Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland 1–0 Fulham

Sunday 30th August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
MoreLess

Sunderland win

1–0Full time

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Fulham win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Fulham crest

Knife-edge – Sunderland shade it

SUN FUL D-D-W-W-L L-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-L-D-W D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.40 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 65% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.16 2.40 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Average 1480 Average 1521 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.3 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.38 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven SUN FUL D-D-W-W-L L-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-L-D-W D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -0.80 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.40 1.28 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 65% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.16 2.40 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Average 1480 Average 1521 Elo performance 1500 is average 4.3 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.38 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: GK save rate. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 72% to 65%. When this gap appears, whoever had the more reliable last line tends to win, in around 63% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Fulham; the fine margin sits with Sunderland, who edge home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and recent shots on target.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 39%, draw 27%, Fulham 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Sunderland comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and recent shots on target.
  • For SunderlandHome and away form L-W-L-D-W v D-L-D-L-D (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.60 (useful); Shots on target 4.3 v 3.7 (slight).
  • For FulhamGK save rate 72% v 65% (clear); XI attacking output 2.40 v 2.16 (slight); Possession 51% v 49% (slight).
  • FormSunderland D-D-W-W-L, Fulham L-L-D-W-L.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Sunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmedFulham 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

22 R. Roefs 17 Reinildo Mandava 5 D. Ballard 20 N. Mukiele 12 T. Meunier 34 G. Xhaka 27 N. Sadiki 10 N. Angulo 28 E. Le Fée 32 T. Hume 9 B. Brobbey
1 B. Leno 33 A. Robinson 3 C. Bassey 5 J. Andersen 21 T. Castagne 17 A. Iwobi 16 S. Berge 8 César Palacios 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 7 Gonzalo García
  1. R. Roefs
  2. Reinildo Mandava
  3. D. Ballard
  4. N. Mukiele
  5. T. Meunier
  6. G. Xhaka
  7. N. Sadiki
  8. N. Angulo
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Hume
  11. B. Brobbey
  1. B. Leno
  2. A. Robinson
  3. C. Bassey
  4. J. Andersen
  5. T. Castagne
  6. A. Iwobi
  7. S. Berge
  8. César Palacios
  9. J. King
  10. O. Bobb
  11. Gonzalo García

Substitutes J. Ahoka, O. Alderete, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, W. Isidor, R. Mundle, L. O'Nien, C. Rigg, C. Talbi

Substitutes M. Zepa, S. Charles, Jorge Cuenca, B. Lecomte, Rodrigo Muniz, H. Reed, Kevin, R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe

Our call: 39% SUN · 27% draw · 34% FUL  ·  bookmakers: 39% / 29% / 32%  ·  expected goals 1.40–1.28

Last updated 30 Aug at 13:07

What separates them

The lean to Sunderland comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Fulham goals Sunderland goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Sunderland 0–0 Fulham: 7% Sunderland 0–1 Fulham: 8% Sunderland 0–2 Fulham: 6% Sunderland 0–3 Fulham: 2% Sunderland 0–4 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 0–5 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 1–0 Fulham: 9% Sunderland 1–1 Fulham: 13% Sunderland 1–2 Fulham: 8% Sunderland 1–3 Fulham: 3% Sunderland 1–4 Fulham: 1% Sunderland 1–5 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 1–6 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 2–0 Fulham: 7% Sunderland 2–1 Fulham: 9% Sunderland 2–2 Fulham: 6% Sunderland 2–3 Fulham: 2% Sunderland 2–4 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 2–5 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 3–0 Fulham: 3% Sunderland 3–1 Fulham: 4% Sunderland 3–2 Fulham: 3% Sunderland 3–3 Fulham: 1% Sunderland 3–4 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 3–5 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 4–0 Fulham: 1% Sunderland 4–1 Fulham: 1% Sunderland 4–2 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 4–3 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 4–4 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 5–0 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 5–1 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 5–2 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 5–3 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 6–0 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 6–1 Fulham: <1% Sunderland 6–2 Fulham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Sunderland win, above it Fulham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →