Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City vs. Bournemouth

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

◀ Man City win Bournemouth win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 20%

Confidence: Strong

More statsLess
Manchester City crest
MCI BOU D-W-W-D-L D-W-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 1.00 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-W-W-L D-W-W-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 1.20 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.16 0.98 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 3.15 2.40 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 6.1 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 70% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Exceptional 1724 Strong 1594 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.91 1.69 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Bournemouth crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Manchester City: 3.15 to 2.40. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 74% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 64% against 16%, with the draw at 20%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester CityShots on target 6.1 v 3.9 (decisive); Goals 2.16 v 0.98 (clear); Possession 56% v 44% (clear).
  • For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 70% (slight); Home and away form D-W-W-W-D v D-W-W-W-L (marginal).
  • FormManchester City D-W-W-D-L, Bournemouth D-W-W-D-D.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Donnarumma98%
  2. O'Reilly98%
  3. Guéhi98%
  4. Khusanov98%
  5. Matheus N.98%
  6. Semenyo94%
  7. AndersonNEW81%
  8. Grealish81%
  9. Foden45%
  10. Savinho44%
  11. Haaland98%
  1. Petrović98%
  2. Hill98%
  3. Truffert98%
  4. Smith61%
  5. Diakité38%
  6. Tavernier98%
  7. Scott98%
  8. Rayan79%
  9. Adams47%
  10. Kluivert44%
  11. Evanilson95%

Likely subs Bettinelli, Rúben, Aït-Nouri, Gvardiol, Cherki, Lewis, N.Gonzalez

Likely subs Forster, Cook, Tóth.A, Brooks, Gannon-Doak, Soler, Rodríguez

Doubts Rodrigo unavailable, Doku injured, Phillips unavailable, Reijnders unavailable, Alleyne unavailable

Doubts Kroupi.Jr injured, Christie suspended, Adams doubtful, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured, Brooks doubtful, Adli injured, Soler doubtful

Our call: 64% MCI · 20% draw · 16% BOU  ·  expected goals 2.16–0.98

Last updated today at 14:46

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Attack from this XI & shots on target MCI 74% 1,193
Shots on target & keeper faced MCI 70% 1,193
Form at this venue & team strength MCI 72% 840
Team strength & form at this venue MCI 75% 1,192
Attack from this XI & keeper faced MCI 71% 1,200

Conviction score: 0.71 towards MCI.

Most likely scorelines

BOU goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 MCI goals → Most likely: 2–0 (10.1%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →