Which Team Will Win?

Coventry City vs. Crystal Palace

Saturday 21st November 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 11

whichteamwillwin.com

Coventry City win

Coventry City crest
◀ Coventry win Crystal Palace win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers · odds TBC
Crystal Palace crest

Knife-edge – Coventry City shade it

MoreLess
COV CRY L-L-L-W-W W-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.42 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 2.68 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Weak 1433 Average 1505 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.54 1.84 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 61% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.7 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.10 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 117% 100% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven COV CRY L-L-L-W-W W-L-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -1.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.42 1.32 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 2.68 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Weak 1433 Average 1505 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.54 1.84 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 61% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.7 3.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.10 1.20 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 117% 100% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven

The key stat: Defence. No other measure separates them as clearly. Coventry City come out on top, 1.76 against 2.68. whoever was harder to score against normally comes out on top here – 73% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Coventry City 39%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 34%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Coventry City comes from home advantage, the defence in front of them and the strength of this eleven against their usual one.
  • For Coventry CityDefence 1.76 v 2.68 (decisive); XI strength vs usual 117% v 100% (clear); XI defensive record 1.54 v 1.84 (clear).
  • For Crystal PalaceGK save rate 67% v 61% (clear); Elo performance 1505 v 1433 (slight); Home and away form D-L-W-D-L v L-L-W (slight).
  • FormCoventry City L-L-L-W-W, Crystal Palace W-L-D-W-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Coventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtfulCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 expected · 10 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
44 Benitez 25 A. Khalaili 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 6 J. Canvot 21 H. Ahanor 20 A. Wharton 18 D. Kamada 23 Q. Timber 10 Yeremy 22 J. Strand Larsen
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%
  1. Benitez80%
  2. A. Khalaili98%
  3. C. Richards98%
  4. T. Mitchell97%
  5. J. Canvot80%
  6. H. Ahanor38%
  7. A. Wharton98%
  8. D. Kamada98%
  9. Q. Timber94%
  10. Yeremy91%
  11. J. Strand Larsen79%

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Likely subs A. Disasi, D. Osorio, Lerma, J. Mateta, I. Sarr, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Doubts R. Cardines unavailable, T. Tomiyasu injured, D. Henderson doubtful, B. Chilwell injured, J. Devenny unavailable, R. Esse unavailable, C. Uche unavailable, M.França unavailable

Our call: 39% COV · 26% draw · 34% CRY  ·  expected goals 1.42–1.32

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ CoventryCrystal Palace ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.30
Home advantage 0.28
Defence 0.10
Settled eleven 0.03
Shots on target 0.02
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Everything else 0.06
Coventry ahead by 0.11

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Coventry come out 0.11 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Crystal Palace goals Coventry goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Coventry 0–0 Crystal Palace: 7% Coventry 0–1 Crystal Palace: 8% Coventry 0–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Coventry 0–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Coventry 0–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 0–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 1–0 Crystal Palace: 9% Coventry 1–1 Crystal Palace: 12% Coventry 1–2 Crystal Palace: 8% Coventry 1–3 Crystal Palace: 3% Coventry 1–4 Crystal Palace: 1% Coventry 1–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 1–6 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 2–0 Crystal Palace: 7% Coventry 2–1 Crystal Palace: 9% Coventry 2–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Coventry 2–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Coventry 2–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 2–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 3–0 Crystal Palace: 3% Coventry 3–1 Crystal Palace: 4% Coventry 3–2 Crystal Palace: 3% Coventry 3–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Coventry 3–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 3–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 4–0 Crystal Palace: 1% Coventry 4–1 Crystal Palace: 1% Coventry 4–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 4–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 4–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 5–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 5–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 5–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 5–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 6–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 6–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Coventry 6–2 Crystal Palace: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Coventry win, above it Crystal Palace do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →