Which Team Will Win?

Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur

Saturday 10th October 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Manchester United win

1–1Full time

Manchester United crest
◀ Man United win Tottenham win ▶ 20% draw chance bookmakers
Tottenham Hotspur crest

Confidence: Strong

MUN TOT L-W-D-L-D L-L-D-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.00 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-L W-W-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.10 0.90 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.99 1.11 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Strong 1606 Below average 1448 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.00 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven MUN TOT L-W-D-L-D L-L-D-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches 0.00 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-L W-W-L-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.00 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.10 0.90 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.99 1.11 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 71% 65% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.6 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game Strong 1606 Below average 1448 Elo performance 1500 is average 3.00 2.27 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven

The key stat: Attack. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Manchester United come out on top, 1.99 against 1.11. Historically, the more productive attack takes these roughly 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callManchester United to win: 65% against 15%, with the draw at 20%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.6 v 3.4 (decisive); Attack 1.99 v 1.11 (decisive); Goals 2.10 v 0.90 (clear).
  • For Tottenham HotspurPossession 55% v 45% (clear).
  • FormManchester United L-W-D-L-D, Tottenham Hotspur L-L-D-D-L.
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmedTottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 S. Lammens 23 L. Shaw 6 L. Martínez 5 H. Maguire 15 L. Yoro 37 K. Mainoo 18 Y. Tielemans 19 B. Mbeumo 8 Bruno Fernandes 16 A. Diallo 10 Matheus Cunha
31 A. Kinský 13 D. Udogie 5 M. Senesi 6 J. van Hecke 14 A. Gray 16 S. Tonali 15 L. Bergvall 20 M. Kudus 8 C. Gallagher 17 Sávio 19 D. Solanke
  1. S. Lammens
  2. L. Shaw
  3. L. Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. L. Yoro
  6. K. Mainoo
  7. Y. Tielemans
  8. B. Mbeumo
  9. Bruno Fernandes
  10. A. Diallo
  11. Matheus Cunha
  1. A. Kinský
  2. D. Udogie
  3. M. Senesi
  4. J. van Hecke
  5. A. Gray
  6. S. Tonali
  7. L. Bergvall
  8. M. Kudus
  9. C. Gallagher
  10. Sávio
  11. D. Solanke

Substitutes C. Baleba, Diogo Dalot, K. Darlow, A. Heaven, S. Lacey, M. Mount, Andrey Santos, M. Rashford, J. Zirkzee

Substitutes T. Adarabioyo, R. Bentancur, B. Davies, M. Dúbravka, Mateus Fernandes, J. Maddison, Omar Marmoush, M. Tel, M. van de Ven

Our call: 65% MUN · 20% draw · 15% TOT  ·  bookmakers: 56% / 23% / 22%  ·  expected goals 2.10–0.90

Last updated 10 Oct at 16:38

What separates them

Reason◂ Man UnitedTottenham ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.69
Home advantage 0.28
Shots on target 0.25
XI attacking output 0.07
Settled eleven 0.06
Defence 0.02
Everything else 0.12
Man United ahead by 1.20

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Man United come out 1.20 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Tottenham goals Man United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man United 0–0 Tottenham: 5% Man United 0–1 Tottenham: 4% Man United 0–2 Tottenham: 2% Man United 0–3 Tottenham: <1% Man United 0–4 Tottenham: <1% Man United 1–0 Tottenham: 10% Man United 1–1 Tottenham: 10% Man United 1–2 Tottenham: 4% Man United 1–3 Tottenham: 1% Man United 1–4 Tottenham: <1% Man United 1–5 Tottenham: <1% Man United 2–0 Tottenham: 11% Man United 2–1 Tottenham: 10% Man United 2–2 Tottenham: 4% Man United 2–3 Tottenham: 1% Man United 2–4 Tottenham: <1% Man United 2–5 Tottenham: <1% Man United 3–0 Tottenham: 8% Man United 3–1 Tottenham: 7% Man United 3–2 Tottenham: 3% Man United 3–3 Tottenham: <1% Man United 3–4 Tottenham: <1% Man United 4–0 Tottenham: 4% Man United 4–1 Tottenham: 4% Man United 4–2 Tottenham: 2% Man United 4–3 Tottenham: <1% Man United 4–4 Tottenham: <1% Man United 5–0 Tottenham: 2% Man United 5–1 Tottenham: 2% Man United 5–2 Tottenham: <1% Man United 5–3 Tottenham: <1% Man United 6–0 Tottenham: <1% Man United 6–1 Tottenham: <1% Man United 6–2 Tottenham: <1% Man United 6–3 Tottenham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man United win, above it Tottenham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →