Which Team Will Win?

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City

Friday 28th August 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Manchester City win

◀ Crystal Palace win Man City win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 22%

Confidence: Strong

More statsLess
Crystal Palace crest
CRY MCI L-D-L-D-L D-W-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -1.40 1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-W-D-D-L D-W-W-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.00 0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 43% 57% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.09 2.02 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Average 1518 Exceptional 1724 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.64 3.15 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.48 1.35 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.70 1.30 Defence Conceded per game 3.6 6.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Manchester City crest

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Average. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here — 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 58% against 20%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • For Manchester CityGoal difference 1.00 v -1.40 (decisive); Shots on target 6.1 v 3.6 (decisive); Elo performance 1724 v 1518 (decisive).
  • For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormCrystal Palace L-D-L-D-L, Manchester City D-W-W-D-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Henderson75%
  2. Canvot98%
  3. Muñoz93%
  4. TomiyasuNEW80%
  5. Hughes92%
  6. Devenny81%
  7. McNeilNEW76%
  8. Kamada75%
  9. Sarr62%
  10. Lerma62%
  11. Strand Larsen76%
  1. Donnarumma98%
  2. O'Reilly98%
  3. Guéhi98%
  4. Khusanov98%
  5. Matheus N.98%
  6. Semenyo94%
  7. AndersonNEW81%
  8. Grealish81%
  9. Foden45%
  10. Savinho44%
  11. Haaland98%

Likely subs Chadi Riad, Mitchell, Richards, Yeremy, Wharton, Nketiah, Guessand

Likely subs Bettinelli, Rúben, Aït-Nouri, Gvardiol, Cherki, Lewis, N.Gonzalez

Doubts Henderson doubtful, Cardines unavailable, Uche unavailable

Doubts Rodrigo unavailable, Doku injured, Phillips unavailable, Reijnders unavailable, Alleyne unavailable

Our call: 20% CRY · 22% draw · 58% MCI  ·  expected goals 1.09–2.02

Last updated today at 14:46

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Team strength, attack from this XI & defence from this XI MCI 75% 1,148
Team strength, attack from this XI & defence faced MCI 75% 1,193
Shots on target & keeper faced MCI 72% 1,193
Shots on target MCI 72% 1,193
Attacking threat & form at this venue MCI 71% 1,192

Conviction score: 1.14 towards MCI.

Most likely scorelines

MCI goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 CRY goals → Most likely: 1–1 (10.1%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →