Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal

Monday 31st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

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Arsenal win

0–1Full time

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Arsenal win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Slight

AVL ARS L-D-W-W-L W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 1.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.20 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 0.90 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.75 0.78 Defence Conceded per game Strong 1606 Exceptional 1746 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.22 1.79 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.94 2.55 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven AVL ARS L-D-W-W-L W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.40 1.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.20 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 0.90 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.75 0.78 Defence Conceded per game Strong 1606 Exceptional 1746 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.22 1.79 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.94 2.55 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, 0.90 against 1.65. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 70% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 47% against 27%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalXI defensive record 0.90 v 1.65 (decisive); Defence 0.78 v 1.75 (decisive); Goal difference 1.80 v -0.40 (decisive).
  • For Aston VillaNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormAston Villa L-D-W-W-L, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmedArsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 22 I. Maatsen 14 Pau Torres 3 V. Lindelöf 2 M. Cash 53 G. Hemmings 8 B. Kamara 10 E. Buendía 6 R. Barkley 7 J. McGinn 11 N. Jackson
1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 3 Cristhian Mosquera 4 B. White 41 D. Rice 49 M. Lewis-Skelly 17 C. Tzolis 8 M. Ødegaard 7 B. Saka 29 K. Havertz
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. I. Maatsen
  3. Pau Torres
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. M. Cash
  6. G. Hemmings
  7. B. Kamara
  8. E. Buendía
  9. R. Barkley
  10. J. McGinn
  11. N. Jackson
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. Cristhian Mosquera
  5. B. White
  6. D. Rice
  7. M. Lewis-Skelly
  8. C. Tzolis
  9. M. Ødegaard
  10. B. Saka
  11. K. Havertz

Substitutes T. Abraham, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, A. Garnacho, L. Lynch, T. Mings, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, Alysson

Substitutes Kepa Arrizabalaga, E. Eze, Bruno Guimarães, V. Gyökeres, P. Hincapié, E. Konsa, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi

Our call: 27% AVL · 26% draw · 47% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 16% / 23% / 62%  ·  expected goals 1.09–1.54

Last updated 31 Aug at 19:21

What separates them

The lean to Arsenal comes from the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Arsenal goals Aston Villa goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Aston Villa 0–0 Arsenal: 7% Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal: 11% Aston Villa 0–2 Arsenal: 9% Aston Villa 0–3 Arsenal: 4% Aston Villa 0–4 Arsenal: 2% Aston Villa 0–5 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 0–6 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 1–0 Arsenal: 8% Aston Villa 1–1 Arsenal: 12% Aston Villa 1–2 Arsenal: 9% Aston Villa 1–3 Arsenal: 5% Aston Villa 1–4 Arsenal: 2% Aston Villa 1–5 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 1–6 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 2–0 Arsenal: 4% Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal: 7% Aston Villa 2–2 Arsenal: 5% Aston Villa 2–3 Arsenal: 3% Aston Villa 2–4 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 2–5 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 2–6 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 3–0 Arsenal: 2% Aston Villa 3–1 Arsenal: 2% Aston Villa 3–2 Arsenal: 2% Aston Villa 3–3 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 3–4 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 3–5 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 4–0 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 4–1 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 4–2 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 4–3 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 4–4 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 5–0 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 5–1 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 5–2 Arsenal: <1% Aston Villa 5–3 Arsenal: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Aston Villa win, above it Arsenal do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →