Which Team Will Win?

Fulham 1–1 Manchester United

Sunday 20th September 2026 (Kick Off: 16:30) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Manchester United win

1–1Full time

Fulham crest
◀ Fulham win Man United win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Manchester United crest

Knife-edge – Manchester United shade it

FUL MUN W-L-L-L-D W-L-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-W-L-L W-D-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.00 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.22 1.44 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.39 1.97 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1505 Strong 1607 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.41 3.01 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.47 1.26 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.6 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game FUL MUN W-L-L-L-D W-L-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-L-W-L-L W-D-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.00 0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 54% 46% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.22 1.44 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.39 1.97 Attack Goals and expected goals per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE Average 1505 Strong 1607 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.41 3.01 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 1.47 1.26 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 3.6 5.1 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Attack. No other measure separates them as clearly. Manchester United lead it, 1.97 to 1.39. the more productive attack normally comes out on top here – 72% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Fulham 32%, draw 27%, Manchester United 42%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Manchester United comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.
  • For Manchester UnitedShots on target 5.1 v 3.6 (clear); Attack 1.97 v 1.39 (clear); XI attacking output 3.01 v 2.41 (useful).
  • For FulhamPossession 54% v 46% (useful).
  • FormFulham W-L-L-L-D, Manchester United W-L-W-D-L.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Fulham 4-2-3-1 confirmedManchester United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Leno 33 A. Robinson 3 C. Bassey 22 Affengruber 21 T. Castagne 19 S. Charles 16 S. Berge 17 A. Iwobi 24 J. King 14 O. Bobb 7 Gonzalo García
1 S. Lammens 23 L. Shaw 6 Lisandro Martínez 5 H. Maguire 2 Diogo Dalot 18 Y. Tielemans 37 K. Mainoo 9 M. Rashford 8 Bruno Fernandes 19 B. Mbeumo 10 Matheus Cunha
  1. B. Leno
  2. A. Robinson
  3. C. Bassey
  4. D. Affengruber
  5. T. Castagne
  6. S. Charles
  7. S. Berge
  8. A. Iwobi
  9. J. King
  10. O. Bobb
  11. Gonzalo García
  1. S. Lammens
  2. L. Shaw
  3. Lisandro Martínez
  4. H. Maguire
  5. Diogo Dalot
  6. Y. Tielemans
  7. K. Mainoo
  8. M. Rashford
  9. Bruno Fernandes
  10. B. Mbeumo
  11. Matheus Cunha

Substitutes J. Andersen, H. Larsson, B. Lecomte, Manuel Ángel, Rodrigo Muniz, César Palacios, Kevin, R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe

Substitutes C. Baleba, K. Darlow, P. Dorgu, S. Lacey, N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, Andrey Santos, L. Yoro, J. Zirkzee

Our call: 32% FUL · 27% draw · 42% MUN  ·  bookmakers: 28% / 25% / 47%  ·  expected goals 1.22–1.44

Last updated 20 Sept at 18:13

What separates them

The lean to Man United comes from the long-run strength gap, recent shots on target and what this eleven creates.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Man United goals Fulham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Fulham 0–0 Man United: 7% Fulham 0–1 Man United: 10% Fulham 0–2 Man United: 7% Fulham 0–3 Man United: 3% Fulham 0–4 Man United: 1% Fulham 0–5 Man United: <1% Fulham 0–6 Man United: <1% Fulham 1–0 Man United: 8% Fulham 1–1 Man United: 13% Fulham 1–2 Man United: 9% Fulham 1–3 Man United: 4% Fulham 1–4 Man United: 2% Fulham 1–5 Man United: <1% Fulham 1–6 Man United: <1% Fulham 2–0 Man United: 5% Fulham 2–1 Man United: 7% Fulham 2–2 Man United: 5% Fulham 2–3 Man United: 3% Fulham 2–4 Man United: <1% Fulham 2–5 Man United: <1% Fulham 2–6 Man United: <1% Fulham 3–0 Man United: 2% Fulham 3–1 Man United: 3% Fulham 3–2 Man United: 2% Fulham 3–3 Man United: 1% Fulham 3–4 Man United: <1% Fulham 3–5 Man United: <1% Fulham 4–0 Man United: <1% Fulham 4–1 Man United: <1% Fulham 4–2 Man United: <1% Fulham 4–3 Man United: <1% Fulham 4–4 Man United: <1% Fulham 5–0 Man United: <1% Fulham 5–1 Man United: <1% Fulham 5–2 Man United: <1% Fulham 5–3 Man United: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Fulham win, above it Man United do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →