United 3-5-2

Expected starting XI

  1. Sels98%
  2. Aina98%
  3. Murillo97%
  4. Milenković83%
  5. N.Williams83%
  6. Gibbs-White81%
  7. I.Sangaré77%
  8. Hudson-Odoi76%
  9. Hutchinson59%
  10. Igor Jesus94%
  11. Wood59%
  1. TraffordNEW98%
  2. Justin98%
  3. Bijol97%
  4. Bogle96%
  5. Ampadu98%
  6. Stach98%
  7. Tanaka96%
  8. Aaronson77%
  9. Okafor75%
  10. Calvert-Lewin98%
  11. Nmecha27%

Likely subs John, Morato, Jair Cunha, Netz, Dominguez, Bakwa, Abbott

Likely subs Perri, Rodon, Wilson, James, Longstaff, Muharemović, Elvedi

Doubts Savona injured, Yates injured

Doubts Gudmundsson injured, Gruev injured, Bornauw unavailable, Harrison unavailable, Gnonto injured, Piroe unavailable, Mateo Joseph injured

Our call: 44% NFO · 25% draw · 30% LEE  ·  expected goals 1.58–1.27

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Attack from this XI & keeper faced LEE 71% 1,200
Defence from this XI & keeper faced LEE 67% 1,148
Attack from this XI LEE 73% 1,200
Team strength & form at this venue NFO 75% 933
Shots on target NFO 72% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.01 towards NFO.

Most likely scorelines

LEE goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 NFO goals → Most likely: 1–1 (11.9%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →