Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City 2–1 Bournemouth

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Manchester City win

2–1Full time

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Bournemouth win ▶ 21% draw chance bookmakers
Bournemouth crest

Confidence: Strong

MCI BOU D-W-W-D-L D-W-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.00 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-W-W-L D-W-W-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.20 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.12 0.97 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 6.1 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Exceptional 1724 Strong 1594 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.94 2.46 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.91 1.69 Attack Goals and expected goals per game MCI BOU D-W-W-D-L D-W-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.00 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-W-W-L D-W-W-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.20 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.12 0.97 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 6.1 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 70% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Exceptional 1724 Strong 1594 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.94 2.46 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.91 1.69 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: Shots on target. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester City: 6.1 to 3.9. Historically, the side testing the goalkeeper more often takes these roughly 70% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 63% against 16%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester CityShots on target 6.1 v 3.9 (decisive); Goals 2.12 v 0.97 (clear); Possession 56% v 44% (clear).
  • For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 70% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-W-D v D-W-W-W-L (marginal).
  • FormManchester City D-W-W-D-L, Bournemouth D-W-W-D-D.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmedBournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 24 J. Gvardiol 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben Dias 45 A. Khusanov 33 N. O'Reilly 5 E. Anderson 82 R. Lewis 47 P. Foden 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 5 J. Hill 14 António Silva 15 A. Smith 8 A. Scott 4 L. Cook 16 M. Tavernier 19 J. Kluivert 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. J. Gvardiol
  3. M. Guéhi
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. A. Khusanov
  6. N. O'Reilly
  7. E. Anderson
  8. R. Lewis
  9. P. Foden
  10. A. Semenyo
  11. E. Haaland
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. J. Hill
  4. António Silva
  5. A. Smith
  6. A. Scott
  7. L. Cook
  8. M. Tavernier
  9. J. Kluivert
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson

Substitutes R. Aït-Nouri, R. Cherki, Nico González, J. Grealish, M. Kovačić, Omar Marmoush, Matheus Nunes, G. Rulli, Vitor Reis

Substitutes T. Adams, D. Brooks, W. Dennis, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, D. Jebbison, Á. Rodríguez, Juanlu Sánchez, A. Tóth

Our call: 63% MCI · 21% draw · 16% BOU  ·  bookmakers: 64% / 20% / 16%  ·  expected goals 2.12–0.97

Last updated 23 Aug at 13:31

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Bournemouth goals Man City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man City 0–0 Bournemouth: 5% Man City 0–1 Bournemouth: 4% Man City 0–2 Bournemouth: 2% Man City 0–3 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 0–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 1–0 Bournemouth: 9% Man City 1–1 Bournemouth: 10% Man City 1–2 Bournemouth: 5% Man City 1–3 Bournemouth: 1% Man City 1–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 1–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 2–0 Bournemouth: 10% Man City 2–1 Bournemouth: 10% Man City 2–2 Bournemouth: 5% Man City 2–3 Bournemouth: 2% Man City 2–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 2–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 3–0 Bournemouth: 7% Man City 3–1 Bournemouth: 7% Man City 3–2 Bournemouth: 3% Man City 3–3 Bournemouth: 1% Man City 3–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 3–5 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 4–0 Bournemouth: 4% Man City 4–1 Bournemouth: 4% Man City 4–2 Bournemouth: 2% Man City 4–3 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 4–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 5–0 Bournemouth: 2% Man City 5–1 Bournemouth: 2% Man City 5–2 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 5–3 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 5–4 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 6–0 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 6–1 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 6–2 Bournemouth: <1% Man City 6–3 Bournemouth: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man City win, above it Bournemouth do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →