Which Team Will Win?

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United

Saturday 10th October 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 6 · Full time

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Arsenal win

2–1Full time

Arsenal crest
◀ Arsenal win Leeds United win ▶ 19% draw chance bookmakers
Leeds United crest

Confidence: Very strong

ARS LEE W-W-W-W-L W-D-D-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.80 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-D-L-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.75 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1749 Average 1521 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 73% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.79 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.97 1.23 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.86 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 5.1 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game ARS LEE W-W-W-W-L W-D-D-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches 0.80 0.80 Goal difference Per game, last 5 W-W-W-W-W D-D-L-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.18 0.75 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1749 Average 1521 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 73% 75% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.79 2.20 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 0.97 1.23 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 0.86 1.42 Defence Conceded per game 5.1 3.7 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Arsenal come out on top, Exceptional against Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callArsenal to win: 70% against 11%, with the draw at 19%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is changes in the other camp.
  • For ArsenalHome and away form W-W-W-W-W v D-D-L-W-D (decisive); Elo performance 1749 v 1521 (decisive); Goals 2.18 v 0.75 (decisive).
  • For Leeds UnitedGK save rate 75% v 73% (slight).
  • FormArsenal W-W-W-W-L, Leeds United W-D-D-W-D.
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmedLeeds United 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Leeds United 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 15 E. Konsa 4 B. White 49 M. Lewis-Skelly 41 D. Rice 20 N. Madueke 8 M. Ødegaard 7 B. Saka 29 K. Havertz
1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 18 A. Stach 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. E. Konsa
  5. B. White
  6. M. Lewis-Skelly
  7. D. Rice
  8. N. Madueke
  9. M. Ødegaard
  10. B. Saka
  11. K. Havertz
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. J. Bogle
  9. N. Okafor
  10. A. Stach
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin

Substitutes Kepa Arrizabalaga, M. Dowman, E. Eze, Bruno Guimarães, V. Gyökeres, P. Hincapié, Mikel Merino, J. Timber, Martín Zubimendi

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Our call: 70% ARS · 19% draw · 11% LEE  ·  bookmakers: 68% / 20% / 12%  ·  expected goals 2.18–0.75

Last updated 10 Oct at 11:36

What separates them

Reason◂ ArsenalLeeds United ▸Goals
Long-run strength 0.94
Home advantage 0.27
Shots on target 0.15
Defence 0.06
XI attacking output 0.05
Settled eleven 0.04
Arsenal ahead by 1.43

Each bar is one thing the model weighs, pointing to the side it helps, and its length is the goals it is worth. Add them up and Arsenal come out 1.43 goals ahead.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Leeds United goals Arsenal goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Arsenal 0–0 Leeds United: 6% Arsenal 0–1 Leeds United: 4% Arsenal 0–2 Leeds United: 2% Arsenal 0–3 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 0–4 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 1–0 Leeds United: 11% Arsenal 1–1 Leeds United: 9% Arsenal 1–2 Leeds United: 3% Arsenal 1–3 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 1–4 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 2–0 Leeds United: 13% Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United: 10% Arsenal 2–2 Leeds United: 4% Arsenal 2–3 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 2–4 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 3–0 Leeds United: 9% Arsenal 3–1 Leeds United: 7% Arsenal 3–2 Leeds United: 3% Arsenal 3–3 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 3–4 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 4–0 Leeds United: 5% Arsenal 4–1 Leeds United: 4% Arsenal 4–2 Leeds United: 1% Arsenal 4–3 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 4–4 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 5–0 Leeds United: 2% Arsenal 5–1 Leeds United: 2% Arsenal 5–2 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 5–3 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 6–0 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 6–1 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 6–2 Leeds United: <1% Arsenal 6–3 Leeds United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Arsenal win, above it Leeds United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →