Which Team Will Win?

Ipswich Town vs. Sunderland

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Sunderland win

◀ Ipswich Town win Sunderland win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Ipswich Town crest
IPS SUN L-D-L-L-L L-D-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.60 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-L-L-L-L W-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) -2.00 0.60 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 1.54 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 58% 66% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.7 4.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game Very weak 1363 Average 1492 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.52 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.84 1.28 Attack Goals and expected goals per game
Sunderland crest

The key stat: GK save rate. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Sunderland lead it, 66% to 58%. Historically, the side with the goalkeeper in better form takes these roughly 66% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callSunderland to win: 47% against 26%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For SunderlandHome and away form W-W-L-D-W v L-L-L-L-L (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.60 v -2.00 (decisive); GK save rate 66% v 58% (clear).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormIpswich Town L-D-L-L-L, Sunderland L-D-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Walton98%
  2. O'Shea98%
  3. Greaves98%
  4. FurlongNEW98%
  5. DiopNEW83%
  6. LukićNEW98%
  7. Enciso94%
  8. McAteerNEW81%
  9. FatawuNEW63%
  10. FlorentinoNEW61%
  11. Al-Hamadi4%
  1. Roefs98%
  2. Mukiele98%
  3. Hume98%
  4. Alderete94%
  5. O'Nien84%
  6. E.Le Fée98%
  7. Xhaka98%
  8. Sadiki98%
  9. Angulo59%
  10. Rigg55%
  11. Brobbey96%

Likely subs Palmer, Button, Johnson, Davis, Ogbene, Clarke, Philogene

Likely subs Reinildo, Ballard, Ellborg, Talbi, Diarra, Mundle, Seelt

Doubts Burns unavailable, Taylor injured, Hirst unavailable, Szmodics unavailable, Matusiwa injured

Doubts Adingra injured, Masuaku unavailable, Hjelde unavailable, Patterson unavailable

Our call: 26% IPS · 26% draw · 47% SUN  ·  expected goals 1.09–1.54

Last updated today at 14:46

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Form at this venue & keeper faced SUN 66% 1,192
Form at this venue SUN 67% 1,192
Keeper faced & shots on target SUN 72% 1,193
Team strength & shots on target SUN 77% 1,193
Defence from this XI & team strength SUN 74% 809

Conviction score: 0.76 towards SUN.

Most likely scorelines

SUN goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 IPS goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.5%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →