Which Team Will Win?

Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City

Sunday 11th October 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Manchester City win

0–3Full time

Liverpool crest
◀ Liverpool win Man City win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester City crest

Confidence: Slight

LIV MCI D-D-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.60 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-D W-D-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.24 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.92 3.29 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 72% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.96 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1640 Exceptional 1748 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.29 1.62 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.8 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game LIV MCI D-D-W-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.60 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-D-D-D-D W-D-D-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.24 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.92 3.29 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 72% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.56 1.96 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Very strong 1640 Exceptional 1748 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.29 1.62 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.8 5.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Manchester City lead it, 3.29 to 1.92. When this gap appears, whoever fielded the greater attacking threat tends to win, in around 73% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callManchester City to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, what this eleven creates and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For Manchester CityXI attacking output 3.29 v 1.92 (decisive); Home and away form W-D-D-W-W v W-D-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference 1.60 v 0.60 (useful).
  • For LiverpoolXI defensive record 1.29 v 1.62 (clear); GK save rate 72% v 72% (marginal).
  • FormLiverpool D-D-W-D-W, Manchester City W-W-W-W-W.
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 confirmedManchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Alisson Becker 6 M. Kerkez 4 V. van Dijk 5 J. Jacquet 33 R. Araujo 10 A. Mac Allister 38 R. Gravenberch 23 Víctor Muñoz 7 F. Wirtz 29 B. Barcola 67 L. Koumas
1 G. Donnarumma 33 N. O'Reilly 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben Dias 27 Matheus Nunes 17 E. Fernández 5 E. Anderson 7 I. Ndiaye 10 R. Cherki 42 A. Semenyo 9 E. Haaland
  1. Alisson Becker
  2. M. Kerkez
  3. V. van Dijk
  4. J. Jacquet
  5. R. Araujo
  6. A. Mac Allister
  7. R. Gravenberch
  8. Víctor Muñoz
  9. F. Wirtz
  10. B. Barcola
  11. L. Koumas
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. N. O'Reilly
  3. M. Guéhi
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. Matheus Nunes
  6. E. Fernández
  7. E. Anderson
  8. I. Ndiaye
  9. R. Cherki
  10. A. Semenyo
  11. E. Haaland

Substitutes F. Chiesa, W. Endo, J. Frimpong, J. Gomez, G. Mamardashvili, J. McConnell, R. Ngumoha, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Substitutes Allan, A. Bouaddi, J. Doku, J. Gvardiol, A. Khusanov, M. Kovačić, R. Lewis, G. Rulli, Vitor Reis

Our call: 30% LIV · 26% draw · 44% MCI  ·  bookmakers: 36% / 26% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.24–1.55

Last updated 11 Oct at 15:37

What separates them

Reason◂ LiverpoolMan City ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.46
Home advantage 0.28
XI attacking output 0.12
Shots on target 0.06
XI strength vs usual 0.04
Defence 0.03
Everything else 0.05
Man City ahead by 0.31

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man City come out 0.31 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man City goals Liverpool goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Liverpool 0–0 Man City: 7% Liverpool 0–1 Man City: 9% Liverpool 0–2 Man City: 7% Liverpool 0–3 Man City: 4% Liverpool 0–4 Man City: 1% Liverpool 0–5 Man City: <1% Liverpool 0–6 Man City: <1% Liverpool 1–0 Man City: 7% Liverpool 1–1 Man City: 12% Liverpool 1–2 Man City: 9% Liverpool 1–3 Man City: 5% Liverpool 1–4 Man City: 2% Liverpool 1–5 Man City: <1% Liverpool 1–6 Man City: <1% Liverpool 2–0 Man City: 5% Liverpool 2–1 Man City: 7% Liverpool 2–2 Man City: 6% Liverpool 2–3 Man City: 3% Liverpool 2–4 Man City: 1% Liverpool 2–5 Man City: <1% Liverpool 2–6 Man City: <1% Liverpool 3–0 Man City: 2% Liverpool 3–1 Man City: 3% Liverpool 3–2 Man City: 2% Liverpool 3–3 Man City: 1% Liverpool 3–4 Man City: <1% Liverpool 3–5 Man City: <1% Liverpool 4–0 Man City: <1% Liverpool 4–1 Man City: <1% Liverpool 4–2 Man City: <1% Liverpool 4–3 Man City: <1% Liverpool 4–4 Man City: <1% Liverpool 5–0 Man City: <1% Liverpool 5–1 Man City: <1% Liverpool 5–2 Man City: <1% Liverpool 5–3 Man City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Liverpool win, above it Man City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →