Which Team Will Win?

Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1 · Full time

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Everton win

2–0Full time

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Crystal Palace win ▶ 24% draw chance bookmakers
Crystal Palace crest

Confidence: Fair

EVE CRY L-D-D-L-L L-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.80 -1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-W-L-D-L W-L-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.75 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 4.8 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.47 1.70 Defence Conceded per game 1.45 1.50 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.25 1.44 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 62% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved EVE CRY L-D-D-L-L L-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.80 -1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-W-L-D-L W-L-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.75 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 4.8 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.47 1.70 Defence Conceded per game 1.45 1.50 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.25 1.44 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 62% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Shots on target. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Everton lead it, 4.8 to 3.6. When this gap appears, whoever worked the keeper harder tends to win, in around 72% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callEverton to win: 50% against 26%, with the draw at 24%. Confidence fair.
  • For EvertonGoal difference at this venue 0.40 v -1.20 (clear); Shots on target 4.8 v 3.6 (useful); Home and away form W-W-L-D-L v W-L-L-L-D (useful).
  • For Crystal PalacePossession 53% v 47% (useful); GK save rate 65% v 62% (slight); Attack 1.44 v 1.25 (slight).
  • FormEverton L-D-D-L-L, Crystal Palace L-D-L-D-L.

NB The form above is last season’s – no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form.

Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 34 M. Röhl 30 H. Hackney 45 H. Armstrong 19 T. George 8 Dewsbury-Hall 10 I. Ndiaye 11 T. Barry
1 D. Henderson 4 C. Riad 26 C. Richards 6 J. Canvot 3 T. Mitchell 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 2 D. Muñoz 11 D. McNeil 9 E. Nketiah 14 J. Mateta
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. M. Röhl
  6. H. Hackney
  7. H. Armstrong
  8. T. George
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. I. Ndiaye
  11. T. Barry
  1. D. Henderson
  2. C. Riad
  3. C. Richards
  4. J. Canvot
  5. T. Mitchell
  6. A. Wharton
  7. D. Kamada
  8. D. Muñoz
  9. D. McNeil
  10. E. Nketiah
  11. J. Mateta

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, J. Garner, Beto, B. Johnson, M. Keane, J. O'Brien, N. Patterson, M. Travers

Substitutes W. Benítez, E. Guessand, W. Hughes, A. Khalaili, Óscar Mingueza, Yéremy Pino, B. Sosa, J. Strand Larsen, T. Tomiyasu

Our call: 50% EVE · 24% draw · 26% CRY  ·  bookmakers: 43% / 28% / 29%  ·  expected goals 1.75–1.21

Last updated 22 Aug at 14:32

What separates them

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Crystal Palace goals Everton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Everton 0–0 Crystal Palace: 6% Everton 0–1 Crystal Palace: 6% Everton 0–2 Crystal Palace: 4% Everton 0–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Everton 0–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 0–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 1–0 Crystal Palace: 9% Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace: 11% Everton 1–2 Crystal Palace: 7% Everton 1–3 Crystal Palace: 3% Everton 1–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 1–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 2–0 Crystal Palace: 8% Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace: 10% Everton 2–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Everton 2–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Everton 2–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 2–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 3–0 Crystal Palace: 5% Everton 3–1 Crystal Palace: 6% Everton 3–2 Crystal Palace: 3% Everton 3–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Everton 3–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 3–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 4–0 Crystal Palace: 2% Everton 4–1 Crystal Palace: 2% Everton 4–2 Crystal Palace: 1% Everton 4–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 4–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 5–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 5–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 5–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 5–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 5–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 6–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 6–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 6–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Everton 6–3 Crystal Palace: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Everton win, above it Crystal Palace do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →