Which Team Will Win?

Newcastle United 2–1 Hull City

Saturday 19th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Newcastle United win

2–1Full time

Newcastle United crest
◀ Newcastle win Hull City win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers
Hull City crest

Confidence: Strong

NEW HUL L-D-W-D-L L-W-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-D-D L-D-L-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.90 0.92 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 2.16 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.60 1.46 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1546 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.32 1.80 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 68% 78% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.0 3.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game NEW HUL L-D-W-D-L L-W-W-D-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.60 -0.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-W-W-D-D L-D-L-W-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 0.60 -1.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 1.90 0.92 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.65 2.16 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.60 1.46 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven Above average 1546 Weak 1433 Elo performance 1500 is average 2.32 1.80 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 68% 78% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.0 3.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Defence. No other measure separates them as clearly. Newcastle United come out on top, 1.65 against 2.16. whoever was harder to score against normally comes out on top here – 66% of the time in recent seasons. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callNewcastle United to win: 60% against 17%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For Newcastle UnitedGoal difference at this venue 0.60 v -1.00 (clear); Goals 1.90 v 0.92 (clear); Defence 1.65 v 2.16 (clear).
  • For Hull CityGK save rate 78% v 68% (decisive); XI defensive record 1.46 v 1.60 (slight).
  • FormNewcastle United L-D-W-D-L, Hull City L-W-W-D-D.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmedHull City 5-4-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Hull City 5-4-1

Confirmed starting XI

21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 23 J. Murphy 14 S. Steur 67 L. Miley 20 Fernandez-Pardo 28 J. Willock 11 H. Barnes 9 Y. Wissa
19 K. Tzolakis 22 Herrington 15 J. Egan 6 S. Ajayi 3 R. Giles 2 L. Coyle 7 S. Thomas 27 R. Slater 25 M. Crooks 10 M. Belloumi 9 O. McBurnie
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. J. Murphy
  6. S. Steur
  7. L. Miley
  8. M. Fernandez-Pardo
  9. J. Willock
  10. H. Barnes
  11. Y. Wissa
  1. K. Tzolakis
  2. L. Herrington
  3. J. Egan
  4. S. Ajayi
  5. R. Giles
  6. L. Coyle
  7. S. Thomas
  8. R. Slater
  9. M. Crooks
  10. M. Belloumi
  11. O. McBurnie

Substitutes A. Bamba, M. Miley, M. Mills, M. Pivaš, N. Pope, V. Salia, F. Schär, K. Thompson, B. Touré

Substitutes M. Cho, P. McNair, J. Gelhardt, L. Gourna-Douath, J. Hjertø-Dahl, T. Iroegbunam, D. Phillips, E. Stroud, R. Vaz

Our call: 60% NEW · 23% draw · 17% HUL  ·  bookmakers: 59% / 22% / 18%  ·  expected goals 1.90–0.92

Last updated 19 Sept at 14:19

What separates them

The lean to Newcastle comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–0

Hull City goals Newcastle goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Newcastle 0–0 Hull City: 6% Newcastle 0–1 Hull City: 5% Newcastle 0–2 Hull City: 3% Newcastle 0–3 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 0–4 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 1–0 Hull City: 11% Newcastle 1–1 Hull City: 11% Newcastle 1–2 Hull City: 5% Newcastle 1–3 Hull City: 1% Newcastle 1–4 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 1–5 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 2–0 Hull City: 11% Newcastle 2–1 Hull City: 10% Newcastle 2–2 Hull City: 5% Newcastle 2–3 Hull City: 1% Newcastle 2–4 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 2–5 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 3–0 Hull City: 7% Newcastle 3–1 Hull City: 6% Newcastle 3–2 Hull City: 3% Newcastle 3–3 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 3–4 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 4–0 Hull City: 3% Newcastle 4–1 Hull City: 3% Newcastle 4–2 Hull City: 1% Newcastle 4–3 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 4–4 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 5–0 Hull City: 1% Newcastle 5–1 Hull City: 1% Newcastle 5–2 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 5–3 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 6–0 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 6–1 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 6–2 Hull City: <1% Newcastle 6–3 Hull City: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Newcastle win, above it Hull City do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →