Which Team Will Win?

Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest

Saturday 31st October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 9

whichteamwillwin.com

Brentford win

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Forest win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Nottingham Forest crest

Confidence: Fair

MoreLess
BRE NFO D-D-W-D-L D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-D-W-L W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.16 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.78 1.42 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 74% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.54 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1559 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.8 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 112% 100% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven BRE NFO D-D-W-D-L D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-W-D-W-L W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.67 1.16 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.78 1.42 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 74% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.54 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1559 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.8 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 112% 100% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven

The key stat: Defence. No other measure separates them as clearly. It goes to Nottingham Forest: 1.42 to 1.78. whoever was harder to score against normally comes out on top here – 68% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it leans Nottingham Forest's way, and the verdict still goes to Brentford, who lead on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the strength of this eleven against their usual one.

  • The callBrentford to win: 49% against 26%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the strength of this eleven against their usual one – the strongest pull the other way is a cup tie in the other side's legs.
  • For BrentfordGK save rate 74% v 68% (clear); XI strength vs usual 112% v 100% (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.60 (useful).
  • For Nottingham ForestDefence 1.42 v 1.78 (useful); XI defensive record 1.34 v 1.54 (useful); Shots on target 4.2 v 3.8 (slight).
  • FormBrentford D-D-W-D-L, Nottingham Forest D-W-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 expected · 5 unavailable · 1 doubtfulNottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 44 J. Schuster 23 Lewis-Potter 7 K. Schade 19 J. Anthony 18 M.Sangaré 24 M. Damsgaard 11 O.Dango 9 Thiago
26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 3 N.Williams 27 Muñoz 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
  1. C. Kelleher98%
  2. K. Ajer98%
  3. M. Kayode76%
  4. J. Schuster47%
  5. K. Lewis-Potter93%
  6. K. Schade81%
  7. J. Anthony79%
  8. M.Sangaré45%
  9. M. Damsgaard43%
  10. O.Dango38%
  11. Thiago98%
  1. M. Sels98%
  2. Murillo98%
  3. N.Williams98%
  4. Muñoz82%
  5. O. Diomande78%
  6. Jair Cunha59%
  7. J. McAtee98%
  8. X. Schlager98%
  9. D. Ndoye90%
  10. M. Gibbs-White60%
  11. L. Delap97%

Likely subs A. Hickey, N. Collins, C. Wilson, F. Carvalho, E. Diouf, H. Valdimarsson, S. Van den Berg

Likely subs O. Aina, S. Benda, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, N. Milenković, A. Kalimuendo, I.Sangaré

Doubts V. Janelt suspended, Y. Yarmoliuk suspended, J. Schuster doubtful, A. Milambo injured, K. Furo injured, J. Dasilva injured

Doubts M. Gibbs-White doubtful, T. Bindon unavailable, Igor Jesus injured, D. Bakwa unavailable, O. Hutchinson unavailable, Morato unavailable, N. Savona injured, Z. Abbott unavailable

Our call: 49% BRE · 25% draw · 26% NFO  ·  bookmakers: 47% / 26% / 27%  ·  expected goals 1.67–1.16

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ BrentfordForest ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.28
Long-run strength 0.25
Cup match in the week 0.18
Shots on target 0.05
Settled eleven 0.04
Defence 0.04
Everything else 0.29
Brentford ahead by 0.52

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Brentford come out 0.52 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Forest goals Brentford goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brentford 0–0 Forest: 6% Brentford 0–1 Forest: 6% Brentford 0–2 Forest: 4% Brentford 0–3 Forest: 2% Brentford 0–4 Forest: <1% Brentford 0–5 Forest: <1% Brentford 1–0 Forest: 10% Brentford 1–1 Forest: 12% Brentford 1–2 Forest: 7% Brentford 1–3 Forest: 3% Brentford 1–4 Forest: <1% Brentford 1–5 Forest: <1% Brentford 2–0 Forest: 8% Brentford 2–1 Forest: 10% Brentford 2–2 Forest: 6% Brentford 2–3 Forest: 2% Brentford 2–4 Forest: <1% Brentford 2–5 Forest: <1% Brentford 3–0 Forest: 5% Brentford 3–1 Forest: 5% Brentford 3–2 Forest: 3% Brentford 3–3 Forest: 1% Brentford 3–4 Forest: <1% Brentford 3–5 Forest: <1% Brentford 4–0 Forest: 2% Brentford 4–1 Forest: 2% Brentford 4–2 Forest: 1% Brentford 4–3 Forest: <1% Brentford 4–4 Forest: <1% Brentford 5–0 Forest: <1% Brentford 5–1 Forest: <1% Brentford 5–2 Forest: <1% Brentford 5–3 Forest: <1% Brentford 6–0 Forest: <1% Brentford 6–1 Forest: <1% Brentford 6–2 Forest: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brentford win, above it Forest do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →