Which Team Will Win?

Fulham 2–3 Chelsea

Monday 24th August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Fulham win

2–3Full time

Fulham crest
◀ Fulham win Chelsea win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Fulham shade it

FUL CHE W-L-L-D-W L-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.43 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 75% 64% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.20 1.47 Defence Conceded per game 1.29 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1532 Above average 1560 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.6 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game FUL CHE W-L-L-D-W L-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.20 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-L-W W-L-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.43 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 75% 64% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.20 1.47 Defence Conceded per game 1.29 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1532 Above average 1560 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.6 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: GK save rate. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Fulham: 75% to 64%. When this gap appears, whoever had the more reliable last line tends to win, in around 63% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callKnife-edge – Fulham 42%, draw 27%, Chelsea 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For FulhamGK save rate 75% v 64% (decisive); Home and away form L-W-W-L-W v W-L-L-D-L (clear); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -0.80 (clear).
  • For ChelseaPossession 51% v 49% (marginal); Elo performance 1560 v 1532 (marginal).
  • FormFulham W-L-L-D-W, Chelsea L-L-D-W-L.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Fulham 4-2-3-1 confirmedChelsea 3-4-3 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-3

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Leno 33 A. Robinson 4 Jorge Cuenca 3 C. Bassey 21 T. Castagne 16 S. Berge 24 J. King 8 César Palacios 17 A. Iwobi 14 O. Bobb 7 Gonzalo García
1 Robert Sánchez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 34 J. Acheampong 21 J. Hato 45 R. Lavia 24 R. James 27 M. Gusto 17 M. Rogers 9 João Pedro 10 C. Palmer
  1. B. Leno
  2. A. Robinson
  3. Jorge Cuenca
  4. C. Bassey
  5. T. Castagne
  6. S. Berge
  7. J. King
  8. César Palacios
  9. A. Iwobi
  10. O. Bobb
  11. Gonzalo García
  1. Robert Sánchez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. J. Acheampong
  5. J. Hato
  6. R. Lavia
  7. R. James
  8. M. Gusto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. João Pedro
  11. C. Palmer

Substitutes S. Charles, B. Lecomte, Rodrigo Muniz, H. Reed, L. De Fougerolles, Kevin, R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe, K. Tete

Substitutes Estêvão, V. Barco, J. Gittens, Pep Chavarría, E. Fernández, Pedro Neto, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 42% FUL · 27% draw · 32% CHE  ·  bookmakers: 26% / 25% / 50%  ·  expected goals 1.43–1.21

Last updated 24 Aug at 19:41

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Chelsea goals Fulham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Fulham 0–0 Chelsea: 8% Fulham 0–1 Chelsea: 8% Fulham 0–2 Chelsea: 5% Fulham 0–3 Chelsea: 2% Fulham 0–4 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 0–5 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 1–0 Chelsea: 10% Fulham 1–1 Chelsea: 13% Fulham 1–2 Chelsea: 7% Fulham 1–3 Chelsea: 3% Fulham 1–4 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 1–5 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 2–0 Chelsea: 7% Fulham 2–1 Chelsea: 9% Fulham 2–2 Chelsea: 5% Fulham 2–3 Chelsea: 2% Fulham 2–4 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 2–5 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 3–0 Chelsea: 3% Fulham 3–1 Chelsea: 4% Fulham 3–2 Chelsea: 3% Fulham 3–3 Chelsea: 1% Fulham 3–4 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 3–5 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 4–0 Chelsea: 1% Fulham 4–1 Chelsea: 1% Fulham 4–2 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 4–3 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 4–4 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 5–0 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 5–1 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 5–2 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 5–3 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 6–0 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 6–1 Chelsea: <1% Fulham 6–2 Chelsea: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Fulham win, above it Chelsea do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →