Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United vs. Ipswich Town

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester United win

◀ Man United win Ipswich Town win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 18%

Confidence: Very strong

More statsLess
Manchester United crest
MUN IPS W-W-D-W-W L-D-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.20 -1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-L-W-W-W W-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 55% 45% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.31 0.82 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 70% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 5.4 2.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game Very strong 1628 Very weak 1363 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.38 1.52 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.76 0.84 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Ipswich Town crest

The key stat: GK save rate. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 70% to 58%. the side with the goalkeeper in better form normally comes out on top here — 72% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 71% against 11%, with the draw at 18%. Confidence very strong.
  • For Manchester UnitedGoal difference 1.20 v -1.60 (decisive); GK save rate 70% v 58% (decisive); Shots on target 5.4 v 2.7 (decisive).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormManchester United W-W-D-W-W, Ipswich Town L-D-L-L-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Lammens98%
  2. Maguire98%
  3. Shaw98%
  4. Martinez98%
  5. Dalot81%
  6. B.Fernandes98%
  7. Cunha98%
  8. Mainoo98%
  9. TielemansNEW80%
  10. Amad79%
  11. Šeško58%
  1. Walton98%
  2. O'Shea98%
  3. Greaves98%
  4. FurlongNEW98%
  5. DiopNEW83%
  6. LukićNEW98%
  7. Enciso94%
  8. McAteerNEW81%
  9. FatawuNEW63%
  10. FlorentinoNEW61%
  11. Al-Hamadi4%

Likely subs Mazraoui, Amass, Mbeumo, Darlow, Andrey Santos, Heaven, Rashford

Likely subs Palmer, Button, Johnson, Davis, Ogbene, Clarke, Philogene

Doubts De Ligt injured, Darlow doubtful, Bayindir unavailable, Heaton injured, Šeško doubtful, Mount doubtful, Fredricson unavailable, Ugarte injured

Doubts Burns unavailable, Taylor injured, Hirst unavailable, Szmodics unavailable, Matusiwa injured

Our call: 71% MUN · 18% draw · 11% IPS  ·  expected goals 2.31–0.82

Last updated today at 14:46

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Keeper faced & shots on target MUN 72% 1,193
Team strength & shots on target MUN 77% 1,193
Team strength & defence from this XI MUN 75% 1,148
Attacking threat & keeper faced MUN 72% 1,193
Attacking threat MUN 72% 1,193

Conviction score: 1.42 towards MUN.

Most likely scorelines

IPS goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 MUN goals → Most likely: 2–0 (11.7%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →