Which Team Will Win?

Ipswich Town vs. Nottingham Forest

Friday 23rd October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 8

whichteamwillwin.com

Nottingham Forest win

Ipswich Town crest
◀ Ipswich Town win Forest win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Nottingham Forest crest

Confidence: Slight

MoreLess
IPS NFO L-W-L-W-L D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W-L-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.19 1.49 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 58% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1388 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.88 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 2.23 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven IPS NFO L-W-L-W-L D-W-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W-L-W W-L-D-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 49% 51% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.19 1.49 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.76 1.34 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 58% 68% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1388 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.88 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 2.23 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Nottingham Forest lead it, 1.34 to 1.76. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callNottingham Forest to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Nottingham ForestGK save rate 68% v 58% (decisive); XI defensive record 1.34 v 1.76 (decisive); Defence 1.42 v 1.88 (useful).
  • For Ipswich TownGoal difference -0.40 v -0.60 (marginal).
  • FormIpswich Town L-W-L-W-L, Nottingham Forest D-W-L-L-L.

NB The elevens are our prediction. Confirmed team news lands in the hour before kick-off.

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 expected · 8 unavailableNottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 expected · 7 unavailable · 1 doubtful Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Expected starting XI

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Expected starting XI

28 C. Walton 26 D. O'Shea 3 L. Davis 6 I. Diop 42 A. Ouattara 10 J. Enciso 25 E. Palacios 23 S. Lukić 38 D. Maeda 7 A. Fatawu 19 Emersonn
26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 3 N.Williams 27 Muñoz 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 24 J. McAtee 21 X. Schlager 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
  1. C. Walton60%
  2. D. O'Shea98%
  3. L. Davis98%
  4. I. Diop98%
  5. A. Ouattara61%
  6. J. Enciso96%
  7. E. Palacios80%
  8. S. Lukić77%
  9. D. Maeda59%
  10. A. Fatawu56%
  11. Emersonn91%
  1. M. Sels98%
  2. Murillo98%
  3. N.Williams98%
  4. Muñoz82%
  5. O. Diomande78%
  6. Jair Cunha59%
  7. J. McAtee98%
  8. X. Schlager98%
  9. D. Ndoye90%
  10. M. Gibbs-White60%
  11. L. Delap97%

Likely subs J. Greaves, K. Scherpen, J. Clarke, Florentino, Z. Flemming, J. Philogene, C. Akpom

Likely subs O. Aina, S. Benda, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, N. Milenković, A. Kalimuendo, I.Sangaré

Doubts K. Van Oevelen unavailable, C. Humphreys unavailable, W. Burns unavailable, G. Hirst unavailable, S. Szmodics unavailable, A. Al-Hamadi unavailable, C. Ogbene unavailable, B. Johnson unavailable

Doubts M. Gibbs-White doubtful, T. Bindon unavailable, Igor Jesus injured, D. Bakwa unavailable, O. Hutchinson unavailable, Morato unavailable, N. Savona injured, Z. Abbott unavailable

Our call: 30% IPS · 26% draw · 44% NFO  ·  bookmakers: 31% / 27% / 42%  ·  expected goals 1.19–1.49

Unchanged since 18 Oct at 18:59 · checked today at 12:57

What separates them

Reason◂ Ipswich TownForest ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.46
Home advantage 0.27
Defence 0.05
XI attacking output 0.03
XI defensive record 0.03
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Everything else 0.03
Forest ahead by 0.30

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Forest come out 0.30 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Forest goals Ipswich Town goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Ipswich Town 0–0 Forest: 7% Ipswich Town 0–1 Forest: 10% Ipswich Town 0–2 Forest: 8% Ipswich Town 0–3 Forest: 4% Ipswich Town 0–4 Forest: 1% Ipswich Town 0–5 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 0–6 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 1–0 Forest: 8% Ipswich Town 1–1 Forest: 13% Ipswich Town 1–2 Forest: 9% Ipswich Town 1–3 Forest: 5% Ipswich Town 1–4 Forest: 2% Ipswich Town 1–5 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 1–6 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 2–0 Forest: 5% Ipswich Town 2–1 Forest: 7% Ipswich Town 2–2 Forest: 5% Ipswich Town 2–3 Forest: 3% Ipswich Town 2–4 Forest: 1% Ipswich Town 2–5 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 2–6 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 3–0 Forest: 2% Ipswich Town 3–1 Forest: 3% Ipswich Town 3–2 Forest: 2% Ipswich Town 3–3 Forest: 1% Ipswich Town 3–4 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 3–5 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 4–0 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 4–1 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 4–2 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 4–3 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 4–4 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 5–0 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 5–1 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 5–2 Forest: <1% Ipswich Town 5–3 Forest: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Ipswich Town win, above it Forest do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →