Which Team Will Win?

Sunderland 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion

Saturday 10th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Brighton & Hove Albion win

0–2Full time

Sunderland crest
◀ Sunderland win Brighton win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Brighton & Hove Albion crest

Knife-edge – Brighton & Hove Albion shade it

SUN BHA L-W-D-L-L W-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.80 2.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-D-W-W-L D-L-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.89 2.04 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1485 Strong 1581 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.42 1.50 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.4 5.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game 59% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved SUN BHA L-W-D-L-L W-L-D-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches -0.80 2.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-D-W-W-L D-L-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.00 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 45% 55% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.28 1.55 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.89 2.04 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1485 Strong 1581 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.42 1.50 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 4.4 5.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game 59% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Attack. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Brighton & Hove Albion lead it, 2.04 to 1.89. When this gap appears, the side scoring more freely tends to win, in around 72% of cases. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Sunderland 31%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 43%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Brighton & Hove Albion comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and changes in the other camp.
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionGoal difference 2.20 v -0.80 (decisive); GK save rate 67% v 59% (clear); Possession 55% v 45% (clear).
  • For SunderlandHome and away form L-D-W-W-L v D-L-L-L-W (useful); XI defensive record 1.42 v 1.50 (slight).
  • FormSunderland L-W-D-L-L, Brighton & Hove Albion W-L-D-W-W.
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmedBrighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

22 R. Roefs 17 Reinildo Mandava 4 K. Danso 20 N. Mukiele 32 T. Hume 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 10 N. Angulo 28 E. Le Fée 12 T. Meunier 18 W. Isidor
1 B. Verbruggen 21 O. Boscagli 4 P. Struijk 44 L. Vušković 24 F. Kadıoğlu 13 P. Groß 14 Chema Andrés 29 M. De Cuyper 26 Y. Ayari 25 D. Gómez 19 C. Kostoulas
  1. R. Roefs
  2. Reinildo Mandava
  3. K. Danso
  4. N. Mukiele
  5. T. Hume
  6. N. Sadiki
  7. G. Xhaka
  8. N. Angulo
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Meunier
  11. W. Isidor
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. O. Boscagli
  3. P. Struijk
  4. L. Vušković
  5. F. Kadıoğlu
  6. P. Groß
  7. Chema Andrés
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. Y. Ayari
  10. D. Gómez
  11. C. Kostoulas

Substitutes O. Alderete, R. Angulo, J. Bi, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, D. Méthalie, L. O'Nien, C. Rigg, C. Talbi

Substitutes P. David, L. Dunk, J. Hadjam, Costinha, M. O'Riley, I. Osman, G. Rutter, J. Steele, M. Yalcouyé

Our call: 31% SUN · 26% draw · 43% BHA  ·  bookmakers: 32% / 27% / 41%  ·  expected goals 1.28–1.55

Last updated 10 Oct at 14:04

What separates them

Reason◂ SunderlandBrighton ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.41
Home advantage 0.28
Shots on target 0.16
Settled eleven 0.04
XI strength vs usual 0.01
Everything else 0.05
Brighton ahead by 0.27

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Brighton come out 0.27 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brighton goals Sunderland goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Sunderland 0–0 Brighton: 6% Sunderland 0–1 Brighton: 9% Sunderland 0–2 Brighton: 7% Sunderland 0–3 Brighton: 4% Sunderland 0–4 Brighton: 1% Sunderland 0–5 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 0–6 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 1–0 Brighton: 7% Sunderland 1–1 Brighton: 12% Sunderland 1–2 Brighton: 9% Sunderland 1–3 Brighton: 5% Sunderland 1–4 Brighton: 2% Sunderland 1–5 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 1–6 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 2–0 Brighton: 5% Sunderland 2–1 Brighton: 7% Sunderland 2–2 Brighton: 6% Sunderland 2–3 Brighton: 3% Sunderland 2–4 Brighton: 1% Sunderland 2–5 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 2–6 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 3–0 Brighton: 2% Sunderland 3–1 Brighton: 3% Sunderland 3–2 Brighton: 2% Sunderland 3–3 Brighton: 1% Sunderland 3–4 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 3–5 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 4–0 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 4–1 Brighton: 1% Sunderland 4–2 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 4–3 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 4–4 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 4–5 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 5–0 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 5–1 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 5–2 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 5–3 Brighton: <1% Sunderland 6–1 Brighton: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Sunderland win, above it Brighton do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →