Which Team Will Win?

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds United

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Nottingham Forest win

0–1Full time

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Leeds United win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Slight

NFO LEE W-W-D-L-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.20 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-W-D-D D-W-D-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.19 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.47 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.50 1.40 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.93 2.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven NFO LEE W-W-D-L-D D-W-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.20 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-W-D-D D-W-D-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.53 1.19 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.47 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.50 1.40 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.93 2.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. It goes to Leeds United: 1.40 to 1.47. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 67% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it leans Leeds United's way, and the verdict still goes to Nottingham Forest, who lead on goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting.

  • The callNottingham Forest to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 75% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 1.20 v 0.00 (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.40 (useful).
  • For Leeds UnitedPossession 53% v 47% (useful); XI attacking output 2.10 v 1.93 (slight); XI defensive record 1.40 v 1.47 (slight).
  • FormNottingham Forest W-W-D-L-D, Leeds United D-W-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmedLeeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

26 M. Sels 31 N. Milenković 5 Murillo 23 Jair Cunha 3 N. Williams 24 J. McAtee 6 I. Sangaré 34 O. Aina 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 11 Igor Jesus
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 6 J. Rodon 15 J. Bijol 24 J. Justin 4 E. Ampadu 18 A. Stach 2 J. Bogle 10 H. Wilson 11 B. Aaronson 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. M. Sels
  2. N. Milenković
  3. Murillo
  4. Jair Cunha
  5. N. Williams
  6. J. McAtee
  7. I. Sangaré
  8. O. Aina
  9. D. Ndoye
  10. M. Gibbs-White
  11. Igor Jesus
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. J. Rodon
  4. J. Bijol
  5. J. Justin
  6. E. Ampadu
  7. A. Stach
  8. J. Bogle
  9. H. Wilson
  10. B. Aaronson
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin

Substitutes Z. Abbott, O. Diomande, N. Domínguez, C. Hudson-Odoi, A. Kalimuendo, John Victor, L. Netz, X. Schlager, C. Wood

Substitutes A. Cresswell, N. Elvedi, Lucas Perri, D. James, J. Lienou, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, N. Okafor, A. Tanaka

Our call: 45% NFO · 26% draw · 29% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 41% / 28% / 30%  ·  expected goals 1.53–1.19

Last updated 22 Aug at 14:32

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Leeds United goals Forest goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Forest 0–0 Leeds United: 7% Forest 0–1 Leeds United: 7% Forest 0–2 Leeds United: 5% Forest 0–3 Leeds United: 2% Forest 0–4 Leeds United: <1% Forest 0–5 Leeds United: <1% Forest 1–0 Leeds United: 10% Forest 1–1 Leeds United: 12% Forest 1–2 Leeds United: 7% Forest 1–3 Leeds United: 3% Forest 1–4 Leeds United: <1% Forest 1–5 Leeds United: <1% Forest 2–0 Leeds United: 8% Forest 2–1 Leeds United: 9% Forest 2–2 Leeds United: 5% Forest 2–3 Leeds United: 2% Forest 2–4 Leeds United: <1% Forest 2–5 Leeds United: <1% Forest 3–0 Leeds United: 4% Forest 3–1 Leeds United: 5% Forest 3–2 Leeds United: 3% Forest 3–3 Leeds United: 1% Forest 3–4 Leeds United: <1% Forest 3–5 Leeds United: <1% Forest 4–0 Leeds United: 1% Forest 4–1 Leeds United: 2% Forest 4–2 Leeds United: 1% Forest 4–3 Leeds United: <1% Forest 4–4 Leeds United: <1% Forest 5–0 Leeds United: <1% Forest 5–1 Leeds United: <1% Forest 5–2 Leeds United: <1% Forest 5–3 Leeds United: <1% Forest 6–0 Leeds United: <1% Forest 6–1 Leeds United: <1% Forest 6–2 Leeds United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Forest win, above it Leeds United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →