Which Team Will Win?

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford

Saturday 10th October 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Aston Villa win

2–2Full time

Aston Villa crest
◀ Aston Villa win Brentford win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Brentford crest

Confidence: Slight

AVL BRE L-L-D-L-W W-D-D-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.43 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.08 1.79 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 73% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.93 2.42 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.63 1.54 Defence Conceded per game 1.47 1.49 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1590 Strong 1566 Elo performance 1500 is average 102% 87% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven AVL BRE L-L-D-L-W W-D-D-D-W Recent form Last 5 matches -1.00 1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-L-W-L-L L-L-D-D-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.00 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 52% 48% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.43 1.11 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT – AGAINST THE CALL 1.08 1.79 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 73% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.93 2.42 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.63 1.54 Defence Conceded per game 1.47 1.49 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1590 Strong 1566 Elo performance 1500 is average 102% 87% XI strength vs usual 100% is the usual eleven

The key stat: Attack. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Brentford come out on top, 1.79 against 1.08. Historically, the more productive attack takes these roughly 72% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – Brentford come out ahead on it, and Aston Villa are favoured anyway – on the strength of home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the strength of this eleven against their usual one.

  • The callAston Villa to win: 44% against 29%, with the draw at 27%. Confidence slight.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, the long-run strength gap and the strength of this eleven against their usual one – the strongest pull the other way is recent shots on target.
  • For Aston VillaXI strength vs usual 102% v 87% (clear); Home and away form W-L-W-L-L v L-L-D-D-D (useful); Goal difference at this venue 0.00 v -0.80 (useful).
  • For BrentfordGoal difference 1.20 v -1.00 (decisive); Attack 1.79 v 1.08 (clear); XI attacking output 2.42 v 1.93 (useful).
  • FormAston Villa L-L-D-L-W, Brentford W-D-D-D-W.
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmedBrentford 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Z. Suzuki 13 M. Ruggeri 5 T. Mings 3 V. Lindelöf 2 M. Cash 35 João Gomes 8 B. Kamara 44 J. Manzambi 10 E. Buendía 7 J. McGinn 11 N. Jackson
1 C. Kelleher 25 E. Diouf 44 J. Schuster 20 K. Ajer 33 M. Kayode 27 V. Janelt 6 Y. Yarmoliuk 7 K. Schade 23 Lewis-Potter 19 J. Anthony 9 Igor Thiago
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. M. Ruggeri
  3. T. Mings
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. M. Cash
  6. João Gomes
  7. B. Kamara
  8. J. Manzambi
  9. E. Buendía
  10. J. McGinn
  11. N. Jackson
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. E. Diouf
  3. J. Schuster
  4. K. Ajer
  5. M. Kayode
  6. V. Janelt
  7. Y. Yarmoliuk
  8. K. Schade
  9. K. Lewis-Potter
  10. J. Anthony
  11. Igor Thiago

Substitutes T. Abraham, R. Barkley, M. Bizot, L. Bogarde, Pau Torres, A. Garnacho, I. Mbaye, A. Wan-Bissaka, Alysson

Substitutes B. Fredrick, Fábio Carvalho, A. Hickey, M. Jensen, D. Ouattara, M. Sangaré, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, S. van den Berg

Our call: 44% AVL · 27% draw · 29% BRE  ·  bookmakers: 36% / 27% / 37%  ·  expected goals 1.43–1.11

Last updated 10 Oct at 14:04

What separates them

Reason◂ Aston VillaBrentford ▸Goals
Home advantage 0.25
Long-run strength 0.09
Shots on target 0.05
XI attacking output 0.04
XI strength vs usual 0.03
Everything else 0.04
Aston Villa ahead by 0.32

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Aston Villa come out 0.32 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Brentford goals Aston Villa goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Aston Villa 0–0 Brentford: 8% Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford: 8% Aston Villa 0–2 Brentford: 5% Aston Villa 0–3 Brentford: 2% Aston Villa 0–4 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 0–5 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 1–0 Brentford: 11% Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford: 13% Aston Villa 1–2 Brentford: 7% Aston Villa 1–3 Brentford: 3% Aston Villa 1–4 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 1–5 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 2–0 Brentford: 8% Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford: 9% Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford: 5% Aston Villa 2–3 Brentford: 2% Aston Villa 2–4 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 2–5 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 3–0 Brentford: 4% Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford: 4% Aston Villa 3–2 Brentford: 2% Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 3–4 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 3–5 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 4–0 Brentford: 1% Aston Villa 4–1 Brentford: 2% Aston Villa 4–2 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 4–3 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 4–4 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 5–0 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 5–1 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 5–2 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 5–3 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 6–0 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 6–1 Brentford: <1% Aston Villa 6–2 Brentford: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Aston Villa win, above it Brentford do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →