Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Newcastle win Liverpool win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Draw 26% · leans LIV by 9 points

More statsLess
Newcastle United crest
NEW LIV L-W-D-W-L W-L-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-L-L-W-W L-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.31 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.51 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1546 Very strong 1635 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.57 1.44 Defence Conceded per game 67% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Liverpool crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.40 against 1.51. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins — about 74% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callToo close to call — Newcastle United 33%, draw 26%, Liverpool 41%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Elo performance 1635 v 1546 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.4 (slight).
  • For Newcastle UnitedHome and away form W-L-L-W-W v L-L-W-L-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear); Goal difference 0.20 v -0.20 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United L-W-D-W-L, Liverpool W-L-D-L-D.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Pope98%
  2. Thiaw98%
  3. Schär98%
  4. Botman98%
  5. Burn81%
  6. L.Miley98%
  7. J.Murphy73%
  8. Willock62%
  9. J.Ramsey62%
  10. Barnes27%
  11. Osula93%
  1. A.Becker98%
  2. Virgil98%
  3. Tsimikas94%
  4. Kerkez43%
  5. Frimpong42%
  6. Szoboszlai98%
  7. Mac Allister98%
  8. Gakpo98%
  9. Gravenberch79%
  10. C.Jones75%
  11. Isak42%

Likely subs Hall, Woltemade, Elanga, Wissa, Neave, Touré, Steur

Likely subs Mamardashvili, Woodman, Wirtz, Ngumoha, Endo, Elliott, Chiesa

Doubts Joelinton injured, Livramento injured, A.Murphy unavailable

Doubts C.Jones doubtful, Bradley injured, Ekitiké injured, Bajcetic injured, Gomez injured, Danns injured, Jaros injured, Pecsi unavailable

Our call: 33% NEW · 26% draw · 41% LIV  ·  expected goals 1.31–1.50

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Defence from this XI & team strength LIV 74% 809
Defence faced & team strength LIV 73% 841
Keeper faced & form at this venue NEW 63% 933
Defence from this XI & form at this venue NEW 68% 1,141
Shots on target LIV 72% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.34 towards LIV.

Most likely scorelines

LIV goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 NEW goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.2%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →