Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

Monday 31st August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Arsenal win

◀ Aston Villa win Arsenal win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Aston Villa crest
AVL ARS L-L-D-W-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.20 1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-W-L-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.20 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.66 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.20 3.02 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 76% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Strong 1616 Exceptional 1744 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.38 1.05 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.38 1.74 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Arsenal crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, 3.02 against 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 46% against 29%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence slight.
  • For ArsenalGK save rate 76% v 63% (decisive); XI defensive record 1.05 v 1.38 (clear); XI attacking output 3.02 v 2.20 (clear).
  • For Aston VillaPossession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • FormAston Villa L-L-D-W-W, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Martinez98%
  2. Konsa98%
  3. Mings98%
  4. Lindelöf95%
  5. Cash82%
  6. Kamara98%
  7. Bogarde78%
  8. McGinn78%
  9. Barkley63%
  10. Buendía60%
  11. Watkins81%
  1. Raya98%
  2. Calafiori92%
  3. Gabriel83%
  4. White75%
  5. Mosquera62%
  6. Rice98%
  7. Saka77%
  8. Eze75%
  9. Bruno G.NEW73%
  10. Ødegaard62%
  11. Havertz60%

Likely subs M.Bizot, Pau, Maatsen, Bailey, A.García, Abraham, Garnacho

Likely subs Arrizabalaga, Meslier, Hincapie, Lewis-Skelly, Madueke, Zubimendi, Gyökeres

Doubts Gomes injured, Onana injured, Digne unavailable, Abraham doubtful, Nedeljkovic unavailable, Manzambi injured, Madjo injured, Iling Jr unavailable

Doubts Saliba injured, Bruno G. doubtful, J.Timber injured

Our call: 29% AVL · 25% draw · 46% ARS  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.66

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Attack from this XI & keeper faced ARS 73% 1,200
Form at this venue & team strength ARS 72% 840
Team strength & form at this venue ARS 75% 1,192
Attack from this XI & defence from this XI ARS 74% 1,148
Defence from this XI & keeper faced ARS 69% 1,148

Conviction score: 0.81 towards ARS.

Most likely scorelines

ARS goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 AVL goals → Most likely: 1–1 (11.6%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →