Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United 5–2 Ipswich Town

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

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Manchester United win

5–2Full time

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Ipswich Town win ▶ 18% draw chance bookmakers
Ipswich Town crest

Confidence: Very strong

MUN IPS W-D-W-W-L D-L-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-W-W-W W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.30 0.80 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 70% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 5.4 2.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game Strong 1613 Very weak 1375 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.12 2.52 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.80 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game MUN IPS W-D-W-W-L D-L-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-W-W-W W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.30 0.80 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 70% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 5.4 2.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game Strong 1613 Very weak 1375 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.12 2.52 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.80 1.01 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 70% to 70%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here – 72% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 71% against 11%, with the draw at 18%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and home advantage – the strongest pull the other way is the rest advantage.
  • For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.4 v 2.6 (decisive); Elo performance 1613 v 1375 (decisive); Goals 2.30 v 0.80 (decisive).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormManchester United W-D-W-W-L, Ipswich Town D-L-L-L-W.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmedIpswich Town 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 S. Lammens 23 L. Shaw 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 2 Diogo Dalot 18 Y. Tielemans 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 10 Matheus Cunha
37 K. Scherpen 3 L. Davis 24 J. Greaves 6 I. Diop 26 D. O'Shea 23 S. Lukić 32 M. Núñez 38 D. Maeda 10 J. Enciso 7 A. Fatawu 19 Emersonn
  1. S. Lammens
  2. L. Shaw
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. Diogo Dalot
  6. Y. Tielemans
  7. K. Mainoo
  8. M. Rashford
  9. Bruno Fernandes
  10. B. Mbeumo
  11. Matheus Cunha
  1. K. Scherpen
  2. L. Davis
  3. J. Greaves
  4. I. Diop
  5. D. O'Shea
  6. S. Lukić
  7. M. Núñez
  8. D. Maeda
  9. J. Enciso
  10. A. Fatawu
  11. Emersonn

Substitutes K. Darlow, P. Dorgu, A. Heaven, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, Andrey Santos, L. Yoro, J. Zirkzee, B. Šeško

Substitutes C. Akpom, J. Clarke, D. Furlong, C. Kipré, K. McAteer, A. Ouattara, E. Palacios, S. Egeli, C. Walton

Our call: 71% MUN · 18% draw · 11% IPS  ·  bookmakers: 67% / 19% / 14%  ·  expected goals 2.30–0.80

Last updated 30 Aug at 16:09

What separates them

The lean to Man United comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and home advantage.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Ipswich Town goals Man United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man United 0–0 Ipswich Town: 5% Man United 0–1 Ipswich Town: 3% Man United 0–2 Ipswich Town: 1% Man United 0–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 0–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 1–0 Ipswich Town: 10% Man United 1–1 Ipswich Town: 8% Man United 1–2 Ipswich Town: 3% Man United 1–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 1–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 2–0 Ipswich Town: 12% Man United 2–1 Ipswich Town: 10% Man United 2–2 Ipswich Town: 4% Man United 2–3 Ipswich Town: 1% Man United 2–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 3–0 Ipswich Town: 9% Man United 3–1 Ipswich Town: 7% Man United 3–2 Ipswich Town: 3% Man United 3–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 3–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 4–0 Ipswich Town: 5% Man United 4–1 Ipswich Town: 4% Man United 4–2 Ipswich Town: 2% Man United 4–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 4–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 5–0 Ipswich Town: 2% Man United 5–1 Ipswich Town: 2% Man United 5–2 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 5–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 6–0 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 6–1 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 6–2 Ipswich Town: <1% Man United 6–3 Ipswich Town: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man United win, above it Ipswich Town do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →