Which Team Will Win?

Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth

Saturday 10th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Chelsea win

5–1Full time

Chelsea crest
◀ Chelsea win Bournemouth win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Bournemouth crest

Knife-edge – Chelsea shade it

CHE BOU W-W-L-D-L L-D-D-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W-W-D W-W-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.39 1.35 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 4.1 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.84 1.34 Defence Conceded per game 1.59 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.15 2.39 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.19 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game CHE BOU W-W-L-D-L L-D-D-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches -0.40 -0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 L-L-W-W-D W-W-D-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 0.20 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.39 1.35 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 4.1 4.9 Exp: Shots on target Per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.84 1.34 Defence Conceded per game 1.59 1.33 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 2.15 2.39 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.19 1.38 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: Shots on target. This is the widest gap between them. Bournemouth come out on top, 4.9 against 4.1. In matches like this, whoever worked the keeper harder usually wins – about 73% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

Against the call – it points Bournemouth's way, and the knife-edge lean still goes to Chelsea – on home advantage.

  • The callKnife-edge – Chelsea 38%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 36%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Chelsea comes from home advantage.
  • For ChelseaPossession 51% v 49% (slight); Goals 1.39 v 1.35 (marginal).
  • For BournemouthDefence 1.34 v 1.84 (clear); XI defensive record 1.33 v 1.59 (useful); Shots on target 4.9 v 4.1 (useful).
  • FormChelsea W-W-L-D-L, Bournemouth L-D-D-D-L.
Chelsea 3-4-3 confirmedBournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Chelsea 3-4-3

Confirmed starting XI

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 E. Martínez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 34 J. Acheampong 29 Pep Chavarría 25 M. Caicedo 14 J. Henderson 7 Pedro Neto 17 M. Rogers 9 João Pedro 10 C. Palmer
1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 14 António Silva 5 J. Hill 15 A. Smith 10 R. Christie 12 T. Adams 7 D. Brooks 16 M. Tavernier 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
  1. E. Martínez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. J. Acheampong
  5. Pep Chavarría
  6. M. Caicedo
  7. J. Henderson
  8. Pedro Neto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. João Pedro
  11. C. Palmer
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. António Silva
  4. J. Hill
  5. A. Smith
  6. R. Christie
  7. T. Adams
  8. D. Brooks
  9. M. Tavernier
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson

Substitutes Estêvão, W. Fofana, M. Gusto, J. Hato, R. Lavia, M. Palestra, M. Penders, D. Welbeck, Geovany Quenda

Substitutes L. Cook, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, D. Jebbison, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez, A. Tóth

Our call: 38% CHE · 26% draw · 36% BOU  ·  bookmakers: 57% / 22% / 21%  ·  expected goals 1.39–1.35

Last updated 10 Oct at 14:12

What separates them

Reason◂ ChelseaBournemouth ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.09
Defence 0.05
Long-run strength 0.05
Settled eleven 0.03
XI attacking output 0.02
Chelsea ahead by 0.04

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Chelsea come out 0.04 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Bournemouth goals Chelsea goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Chelsea 0–0 Bournemouth: 7% Chelsea 0–1 Bournemouth: 8% Chelsea 0–2 Bournemouth: 6% Chelsea 0–3 Bournemouth: 3% Chelsea 0–4 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 0–5 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 0–6 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 1–0 Bournemouth: 9% Chelsea 1–1 Bournemouth: 12% Chelsea 1–2 Bournemouth: 8% Chelsea 1–3 Bournemouth: 4% Chelsea 1–4 Bournemouth: 1% Chelsea 1–5 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 1–6 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 2–0 Bournemouth: 6% Chelsea 2–1 Bournemouth: 8% Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth: 6% Chelsea 2–3 Bournemouth: 3% Chelsea 2–4 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 2–5 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 2–6 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 3–0 Bournemouth: 3% Chelsea 3–1 Bournemouth: 4% Chelsea 3–2 Bournemouth: 3% Chelsea 3–3 Bournemouth: 1% Chelsea 3–4 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 3–5 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 4–0 Bournemouth: 1% Chelsea 4–1 Bournemouth: 1% Chelsea 4–2 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 4–3 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 4–4 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 5–0 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 5–2 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 5–3 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 6–0 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 6–1 Bournemouth: <1% Chelsea 6–2 Bournemouth: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Chelsea win, above it Bournemouth do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →