Which Team Will Win?

Ipswich Town 2–1 Sunderland

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Sunderland win

2–1Full time

Ipswich Town crest
◀ Ipswich Town win Sunderland win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Slight

IPS SUN L-D-L-L-L L-D-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.60 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-L W-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -2.00 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.14 1.51 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 70% 66% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Very weak 1363 Average 1492 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.7 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.44 1.30 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.30 2.04 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven IPS SUN L-D-L-L-L L-D-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.60 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-L W-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -2.00 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.14 1.51 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 70% 66% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Very weak 1363 Average 1492 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.7 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.44 1.30 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.30 2.04 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: GK save rate. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Ipswich Town lead it, 70% to 66%. Historically, the side with the goalkeeper in better form takes these roughly 67% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – Ipswich Town come out ahead on it, and Sunderland are favoured anyway – on the strength of recent form, goal difference and their home-and-away records.

  • The callSunderland to win: 45% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For SunderlandHome and away form W-W-L-D-W v L-L-L-L-L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -2.00 (decisive); Possession 55% v 45% (clear).
  • For Ipswich TownGK save rate 70% v 66% (useful); XI attacking output 2.30 v 2.04 (slight).
  • FormIpswich Town L-D-L-L-L, Sunderland L-D-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Ipswich Town 4-5-1 confirmedSunderland 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Ipswich Town 4-5-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

37 K. Scherpen 3 L. Davis 6 I. Diop 24 J. Greaves 26 D. O'Shea 10 J. Enciso 7 A. Fatawu 23 S. Lukić 38 D. Maeda 32 M. Núñez 19 Emersonn
22 R. Roefs 5 D. Ballard 32 T. Hume 17 Reinildo Mandava 12 T. Meunier 13 L. O'Nien 10 N. Angulo 28 E. Le Fée 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 9 B. Brobbey
  1. Emersonn
  2. L. Davis
  3. I. Diop
  4. J. Enciso
  5. J. Greaves
  6. A. Fatawu
  7. S. Lukić
  8. D. Maeda
  9. M. Núñez
  10. D. O'Shea
  11. K. Scherpen
  1. N. Angulo
  2. D. Ballard
  3. B. Brobbey
  4. T. Hume
  5. E. Le Fée
  6. Reinildo Mandava
  7. T. Meunier
  8. L. O'Nien
  9. R. Roefs
  10. N. Sadiki
  11. G. Xhaka

Substitutes C. Akpom, J. Clarke, D. Furlong, C. Humphreys, C. Kipré, K. McAteer, A. Ouattara, S. Egeli, C. Walton

Substitutes O. Alderete, J. Bi, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, W. Isidor, N. Mukiele, R. Mundle, C. Rigg, C. Talbi

Our call: 28% IPS · 26% draw · 45% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 35% / 29% / 36%  ·  expected goals 1.14–1.51

Last updated 22 Aug at 14:32

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Sunderland goals Ipswich Town goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Ipswich Town 0–0 Sunderland: 7% Ipswich Town 0–1 Sunderland: 10% Ipswich Town 0–2 Sunderland: 8% Ipswich Town 0–3 Sunderland: 4% Ipswich Town 0–4 Sunderland: 2% Ipswich Town 0–5 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 0–6 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 1–0 Sunderland: 8% Ipswich Town 1–1 Sunderland: 13% Ipswich Town 1–2 Sunderland: 9% Ipswich Town 1–3 Sunderland: 5% Ipswich Town 1–4 Sunderland: 2% Ipswich Town 1–5 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 1–6 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 2–0 Sunderland: 5% Ipswich Town 2–1 Sunderland: 7% Ipswich Town 2–2 Sunderland: 5% Ipswich Town 2–3 Sunderland: 3% Ipswich Town 2–4 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 2–5 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 2–6 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 3–0 Sunderland: 2% Ipswich Town 3–1 Sunderland: 3% Ipswich Town 3–2 Sunderland: 2% Ipswich Town 3–3 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 3–4 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 3–5 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 4–0 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 4–1 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 4–2 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 4–3 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 4–4 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 5–0 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 5–1 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 5–2 Sunderland: <1% Ipswich Town 5–3 Sunderland: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Ipswich Town win, above it Sunderland do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →