Which Team Will Win?

Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest

Sunday 11th October 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Crystal Palace win

3–1Full time

Crystal Palace crest
◀ Crystal Palace win Forest win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Nottingham Forest crest

Knife-edge – Crystal Palace shade it

CRY NFO L-L-W-L-D L-D-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-L-L-L W-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.35 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.94 1.27 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.69 1.20 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.21 1.54 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 71% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.12 2.50 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven CRY NFO L-L-W-L-D L-D-D-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 D-D-L-L-L W-W-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.35 1.27 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.94 1.27 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.69 1.20 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.21 1.54 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 71% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.12 2.50 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Defence. This is the widest gap between them. Nottingham Forest come out on top, 1.27 against 1.94. In matches like this, the side with the tighter defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

Against the call – it favours Nottingham Forest; the fine margin sits with Crystal Palace, who edge home advantage.

  • The callKnife-edge – Crystal Palace 38%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 35%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Crystal Palace comes from home advantage.
  • For Crystal PalaceGoals 1.35 v 1.27 (marginal); Possession 50% v 50% (marginal).
  • For Nottingham ForestGoal difference at this venue 1.40 v -1.00 (decisive); Home and away form W-W-L-D-W v D-D-L-L-L (decisive); XI defensive record 1.20 v 1.69 (decisive).
  • FormCrystal Palace L-L-W-L-D, Nottingham Forest L-D-D-W-L.
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmedNottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

44 W. Benítez 6 J. Canvot 8 J. Lerma 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 20 A. Wharton 23 Q. Timber 25 A. Khalaili 10 Yéremy Pino 18 D. Kamada 22 J. Strand Larsen
26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 2 O. Diomande 34 O. Aina 3 N. Williams 21 X. Schlager 24 J. McAtee 27 D. Muñoz 10 M. Gibbs-White 14 D. Ndoye 19 L. Delap
  1. W. Benítez
  2. J. Canvot
  3. J. Lerma
  4. C. Richards
  5. T. Mitchell
  6. A. Wharton
  7. Q. Timber
  8. A. Khalaili
  9. Yéremy Pino
  10. D. Kamada
  11. J. Strand Larsen
  1. M. Sels
  2. Murillo
  3. O. Diomande
  4. O. Aina
  5. N. Williams
  6. X. Schlager
  7. J. McAtee
  8. D. Muñoz
  9. M. Gibbs-White
  10. D. Ndoye
  11. L. Delap

Substitutes H. Ahanor, C. Doucouré, E. Guessand, W. Hughes, R. Matthews, D. McNeil, Óscar Mingueza, E. Nketiah, I. Sarr

Substitutes N. Domínguez, C. Hudson-Odoi, A. Kalimuendo, John Victor, L. Netz, Jair Cunha, I. Sangaré, C. Wood, R. Yates

Our call: 38% CRY · 27% draw · 35% NFO  ·  bookmakers: 36% / 28% / 36%  ·  expected goals 1.35–1.27

Last updated 11 Oct at 13:05

What separates them

Reason◂ Crystal PalaceForest ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.26
Defence 0.07
Shots on target 0.05
Long-run strength 0.05
XI attacking output 0.03
XI defensive record 0.03
Everything else 0.04
Crystal Palace ahead by 0.07

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Crystal Palace come out 0.07 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Forest goals Crystal Palace goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Crystal Palace 0–0 Forest: 8% Crystal Palace 0–1 Forest: 9% Crystal Palace 0–2 Forest: 6% Crystal Palace 0–3 Forest: 3% Crystal Palace 0–4 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 0–5 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 1–0 Forest: 9% Crystal Palace 1–1 Forest: 13% Crystal Palace 1–2 Forest: 8% Crystal Palace 1–3 Forest: 3% Crystal Palace 1–4 Forest: 1% Crystal Palace 1–5 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 1–6 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 2–0 Forest: 7% Crystal Palace 2–1 Forest: 8% Crystal Palace 2–2 Forest: 5% Crystal Palace 2–3 Forest: 2% Crystal Palace 2–4 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 2–5 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 3–0 Forest: 3% Crystal Palace 3–1 Forest: 4% Crystal Palace 3–2 Forest: 2% Crystal Palace 3–3 Forest: 1% Crystal Palace 3–4 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 3–5 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 4–0 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 4–1 Forest: 1% Crystal Palace 4–2 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 4–3 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 4–4 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 5–0 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 5–1 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 5–2 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 5–3 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 6–0 Forest: <1% Crystal Palace 6–1 Forest: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Crystal Palace win, above it Forest do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →