Which Team Will Win?

Coventry City 4–1 Newcastle United

Monday 12th October 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Newcastle United win

4–1Full time

Coventry City crest
◀ Coventry win Newcastle win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Newcastle United crest

Confidence: Slight

COV NEW L-L-L-L-W D-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.80 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L L-D-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -3.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.17 1.52 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 59% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.2 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game Weak 1421 Above average 1551 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.53 1.52 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game COV NEW L-L-L-L-W D-W-D-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.80 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L L-D-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -3.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.17 1.52 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 59% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.2 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game Weak 1421 Above average 1551 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.53 1.52 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.34 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.01 1.19 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: GK save rate. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Newcastle United lead it, 69% to 59%. When this gap appears, whoever had the more reliable last line tends to win, in around 72% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callNewcastle United to win: 45% against 29%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Newcastle UnitedGoal difference at this venue -0.80 v -3.00 (decisive); GK save rate 69% v 59% (decisive); Goal difference 0.00 v -1.80 (decisive).
  • For Coventry CityXI attacking output 2.34 v 2.27 (marginal).
  • FormCoventry City L-L-L-L-W, Newcastle United D-W-D-L-W.
Coventry City 4-2-3-1 confirmedNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Coventry City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

19 C. Rushworth 3 J. Dasilva 4 B. Thomas 2 E. Pinnock 27 M. van Ewijk 6 M. Grimes 8 C. Yirenkyi 10 E. Mason-Clark 5 J. Rudoni 23 Thomas-Asante 49 S. Cherif
21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 67 L. Miley 28 J. Willock 6 Nico González 11 H. Barnes 9 Y. Wissa 23 J. Murphy 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
  1. C. Rushworth
  2. J. Dasilva
  3. B. Thomas
  4. E. Pinnock
  5. M. van Ewijk
  6. M. Grimes
  7. C. Yirenkyi
  8. E. Mason-Clark
  9. J. Rudoni
  10. B. Thomas-Asante
  11. S. Cherif
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. L. Miley
  6. J. Willock
  7. Nico González
  8. H. Barnes
  9. Y. Wissa
  10. J. Murphy
  11. M. Fernandez-Pardo

Substitutes D. Bentley, Y. Gboho, G. Hamer, J. Latibeaudiere, S. Mfuni, F. Onyeka, T. Sakamoto, E. Simms, V. Torp

Substitutes Joelinton, A. Bamba, D. Burn, A. Dedić, W. Osula, N. Pope, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré

Our call: 29% COV · 26% draw · 45% NEW  ·  bookmakers: 29% / 26% / 45%  ·  expected goals 1.17–1.52

Last updated 12 Oct at 19:12

What separates them

Reason◂ CoventryNewcastle ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.53
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.11
Defence 0.01
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.05
Newcastle ahead by 0.35

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Newcastle come out 0.35 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Newcastle goals Coventry goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Coventry 0–0 Newcastle: 7% Coventry 0–1 Newcastle: 10% Coventry 0–2 Newcastle: 8% Coventry 0–3 Newcastle: 4% Coventry 0–4 Newcastle: 2% Coventry 0–5 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 0–6 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 1–0 Newcastle: 8% Coventry 1–1 Newcastle: 12% Coventry 1–2 Newcastle: 9% Coventry 1–3 Newcastle: 5% Coventry 1–4 Newcastle: 2% Coventry 1–5 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 1–6 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 2–0 Newcastle: 5% Coventry 2–1 Newcastle: 7% Coventry 2–2 Newcastle: 5% Coventry 2–3 Newcastle: 3% Coventry 2–4 Newcastle: 1% Coventry 2–5 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 2–6 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 3–0 Newcastle: 2% Coventry 3–1 Newcastle: 3% Coventry 3–2 Newcastle: 2% Coventry 3–3 Newcastle: 1% Coventry 3–4 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 3–5 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 4–0 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 4–1 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 4–2 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 4–3 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 4–4 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 5–0 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 5–1 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 5–2 Newcastle: <1% Coventry 5–3 Newcastle: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Coventry win, above it Newcastle do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →