Which Team Will Win?

Coventry City vs. Fulham

Saturday 24th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Fulham win

Coventry City crest
◀ Coventry win Fulham win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Fulham crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
COV FUL L-L-L-W-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.15 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.54 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Weak 1433 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.76 1.20 Defence Conceded per game 61% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.20 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.10 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.7 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game COV FUL L-L-L-W-W L-D-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W L-D-L-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.15 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.54 1.25 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Weak 1433 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.76 1.20 Defence Conceded per game 61% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.20 2.68 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.10 1.50 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.7 4.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Fulham: 1.25 to 1.54. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 74% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callFulham to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For FulhamGK save rate 69% v 61% (clear); Defence 1.20 v 1.76 (clear); XI defensive record 1.25 v 1.54 (clear).
  • For Coventry CityHome and away form L-L-W v L-D-L-D-L (marginal).
  • FormCoventry City L-L-L-W-W, Fulham L-D-D-L-W.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Coventry City 3-4-2-1 expected · 11 unavailable · 1 doubtfulFulham 4-2-3-1 expected · 3 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

19 C. Rushworth 4 B. Thomas 3 J. Dasilva 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 21 J. Bidwell 6 M. Grimes 5 J. Rudoni 10 E. Mason-Clark 8 C. Yirenkyi 14 T. Awoniyi
1 B. Leno 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 33 A. Robinson 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 16 S. Berge 7 Gonzalo
  1. C. Rushworth98%
  2. B. Thomas98%
  3. J. Dasilva98%
  4. E. Pinnock81%
  5. M. van Ewijk80%
  6. J. BidwellNEW40%
  7. M. Grimes98%
  8. J. Rudoni92%
  9. E. Mason-Clark86%
  10. C. Yirenkyi61%
  11. T. Awoniyi55%
  1. B. Leno98%
  2. C. Bassey98%
  3. D. Affengruber80%
  4. A. Robinson79%
  5. T. Castagne78%
  6. S. Charles97%
  7. A. Iwobi96%
  8. J. King95%
  9. O. Bobb92%
  10. S. Berge81%
  11. Gonzalo97%

Likely subs Y. Gboho, F. Onyeka, B. Thomas-Asante, B. Wilson, V. Torp, G. Hamer, E. Simms

Likely subs B. Lecomte, Muniz, C. Palacios, Kevin, J. Andersen, Ángel, T. Cairney

Doubts A. Amenda injured, H. Wright injured, L. Kitching unavailable, M. Brau unavailable, J. Markelo unavailable, O. Dovin unavailable, J. Eccles injured, K. Kesler-Hayden doubtful

Doubts R. Sessegnon suspended, A. McNally unavailable, L. De Fougerolles unavailable, H. Larsson doubtful

Our call: 29% COV · 26% draw · 45% FUL  ·  bookmakers: 33% / 27% / 41%  ·  expected goals 1.15–1.50

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 16:17 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ CoventryFulham ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.27
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.08
Defence 0.06
XI attacking output 0.04
Settled eleven 0.03
Everything else 0.13
Fulham ahead by 0.35

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Fulham come out 0.35 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Fulham goals Coventry goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Coventry 0–0 Fulham: 7% Coventry 0–1 Fulham: 10% Coventry 0–2 Fulham: 8% Coventry 0–3 Fulham: 4% Coventry 0–4 Fulham: 1% Coventry 0–5 Fulham: <1% Coventry 0–6 Fulham: <1% Coventry 1–0 Fulham: 8% Coventry 1–1 Fulham: 13% Coventry 1–2 Fulham: 9% Coventry 1–3 Fulham: 5% Coventry 1–4 Fulham: 2% Coventry 1–5 Fulham: <1% Coventry 1–6 Fulham: <1% Coventry 2–0 Fulham: 5% Coventry 2–1 Fulham: 7% Coventry 2–2 Fulham: 5% Coventry 2–3 Fulham: 3% Coventry 2–4 Fulham: <1% Coventry 2–5 Fulham: <1% Coventry 2–6 Fulham: <1% Coventry 3–0 Fulham: 2% Coventry 3–1 Fulham: 3% Coventry 3–2 Fulham: 2% Coventry 3–3 Fulham: 1% Coventry 3–4 Fulham: <1% Coventry 3–5 Fulham: <1% Coventry 4–0 Fulham: <1% Coventry 4–1 Fulham: <1% Coventry 4–2 Fulham: <1% Coventry 4–3 Fulham: <1% Coventry 4–4 Fulham: <1% Coventry 5–0 Fulham: <1% Coventry 5–1 Fulham: <1% Coventry 5–2 Fulham: <1% Coventry 5–3 Fulham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Coventry win, above it Fulham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →