Which Team Will Win?

Ipswich Town 2–1 Fulham

Saturday 10th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Fulham win

2–1Full time

Ipswich Town crest
◀ Ipswich Town win Fulham win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Fulham crest

Confidence: Slight

IPS FUL W-L-L-W-L L-L-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.80 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-L-W-L D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 44% 56% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.19 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Very weak 1378 Average 1506 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.57 1.46 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.29 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 57% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.8 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game IPS FUL W-L-L-W-L L-L-L-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches -0.80 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-L-W-L D-L-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -1.60 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 44% 56% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.19 1.50 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Very weak 1378 Average 1506 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.57 1.46 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.29 2.57 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 57% 70% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 3.8 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Fulham lead it, Average to Very weak. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callFulham to win: 44% against 30%, with the draw at 26%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For FulhamGK save rate 70% v 57% (decisive); Possession 56% v 44% (clear); Elo performance 1506 v 1378 (useful).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormIpswich Town W-L-L-W-L, Fulham L-L-L-D-D.
Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 confirmedFulham 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

28 C. Walton 3 L. Davis 26 D. O'Shea 6 I. Diop 42 A. Ouattara 12 Florentino 23 S. Lukić 11 J. Philogene 10 J. Enciso 38 D. Maeda 19 Emersonn
1 B. Leno 30 R. Sessegnon 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 2 K. Tete 19 S. Charles 16 S. Berge 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 7 Gonzalo García
  1. C. Walton
  2. L. Davis
  3. D. O'Shea
  4. I. Diop
  5. A. Ouattara
  6. Florentino
  7. S. Lukić
  8. J. Philogene
  9. J. Enciso
  10. D. Maeda
  11. Emersonn
  1. B. Leno
  2. R. Sessegnon
  3. C. Bassey
  4. D. Affengruber
  5. K. Tete
  6. S. Charles
  7. S. Berge
  8. A. Iwobi
  9. J. King
  10. O. Bobb
  11. Gonzalo García

Substitutes C. Akpom, J. Clarke, Z. Flemming, D. Furlong, J. Greaves, A. Matusiwa, E. Palacios, K. Scherpen, S. Egeli

Substitutes J. Andersen, T. Castagne, H. Larsson, B. Lecomte, Manuel Ángel, Rodrigo Muniz, César Palacios, Kevin, E. Smith Rowe

Our call: 30% IPS · 26% draw · 44% FUL  ·  bookmakers: 34% / 27% / 39%  ·  expected goals 1.19–1.50

Last updated 10 Oct at 14:04

What separates them

Reason◂ Ipswich TownFulham ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.52
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.04
XI attacking output 0.02
XI strength vs usual 0.02
Settled eleven 0.01
Everything else 0.02
Fulham ahead by 0.30

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Fulham come out 0.30 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Fulham goals Ipswich Town goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Ipswich Town 0–0 Fulham: 7% Ipswich Town 0–1 Fulham: 10% Ipswich Town 0–2 Fulham: 8% Ipswich Town 0–3 Fulham: 4% Ipswich Town 0–4 Fulham: 1% Ipswich Town 0–5 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 0–6 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 1–0 Fulham: 8% Ipswich Town 1–1 Fulham: 12% Ipswich Town 1–2 Fulham: 9% Ipswich Town 1–3 Fulham: 5% Ipswich Town 1–4 Fulham: 2% Ipswich Town 1–5 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 1–6 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 2–0 Fulham: 5% Ipswich Town 2–1 Fulham: 7% Ipswich Town 2–2 Fulham: 5% Ipswich Town 2–3 Fulham: 3% Ipswich Town 2–4 Fulham: 1% Ipswich Town 2–5 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 2–6 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 3–0 Fulham: 2% Ipswich Town 3–1 Fulham: 3% Ipswich Town 3–2 Fulham: 2% Ipswich Town 3–3 Fulham: 1% Ipswich Town 3–4 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 3–5 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 4–0 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 4–1 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 4–2 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 4–3 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 4–4 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 5–0 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 5–1 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 5–2 Fulham: <1% Ipswich Town 5–3 Fulham: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Ipswich Town win, above it Fulham do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →