Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland vs. Fulham

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Sunderland win Fulham win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 27%

Draw 27% · leans SUN by 2 points

More statsLess
Sunderland crest
SUN FUL L-D-D-W-W W-L-L-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.40 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-L-D-W D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.32 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 66% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.33 1.22 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Average 1492 Above average 1532 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.0 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 2.30 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven
Fulham crest

The key stat: GK save rate. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 75% to 66%. When this gap appears, whoever had the more reliable last line tends to win, in around 63% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callToo close to call — Sunderland 38%, draw 27%, Fulham 35%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For SunderlandHome and away form L-W-L-D-W v D-L-D-L-D (useful); Shots on target 4.0 v 3.6 (slight); Goal difference at this venue -0.80 v -1.00 (marginal).
  • For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 66% (clear); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); XI defensive record 1.22 v 1.33 (slight).
  • FormSunderland L-D-D-W-W, Fulham W-L-L-D-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Roefs98%
  2. Mukiele98%
  3. Hume98%
  4. Alderete94%
  5. O'Nien84%
  6. E.Le Fée98%
  7. Xhaka98%
  8. Sadiki98%
  9. Angulo59%
  10. Rigg55%
  11. Brobbey96%
  1. Leno98%
  2. Tete98%
  3. Bassey98%
  4. Castagne98%
  5. Robinson81%
  6. Berge97%
  7. Iwobi95%
  8. Smith Rowe93%
  9. Bobb42%
  10. Kevin42%
  11. Muniz60%

Likely subs Reinildo, Ballard, Ellborg, Talbi, Diarra, Mundle, Seelt

Likely subs Sessegnon, J.Cuenca, Reed, King, Kusi-Asare, Charles, Gonzalo

Doubts Adingra injured, Masuaku unavailable, Hjelde unavailable, Patterson unavailable

Doubts Andersen suspended, Cairney injured

Our call: 38% SUN · 27% draw · 35% FUL  ·  expected goals 1.32–1.27

Last updated today at 09:41

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Keeper faced & form at this venue SUN 63% 933
Defence from this XI & keeper faced FUL 69% 1,148
Team strength & form at this venue FUL 75% 933
Team strength & shots on target FUL 77% 1,193
Defence from this XI FUL 70% 1,148

Conviction score: 0.13 towards FUL.

Most likely scorelines

FUL goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 SUN goals → Most likely: 1–1 (13.0%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →