Which Team Will Win?

Everton vs. Crystal Palace

Saturday 22nd August 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 1

whichteamwillwin.com

Everton win

◀ Everton win Crystal Palace win ▶ ◄ draw zone ► 26%

Confidence: Slight

More statsLess
Everton crest
EVE CRY L-D-D-L-L L-D-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (last season) -0.80 -1.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (last season) W-W-L-D-L W-L-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (last season) 0.40 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.58 1.18 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT — AGAINST THE CALL 2.07 2.64 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 62% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.8 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.47 1.70 Defence Conceded per game 1.44 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven
Crystal Palace crest

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Crystal Palace lead it, 2.64 to 2.07. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. Our call goes the other way — Everton are favoured on the strength of goal difference, their home-and-away records and goal difference in this setting. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callEverton to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • For EvertonGoal difference at this venue 0.40 v -1.20 (clear); Shots on target 4.8 v 3.6 (useful); Home and away form W-W-L-D-L v W-L-L-L-D (useful).
  • For Crystal PalaceXI attacking output 2.64 v 2.07 (useful); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); GK save rate 65% v 62% (slight).
  • FormEverton L-D-D-L-L, Crystal Palace L-D-L-D-L.

NB The form above is last season’s — no Premier League matches have been played this campaign, and squads have changed over the summer. It is the best evidence we have, not current form. The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands about an hour before kick-off.

Everton 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

  1. Pickford98%
  2. Tarkowski98%
  3. Keane98%
  4. Mykolenko98%
  5. O'Brien96%
  6. Dewsbury-Hall98%
  7. Ndiaye98%
  8. JohnsonNEW79%
  9. Röhl77%
  10. Dibling39%
  11. Beto75%
  1. Henderson75%
  2. Canvot98%
  3. Muñoz93%
  4. TomiyasuNEW80%
  5. Hughes92%
  6. Devenny81%
  7. McNeilNEW76%
  8. Kamada75%
  9. Sarr62%
  10. Lerma62%
  11. Strand Larsen76%

Likely subs Travers, Branthwaite, Barry, Patterson, Garner, Armstrong, George

Likely subs Chadi Riad, Mitchell, Richards, Yeremy, Wharton, Nketiah, Guessand

Doubts Garner doubtful, Iroegbunam injured, Nørgaard injured

Doubts Henderson doubtful, Cardines unavailable, Uche unavailable

Our call: 46% EVE · 26% draw · 28% CRY  ·  expected goals 1.58–1.18

Last updated 19 Aug at 12:28

What separates them

Every stat weighed against its opposite number, singly and in combination. Of the comparisons that have reliably told winners from losers in the past — scored only on matches played before this one — these are the ones these two sides are furthest apart on.

ComparisonFavoursSide ahead wonIn past matchesMatches
Attack from this XI & keeper faced CRY 73% 1,200
Attack from this XI CRY 73% 1,200
Shots on target EVE 72% 1,193
Shots on target & defence faced EVE 73% 1,193
Defence faced & defence from this XI EVE 66% 1,032

Conviction score: 0.04 towards CRY.

Most likely scorelines

CRY goals → 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 EVE goals → Most likely: 1–1 (12.2%)

The model turns each side's features into an expected-goals figure, then works out the probability of every scoreline. Adding up the cells above, on and below the diagonal gives the win, draw and loss percentages. Full method →