Which Team Will Win?

Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool

Sunday 20th September 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Liverpool win

0–1Full time

Bournemouth crest
◀ Bournemouth win Liverpool win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Liverpool crest

Knife-edge – Liverpool shade it

BOU LIV D-L-D-D-D D-D-D-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-D-D W-L-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.40 1.42 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.41 2.61 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 67% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.26 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1584 Very strong 1629 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.65 1.52 Attack Goals and expected goals per game BOU LIV D-L-D-D-D D-D-D-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-D-D W-L-L-D-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.40 1.42 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 2.41 2.61 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 67% 72% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.26 1.36 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Strong 1584 Very strong 1629 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.65 1.52 Attack Goals and expected goals per game

The key stat: XI attacking output. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Liverpool: 2.61 to 2.41. Historically, the side naming the more potent eleven takes these roughly 72% of the time. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callKnife-edge – Bournemouth 37%, draw 26%, Liverpool 38%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Liverpool comes from the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.
  • For LiverpoolGK save rate 72% v 67% (useful); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • For BournemouthGoal difference at this venue 0.60 v 0.00 (slight); XI defensive record 1.26 v 1.36 (slight); Attack 1.65 v 1.52 (slight).
  • FormBournemouth D-L-D-D-D, Liverpool D-D-D-W-D.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 confirmedLiverpool 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Liverpool 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 Đ. Petrović 3 A. Truffert 14 António Silva 5 J. Hill 15 A. Smith 8 A. Scott 12 T. Adams 16 M. Tavernier 10 R. Christie 37 Rayan 9 Evanilson
1 Alisson Becker 6 M. Kerkez 5 J. Jacquet 4 V. van Dijk 33 R. Araujo 8 D. Szoboszlai 10 A. Mac Allister 18 C. Gakpo 7 F. Wirtz 29 B. Barcola 9 A. Isak
  1. Đ. Petrović
  2. A. Truffert
  3. António Silva
  4. J. Hill
  5. A. Smith
  6. A. Scott
  7. T. Adams
  8. M. Tavernier
  9. R. Christie
  10. Rayan
  11. Evanilson
  1. Alisson Becker
  2. M. Kerkez
  3. J. Jacquet
  4. V. van Dijk
  5. R. Araujo
  6. D. Szoboszlai
  7. A. Mac Allister
  8. C. Gakpo
  9. F. Wirtz
  10. B. Barcola
  11. A. Isak

Substitutes D. Brooks, L. Cook, M. Di Gregorio, B. Diakité, B. Gannon-Doak, D. Jebbison, J. Soler, Juanlu Sánchez, A. Tóth

Substitutes J. Frimpong, J. Gomez, R. Gravenberch, L. Koumas, G. Mamardashvili, Víctor Muñoz, R. Ngumoha, T. Nyoni, K. Tsimikas

Our call: 37% BOU · 26% draw · 38% LIV  ·  bookmakers: 31% / 25% / 44%  ·  expected goals 1.40–1.42

Last updated 20 Sept at 13:07

What separates them

The lean to Liverpool comes from the long-run strength gap, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the midweek cup round.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Liverpool goals Bournemouth goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Bournemouth 0–0 Liverpool: 6% Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool: 8% Bournemouth 0–2 Liverpool: 6% Bournemouth 0–3 Liverpool: 3% Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool: 1% Bournemouth 0–5 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 0–6 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 1–0 Liverpool: 8% Bournemouth 1–1 Liverpool: 12% Bournemouth 1–2 Liverpool: 8% Bournemouth 1–3 Liverpool: 4% Bournemouth 1–4 Liverpool: 1% Bournemouth 1–5 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 1–6 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 2–0 Liverpool: 6% Bournemouth 2–1 Liverpool: 8% Bournemouth 2–2 Liverpool: 6% Bournemouth 2–3 Liverpool: 3% Bournemouth 2–4 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 2–5 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 2–6 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 3–0 Liverpool: 3% Bournemouth 3–1 Liverpool: 4% Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool: 3% Bournemouth 3–3 Liverpool: 1% Bournemouth 3–4 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 3–5 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 4–0 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 4–1 Liverpool: 1% Bournemouth 4–2 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 4–3 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 4–4 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 5–0 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 5–1 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 5–2 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 5–3 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 6–0 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 6–1 Liverpool: <1% Bournemouth 6–2 Liverpool: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Bournemouth win, above it Liverpool do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →