Which Team Will Win?

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa

Sunday 23rd August 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Too close to call

◀ Brighton win Aston Villa win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 25%

Draw 25% · leans BHA by 10 points

More statsLess
Brighton & Hove Albion crest
BHA AVL W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.00 0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) L-W-W-W-L L-D-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.59 1.37 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.78 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 63% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.18 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.64 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.21 1.46 Defence Conceded per game
Aston Villa crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.78 to 2.20. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callToo close to call — Brighton & Hove Albion 42%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 33%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGK save rate 71% v 63% (clear); Home and away form L-W-W-W-L v L-D-L-D-W (useful); XI attacking output 2.78 v 2.20 (useful).
  • For Aston VillaGoal difference 0.20 v 0.00 (marginal).
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion W-L-W-L-L, Aston Villa L-L-D-W-W.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Verbruggen98%
  2. F.Kadıoğlu98%
  3. Boscagli98%
  4. StruijkNEW98%
  5. Wieffer92%
  6. Groß98%
  7. Hinshelwood98%
  8. Gomez75%
  9. Ayari41%
  10. O'Riley22%
  11. Georginio24%
  1. Martinez98%
  2. Konsa98%
  3. Mings98%
  4. Lindelöf95%
  5. Cash82%
  6. Kamara98%
  7. Bogarde78%
  8. McGinn78%
  9. Barkley63%
  10. Buendía60%
  11. Watkins81%

Likely subs Steele, Dunk, De Cuyper, Coppola, Igor, Kostoulas, Oriola

Likely subs M.Bizot, Pau, Maatsen, Bailey, A.García, Abraham, Garnacho

Doubts Minteh injured, Baleba injured, Mitoma injured, Buonanotte unavailable, Howell unavailable, Ferguson injured, Tzimas injured, Watson unavailable

Doubts Gomes injured, Onana injured, Digne unavailable, Abraham doubtful, Nedeljkovic unavailable, Manzambi injured, Madjo injured, Iling Jr unavailable

Our call: 42% BHA · 25% draw · 33% AVL  ·  expected goals 1.59–1.37

Last updated today at 09:41

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Attack from this XI & keeper faced BHA 73% 1,200
Defence from this XI & keeper faced BHA 69% 1,148
Attack from this XI & defence from this XI BHA 74% 1,148
Attacking threat & defence faced BHA 74% 1,193
Attacking threat, shots on target & defence faced BHA 74% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.17 towards BHA.

Most likely scorelines

AVL goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 BHA goals → Most likely: 1–1 (11.6%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →