Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United 2–2 Liverpool

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Liverpool win

2–2Full time

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Liverpool win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Liverpool crest

Knife-edge – Liverpool shade it

NEW LIV L-W-D-W-L W-L-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-L-L-W-W L-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.59 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.53 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1546 Very strong 1635 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.85 2.49 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 70% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW LIV L-W-D-W-L W-L-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-L-L-W-W L-L-W-L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.41 1.59 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.53 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Above average 1546 Very strong 1635 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.85 2.49 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 70% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.4 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Liverpool come out on top, 1.40 against 1.53. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 73% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Newcastle United 34%, draw 25%, Liverpool 42%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For LiverpoolPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Elo performance 1635 v 1546 (useful); Shots on target 5.1 v 4.4 (slight).
  • For Newcastle UnitedHome and away form W-L-L-W-W v L-L-W-L-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear); GK save rate 70% v 67% (useful).
  • FormNewcastle United L-W-D-W-L, Liverpool W-L-D-L-D.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmedLiverpool 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 37 A. Dedić 14 S. Steur 67 L. Miley 11 H. Barnes 9 Y. Wissa 19 A. Elanga 10 W. Osula
1 Alisson Becker 6 M. Kerkez 4 V. van Dijk 5 J. Jacquet 30 J. Frimpong 38 R. Gravenberch 8 D. Szoboszlai 18 C. Gakpo 7 F. Wirtz 73 R. Ngumoha 9 A. Isak
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. A. Dedić
  6. S. Steur
  7. L. Miley
  8. H. Barnes
  9. Y. Wissa
  10. A. Elanga
  11. W. Osula
  1. Alisson Becker
  2. M. Kerkez
  3. V. van Dijk
  4. J. Jacquet
  5. J. Frimpong
  6. R. Gravenberch
  7. D. Szoboszlai
  8. C. Gakpo
  9. F. Wirtz
  10. R. Ngumoha
  11. A. Isak

Substitutes A. Bamba, E. Jaouen, J. Murphy, J. Ramsey, F. Schär, L. Shahar, B. Touré, J. Willock, N. Woltemade

Substitutes R. Araujo, W. Endo, L. Koumas, A. Mac Allister, G. Mamardashvili, J. McConnell, Víctor Muñoz, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Our call: 34% NEW · 25% draw · 42% LIV  ·  bookmakers: 26% / 24% / 49%  ·  expected goals 1.41–1.59

Last updated 23 Aug at 16:01

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Liverpool goals Newcastle goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Newcastle 0–0 Liverpool: 5% Newcastle 0–1 Liverpool: 8% Newcastle 0–2 Liverpool: 6% Newcastle 0–3 Liverpool: 3% Newcastle 0–4 Liverpool: 1% Newcastle 0–5 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 0–6 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 1–0 Liverpool: 7% Newcastle 1–1 Liverpool: 11% Newcastle 1–2 Liverpool: 9% Newcastle 1–3 Liverpool: 5% Newcastle 1–4 Liverpool: 2% Newcastle 1–5 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 1–6 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 2–0 Liverpool: 5% Newcastle 2–1 Liverpool: 8% Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool: 6% Newcastle 2–3 Liverpool: 3% Newcastle 2–4 Liverpool: 1% Newcastle 2–5 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 2–6 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 3–0 Liverpool: 2% Newcastle 3–1 Liverpool: 4% Newcastle 3–2 Liverpool: 3% Newcastle 3–3 Liverpool: 2% Newcastle 3–4 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 3–5 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 3–6 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 4–0 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 4–1 Liverpool: 1% Newcastle 4–2 Liverpool: 1% Newcastle 4–3 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 4–4 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 4–5 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 5–0 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 5–1 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 5–2 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 5–3 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 5–4 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 6–0 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 6–1 Liverpool: <1% Newcastle 6–2 Liverpool: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Newcastle win, above it Liverpool do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →