Which Team Will Win?

Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City

Friday 28th August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2 · Full time

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Manchester City win

1–4Full time

Crystal Palace crest
◀ Crystal Palace win Man City win ▶ 21% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Strong

CRY MCI D-L-D-L-L W-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.20 1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-D-L D-W-W-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.00 0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.00 2.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1510 Exceptional 1729 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.81 3.43 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.52 1.96 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.6 6.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 62% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved CRY MCI D-L-D-L-L W-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -1.20 1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-D-L D-W-W-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.00 0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.00 2.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1510 Exceptional 1729 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.81 3.43 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.52 1.96 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.6 6.0 Exp: Shots on target Per game 62% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 76% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 61% against 18%, with the draw at 21%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester CityGoal difference 1.20 v -1.20 (decisive); Shots on target 6.0 v 3.6 (decisive); Elo performance 1729 v 1510 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormCrystal Palace D-L-D-L-L, Manchester City W-W-D-L-W.

NB 8 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmedManchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 D. Henderson 17 T. Tomiyasu 26 C. Richards 6 J. Canvot 3 T. Mitchell 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 25 A. Khalaili 10 Yéremy Pino 9 E. Nketiah 22 J. Strand Larsen
1 G. Donnarumma 33 N. O'Reilly 24 J. Gvardiol 3 Rúben Dias 45 A. Khusanov 6 M. Guéhi 5 E. Anderson 42 A. Semenyo 10 R. Cherki 47 P. Foden 9 E. Haaland
  1. D. Henderson
  2. T. Tomiyasu
  3. C. Richards
  4. J. Canvot
  5. T. Mitchell
  6. A. Wharton
  7. D. Kamada
  8. A. Khalaili
  9. Yéremy Pino
  10. E. Nketiah
  11. J. Strand Larsen
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. N. O'Reilly
  3. J. Gvardiol
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. A. Khusanov
  6. M. Guéhi
  7. E. Anderson
  8. A. Semenyo
  9. R. Cherki
  10. P. Foden
  11. E. Haaland

Substitutes W. Benítez, A. Disasi, Z. Gozo, E. Guessand, W. Hughes, J. Lerma, D. McNeil, Óscar Mingueza, D. Muñoz

Substitutes R. Aït-Nouri, A. Bouaddi, K. Braithwaite, C. Echeverri, M. Kovačić, R. Lewis, R. McAidoo, G. Rulli, Vitor Reis

Our call: 18% CRY · 21% draw · 61% MCI  ·  bookmakers: 20% / 24% / 57%  ·  expected goals 1.00–2.04

Last updated 28 Aug at 19:31

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man City goals Crystal Palace goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Crystal Palace 0–0 Man City: 5% Crystal Palace 0–1 Man City: 9% Crystal Palace 0–2 Man City: 10% Crystal Palace 0–3 Man City: 7% Crystal Palace 0–4 Man City: 3% Crystal Palace 0–5 Man City: 1% Crystal Palace 0–6 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 1–0 Man City: 4% Crystal Palace 1–1 Man City: 10% Crystal Palace 1–2 Man City: 10% Crystal Palace 1–3 Man City: 7% Crystal Palace 1–4 Man City: 3% Crystal Palace 1–5 Man City: 1% Crystal Palace 1–6 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 2–0 Man City: 2% Crystal Palace 2–1 Man City: 5% Crystal Palace 2–2 Man City: 5% Crystal Palace 2–3 Man City: 3% Crystal Palace 2–4 Man City: 2% Crystal Palace 2–5 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 2–6 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 3–0 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 3–1 Man City: 2% Crystal Palace 3–2 Man City: 2% Crystal Palace 3–3 Man City: 1% Crystal Palace 3–4 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 3–5 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 3–6 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 4–0 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 4–1 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 4–2 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 4–3 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 4–4 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 4–5 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 5–1 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 5–2 Man City: <1% Crystal Palace 5–3 Man City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Crystal Palace win, above it Man City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →