Which Team Will Win?

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry City

Saturday 19th September 2026 (Kick Off: 17:30) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Nottingham Forest win

0–1Full time

Nottingham Forest crest
◀ Forest win Coventry win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Coventry City crest

Confidence: Strong

NFO COV D-L-D-D-W L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.00 -2.50 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-D-D-L-D L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -2.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.91 0.92 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.34 1.93 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 73% 57% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.28 1.56 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1529 Weak 1406 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.54 1.14 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 3.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game NFO COV D-L-D-D-W L-L-L-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.00 -2.50 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-D-D-L-D L-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.40 -2.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.91 0.92 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.34 1.93 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 73% 57% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.28 1.56 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1529 Weak 1406 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.54 1.14 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 4.3 3.3 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Defence. This is the widest gap between them. Nottingham Forest come out on top, 1.34 against 1.93. In matches like this, the side with the tighter defence usually wins – about 69% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callNottingham Forest to win: 60% against 17%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and a cup tie in the other side's legs – the strongest pull the other way is the rest advantage.
  • For Nottingham ForestGoal difference 0.00 v -2.50 (decisive); GK save rate 73% v 57% (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 0.40 v -2.00 (decisive).
  • For Coventry CityNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormNottingham Forest D-L-D-D-W, Coventry City L-L-L-L.

NB 1 of the 9 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 confirmedCoventry City 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

Coventry City 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

26 M. Sels 5 Murillo 2 O. Diomande 23 Jair Cunha 3 N. Williams 21 X. Schlager 24 J. McAtee 27 D. Muñoz 14 D. Ndoye 10 M. Gibbs-White 19 L. Delap
19 C. Rushworth 2 E. Pinnock 4 B. Thomas 12 S. Mfuni 3 J. Dasilva 6 M. Grimes 16 F. Onyeka 8 C. Yirenkyi 10 E. Mason-Clark 5 J. Rudoni 23 B. Thomas-Asante
  1. M. Sels
  2. Murillo
  3. O. Diomande
  4. Jair Cunha
  5. N. Williams
  6. X. Schlager
  7. J. McAtee
  8. D. Muñoz
  9. D. Ndoye
  10. M. Gibbs-White
  11. L. Delap
  1. C. Rushworth
  2. E. Pinnock
  3. B. Thomas
  4. S. Mfuni
  5. J. Dasilva
  6. M. Grimes
  7. F. Onyeka
  8. C. Yirenkyi
  9. E. Mason-Clark
  10. J. Rudoni
  11. B. Thomas-Asante

Substitutes O. Aina, N. Domínguez, C. Hudson-Odoi, John Victor, Igor Jesus, L. Netz, I. Sangaré, C. Wood, R. Yates

Substitutes D. Bentley, S. Cherif, Y. Gboho, G. Hamer, J. Latibeaudiere, T. Sakamoto, E. Simms, L. Tchaouna, V. Torp

Our call: 60% NFO · 22% draw · 17% COV  ·  bookmakers: 60% / 23% / 17%  ·  expected goals 1.91–0.92

Last updated 19 Sept at 17:20

What separates them

The lean to Forest comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and a cup tie in the other side's legs.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–0

Coventry goals Forest goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Forest 0–0 Coventry: 6% Forest 0–1 Coventry: 5% Forest 0–2 Coventry: 3% Forest 0–3 Coventry: <1% Forest 0–4 Coventry: <1% Forest 1–0 Coventry: 11% Forest 1–1 Coventry: 11% Forest 1–2 Coventry: 5% Forest 1–3 Coventry: 1% Forest 1–4 Coventry: <1% Forest 1–5 Coventry: <1% Forest 2–0 Coventry: 11% Forest 2–1 Coventry: 10% Forest 2–2 Coventry: 5% Forest 2–3 Coventry: 1% Forest 2–4 Coventry: <1% Forest 2–5 Coventry: <1% Forest 3–0 Coventry: 7% Forest 3–1 Coventry: 6% Forest 3–2 Coventry: 3% Forest 3–3 Coventry: <1% Forest 3–4 Coventry: <1% Forest 4–0 Coventry: 3% Forest 4–1 Coventry: 3% Forest 4–2 Coventry: 1% Forest 4–3 Coventry: <1% Forest 4–4 Coventry: <1% Forest 5–0 Coventry: 1% Forest 5–1 Coventry: 1% Forest 5–2 Coventry: <1% Forest 5–3 Coventry: <1% Forest 6–0 Coventry: <1% Forest 6–1 Coventry: <1% Forest 6–2 Coventry: <1% Forest 6–3 Coventry: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Forest win, above it Coventry do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →