Which Team Will Win?

Fulham vs. Chelsea

Monday 24th August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Fulham win Chelsea win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 27%

Draw 27% · leans FUL by 7 points

More statsLess
Fulham crest
FUL CHE W-L-L-D-W L-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.35 1.19 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.22 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 64% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.20 2.47 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.20 1.47 Defence Conceded per game 1.28 1.13 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Chelsea crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 1.22 to 1.40. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the more solid defence tends to win, in around 69% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callToo close to call — Fulham 40%, draw 27%, Chelsea 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 64% (decisive); Home and away form L-W-W-L-W v W-L-L-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear).
  • For ChelseaXI attacking output 2.47 v 2.20 (slight); Possession 51% v 49% (marginal).
  • FormFulham W-L-L-D-W, Chelsea L-L-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Leno98%
  2. Tete98%
  3. Bassey98%
  4. Castagne98%
  5. Robinson81%
  6. Berge97%
  7. Iwobi95%
  8. Smith Rowe93%
  9. Bobb42%
  10. Kevin42%
  11. Muniz60%
  1. Sánchez98%
  2. LacroixNEW98%
  3. Gusto98%
  4. Disasi98%
  5. Hato97%
  6. Palmer98%
  7. RogersNEW98%
  8. Enzo98%
  9. Neto98%
  10. Caicedo98%
  11. João Pedro98%

Likely subs Sessegnon, J.Cuenca, Reed, King, Kusi-Asare, Charles, Gonzalo

Likely subs B.Badiashile, N.Jackson, Colwill, Estêvão, James, Barco, Delap

Doubts Andersen suspended, Cairney injured

Doubts Fofana suspended, Welbeck doubtful, Jörgensen unavailable, Henderson doubtful, Chalobah unavailable

Our call: 40% FUL · 27% draw · 33% CHE  ·  expected goals 1.35–1.19

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Defence from this XI & keeper faced FUL 69% 1,148
Attack from this XI & keeper faced CHE 71% 1,200
Defence from this XI & form at this venue FUL 68% 1,141
Defence faced & form at this venue FUL 70% 1,192
Defence faced FUL 70% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.02 towards FUL.

Most likely scorelines

CHE goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 FUL goals → Most likely: 1–1 (13.0%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →