Which Team Will Win?

Fulham 1–0 Hull City

Saturday 17th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 7 · Full time

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Fulham win

1–0Full time

Fulham crest
◀ Fulham win Hull City win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Hull City crest

Confidence: Fair

FUL HUL L-L-D-D-L W-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.69 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.53 2.04 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1494 Weak 1429 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.54 0.96 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 69% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.52 1.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.1 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game FUL HUL L-L-D-D-L W-D-D-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-W-L-L-D D-L-W-D-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.69 1.04 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.53 2.04 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1494 Weak 1429 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.43 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.54 0.96 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 69% 74% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.52 1.82 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 4.1 3.5 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Fulham come out on top, 1.53 against 2.04. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 73% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callFulham to win: 52% against 23%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target.
  • For FulhamAttack 1.54 v 0.96 (clear); Defence 1.53 v 2.04 (clear); XI attacking output 2.52 v 1.82 (clear).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 74% v 69% (useful); Goal difference 0.00 v -0.60 (slight); Home and away form D-L-W-D-L v L-W-L-L-D (marginal).
  • FormFulham L-L-D-D-L, Hull City W-D-D-L-D.
Fulham 4-2-3-1 confirmedHull City 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Hull City 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Leno 33 A. Robinson 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 16 S. Berge 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 7 Gonzalo García
19 K. Tzolakis 22 Herrington 15 J. Egan 6 S. Ajayi 18 Norton-Cuffy 2 L. Coyle 7 S. Thomas 27 R. Slater 25 M. Crooks 10 M. Belloumi 9 O. McBurnie
  1. B. Leno
  2. A. Robinson
  3. C. Bassey
  4. D. Affengruber
  5. T. Castagne
  6. S. Charles
  7. S. Berge
  8. A. Iwobi
  9. J. King
  10. O. Bobb
  11. Gonzalo García
  1. K. Tzolakis
  2. L. Herrington
  3. J. Egan
  4. S. Ajayi
  5. B. Norton-Cuffy
  6. L. Coyle
  7. S. Thomas
  8. R. Slater
  9. M. Crooks
  10. M. Belloumi
  11. O. McBurnie

Substitutes J. Andersen, T. Cairney, B. Lecomte, Manuel Ángel, Rodrigo Muniz, César Palacios, Kevin, R. Sessegnon, K. Tete

Substitutes P. McNair, J. Gelhardt, R. Giles, J. Hjertø-Dahl, T. Iroegbunam, H. Morita, D. Phillips, E. Stroud, R. Vaz

Our call: 52% FUL · 25% draw · 23% HUL  ·  bookmakers: 55% / 24% / 21%  ·  expected goals 1.69–1.04

Last updated 17 Oct at 14:09

What separates them

Reason◂ FulhamHull City ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.27
Long-run strength 0.27
Shots on target 0.07
XI attacking output 0.06
Defence 0.05
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.07
Fulham ahead by 0.65

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Fulham come out 0.65 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Hull City goals Fulham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Fulham 0–0 Hull City: 7% Fulham 0–1 Hull City: 6% Fulham 0–2 Hull City: 4% Fulham 0–3 Hull City: 1% Fulham 0–4 Hull City: <1% Fulham 0–5 Hull City: <1% Fulham 1–0 Hull City: 11% Fulham 1–1 Hull City: 12% Fulham 1–2 Hull City: 6% Fulham 1–3 Hull City: 2% Fulham 1–4 Hull City: <1% Fulham 1–5 Hull City: <1% Fulham 2–0 Hull City: 9% Fulham 2–1 Hull City: 10% Fulham 2–2 Hull City: 5% Fulham 2–3 Hull City: 2% Fulham 2–4 Hull City: <1% Fulham 2–5 Hull City: <1% Fulham 3–0 Hull City: 5% Fulham 3–1 Hull City: 5% Fulham 3–2 Hull City: 3% Fulham 3–3 Hull City: <1% Fulham 3–4 Hull City: <1% Fulham 3–5 Hull City: <1% Fulham 4–0 Hull City: 2% Fulham 4–1 Hull City: 2% Fulham 4–2 Hull City: 1% Fulham 4–3 Hull City: <1% Fulham 4–4 Hull City: <1% Fulham 5–0 Hull City: <1% Fulham 5–1 Hull City: <1% Fulham 5–2 Hull City: <1% Fulham 5–3 Hull City: <1% Fulham 6–0 Hull City: <1% Fulham 6–1 Hull City: <1% Fulham 6–2 Hull City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Fulham win, above it Hull City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →