Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth vs. Everton

Saturday 29th August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 2

whichteamwillwin.com

Bournemouth win

◀ Bournemouth win Everton win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Bournemouth crest
BOU EVE D-W-W-D-D L-D-D-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) 0.80 -0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) D-D-D-W-D L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.57 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 1.45 1.44 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Strong 1594 Average 1522 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.69 1.25 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 73% 62% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.9 4.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game
Everton crest

The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Everton come out on top, 1.44 against 1.45. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 74% of the time. That cuts against our verdict. Bournemouth are tipped because they lead on recent form, goal difference and their home-and-away records. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callBournemouth to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For BournemouthGK save rate 73% v 62% (decisive); Goal difference 0.80 v -0.80 (clear); Home and away form D-D-D-W-D v L-D-L-D-L (clear).
  • For EvertonShots on target 4.8 v 3.9 (useful); XI defensive record 1.44 v 1.45 (marginal).
  • FormBournemouth D-W-W-D-D, Everton L-D-D-L-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Petrović98%
  2. Hill98%
  3. Truffert98%
  4. Smith61%
  5. Diakité38%
  6. Tavernier98%
  7. Scott98%
  8. Rayan79%
  9. Adams47%
  10. Kluivert44%
  11. Evanilson95%
  1. Pickford98%
  2. Tarkowski98%
  3. Keane98%
  4. Mykolenko98%
  5. O'Brien96%
  6. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. Ndiaye98%
  8. JohnsonNEW79%
  9. Röhl77%
  10. Dibling39%
  11. Beto75%

Likely subs Forster, Cook, Tóth.A, Brooks, Gannon-Doak, Soler, Rodríguez

Likely subs Travers, Branthwaite, Barry, Patterson, Garner, Armstrong, George

Doubts Kroupi.Jr injured, Christie suspended, Adams doubtful, Milosavljević injured, J.Araujo injured, Brooks doubtful, Adli injured, Soler doubtful

Doubts Garner doubtful, Iroegbunam injured, Nørgaard injured

Our call: 45% BOU · 26% draw · 29% EVE  ·  expected goals 1.57–1.21

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Defence from this XI & team strength BOU 74% 809
Attacking threat & team strength BOU 73% 841
Attacking threat & keeper faced BOU 72% 1,193
Shots on target & keeper faced EVE 70% 1,193
Shots on target EVE 72% 1,193

Conviction score: 0.36 towards BOU.

Most likely scorelines

EVE goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 BOU goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.1%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →