Which Team Will Win?

Hull City 2–2 Everton

Sunday 11th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Everton win

2–2Full time

Hull City crest
◀ Hull City win Everton win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Everton crest

Confidence: Slight

HUL EVE W-W-D-D-L W-D-D-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-L-W-D L-D-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.80 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.13 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.00 1.34 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.45 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 66% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1428 Above average 1538 Elo performance 1500 is average 0.90 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.82 2.39 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 3.3 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game HUL EVE W-W-D-D-L W-D-D-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches 0.40 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-L-W-D L-D-L-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.80 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.13 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.00 1.34 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.45 1.38 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 76% 66% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved Weak 1428 Above average 1538 Elo performance 1500 is average 0.90 1.45 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.82 2.39 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 3.3 4.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Defence. No other measure separates them as clearly. Everton lead it, 1.34 to 2.00. whoever was harder to score against normally comes out on top here – 66% of the time in recent seasons. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callEverton to win: 46% against 28%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and the defence in front of them – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For EvertonDefence 1.34 v 2.00 (clear); Attack 1.45 v 0.90 (clear); Elo performance 1538 v 1428 (useful).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 76% v 66% (decisive); Home and away form W-L-L-W-D v L-D-L-D-D (useful).
  • FormHull City W-W-D-D-L, Everton W-D-D-D-W.
Hull City 5-4-1 confirmedEverton 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Hull City 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

19 K. Tzolakis 32 N. Mendy 15 J. Egan 6 S. Ajayi 3 R. Giles 2 L. Coyle 7 S. Thomas 27 R. Slater 25 M. Crooks 11 J. Gelhardt 9 O. McBurnie
1 J. Pickford 4 Branthwaite 5 M. Keane 6 J. Tarkowski 2 Maitland-Niles 45 H. Armstrong 37 J. Garner 10 J. Grealish 8 Dewsbury-Hall 22 B. Johnson 11 T. Barry
  1. K. Tzolakis
  2. N. Mendy
  3. J. Egan
  4. S. Ajayi
  5. R. Giles
  6. L. Coyle
  7. S. Thomas
  8. R. Slater
  9. M. Crooks
  10. J. Gelhardt
  11. O. McBurnie
  1. J. Pickford
  2. J. Branthwaite
  3. M. Keane
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. A. Maitland-Niles
  6. H. Armstrong
  7. J. Garner
  8. J. Grealish
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. B. Johnson
  11. T. Barry

Substitutes P. McNair, M. Belloumi, L. Herrington, T. Iroegbunam, H. Morita, B. Norton-Cuffy, D. Phillips, E. Stroud, R. Vaz

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, T. George, B. Graham, H. Hackney, J. O'Brien, M. Röhl, C. Nørgaard, M. Travers

Our call: 28% HUL · 26% draw · 46% EVE  ·  bookmakers: 26% / 28% / 46%  ·  expected goals 1.13–1.50

Last updated 11 Oct at 16:08

What separates them

Reason◂ Hull CityEverton ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.44
Home advantage 0.26
Shots on target 0.11
Defence 0.07
XI attacking output 0.05
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.03
Everton ahead by 0.38

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Everton come out 0.38 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Everton goals Hull City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Hull City 0–0 Everton: 8% Hull City 0–1 Everton: 10% Hull City 0–2 Everton: 8% Hull City 0–3 Everton: 4% Hull City 0–4 Everton: 2% Hull City 0–5 Everton: <1% Hull City 0–6 Everton: <1% Hull City 1–0 Everton: 8% Hull City 1–1 Everton: 13% Hull City 1–2 Everton: 9% Hull City 1–3 Everton: 5% Hull City 1–4 Everton: 2% Hull City 1–5 Everton: <1% Hull City 1–6 Everton: <1% Hull City 2–0 Everton: 5% Hull City 2–1 Everton: 7% Hull City 2–2 Everton: 5% Hull City 2–3 Everton: 3% Hull City 2–4 Everton: <1% Hull City 2–5 Everton: <1% Hull City 2–6 Everton: <1% Hull City 3–0 Everton: 2% Hull City 3–1 Everton: 3% Hull City 3–2 Everton: 2% Hull City 3–3 Everton: <1% Hull City 3–4 Everton: <1% Hull City 3–5 Everton: <1% Hull City 4–0 Everton: <1% Hull City 4–1 Everton: <1% Hull City 4–2 Everton: <1% Hull City 4–3 Everton: <1% Hull City 4–4 Everton: <1% Hull City 5–0 Everton: <1% Hull City 5–1 Everton: <1% Hull City 5–2 Everton: <1% Hull City 5–3 Everton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Hull City win, above it Everton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →