Which Team Will Win?

Brighton & Hove Albion 4–0 Aston Villa

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Brighton & Hove Albion win

4–0Full time

Brighton & Hove Albion crest
◀ Brighton win Aston Villa win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Aston Villa crest

Knife-edge – Brighton & Hove Albion shade it

BHA AVL W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-W-L L-D-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.65 1.94 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.17 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 71% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.64 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.21 1.46 Defence Conceded per game BHA AVL W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-W-L L-D-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.65 1.94 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.17 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 71% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.64 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.21 1.46 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.65 to 1.94. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 74% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Brighton & Hove Albion 43%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionXI attacking output 2.65 v 1.94 (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-W-L v L-D-L-D-W (useful); XI defensive record 1.17 v 1.40 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGoal difference 0.20 v 0.00 (marginal).
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L, Aston Villa L-L-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Verbruggen 5 L. Dunk 21 O. Boscagli 44 L. Vušković 27 M. Wieffer 26 Y. Ayari 13 P. Groß 29 M. De Cuyper 8 J. Hinshelwood 25 D. Gómez 10 G. Rutter
40 M. Bizot 22 I. Maatsen 3 V. Lindelöf 14 Pau Torres 2 M. Cash 8 B. Kamara 6 R. Barkley 53 G. Hemmings 35 João Gomes 7 J. McGinn 10 E. Buendía
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. L. Dunk
  3. O. Boscagli
  4. L. Vušković
  5. M. Wieffer
  6. Y. Ayari
  7. P. Groß
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. J. Hinshelwood
  10. D. Gómez
  11. G. Rutter
  1. M. Bizot
  2. I. Maatsen
  3. V. Lindelöf
  4. Pau Torres
  5. M. Cash
  6. B. Kamara
  7. R. Barkley
  8. G. Hemmings
  9. João Gomes
  10. J. McGinn
  11. E. Buendía

Substitutes P. David, C. Kostoulas, Costinha, I. Osman, J. Steele, P. Struijk, M. Svoboda, M. Yalcouyé, Z. Yohanna

Substitutes L. Bogarde, B. Burrowes, A. Garnacho, L. Lynch, T. Mings, T. Rowe, M. Ruggeri, Z. Suzuki, Alysson

Our call: 43% BHA · 25% draw · 32% AVL  ·  bookmakers: 43% / 27% / 31%  ·  expected goals 1.58–1.32

Last updated 23 Aug at 13:31

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Aston Villa goals Brighton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brighton 0–0 Aston Villa: 6% Brighton 0–1 Aston Villa: 7% Brighton 0–2 Aston Villa: 5% Brighton 0–3 Aston Villa: 2% Brighton 0–4 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 0–5 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 1–0 Aston Villa: 8% Brighton 1–1 Aston Villa: 12% Brighton 1–2 Aston Villa: 8% Brighton 1–3 Aston Villa: 3% Brighton 1–4 Aston Villa: 1% Brighton 1–5 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 1–6 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 2–0 Aston Villa: 7% Brighton 2–1 Aston Villa: 9% Brighton 2–2 Aston Villa: 6% Brighton 2–3 Aston Villa: 3% Brighton 2–4 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 2–5 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 2–6 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 3–0 Aston Villa: 4% Brighton 3–1 Aston Villa: 5% Brighton 3–2 Aston Villa: 3% Brighton 3–3 Aston Villa: 1% Brighton 3–4 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 3–5 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 4–0 Aston Villa: 1% Brighton 4–1 Aston Villa: 2% Brighton 4–2 Aston Villa: 1% Brighton 4–3 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 4–4 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 5–0 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 5–1 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 5–2 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 5–3 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 5–4 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 6–0 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 6–1 Aston Villa: <1% Brighton 6–2 Aston Villa: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brighton win, above it Aston Villa do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →