Which Team Will Win?

Manchester City 5–3 Sunderland

Sunday 20th September 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Manchester City win

5–3Full time

Manchester City crest
◀ Man City win Sunderland win ▶ 16% draw chance bookmakers
Sunderland crest

Confidence: Very strong

MCI SUN L-W-W-W-W W-L-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-W L-D-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.46 0.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1745 Average 1488 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.87 1.39 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.05 2.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 73% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game MCI SUN L-W-W-W-W W-L-W-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.00 -0.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-W L-D-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 0.00 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 56% 44% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 2.46 0.79 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Exceptional 1745 Average 1488 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.87 1.39 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.05 2.10 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 73% 61% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 5.6 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. It goes to Manchester City: Exceptional to Average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 75% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callManchester City to win: 74% against 10%, with the draw at 16%. Confidence very strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target – the strongest pull the other way is attacking form.
  • For Manchester CityGoals 2.46 v 0.79 (decisive); GK save rate 73% v 61% (decisive); Elo performance 1745 v 1488 (decisive).
  • For SunderlandNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormManchester City L-W-W-W-W, Sunderland W-L-W-D-L.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Manchester City 4-2-3-1 confirmedSunderland 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 G. Donnarumma 24 J. Gvardiol 6 M. Guéhi 3 Rúben Dias 27 Matheus Nunes 5 E. Anderson 17 E. Fernández 42 A. Semenyo 10 R. Cherki 7 I. Ndiaye 9 E. Haaland
22 R. Roefs 6 D. Méthalie 5 D. Ballard 4 K. Danso 20 N. Mukiele 27 N. Sadiki 34 G. Xhaka 10 N. Angulo 28 E. Le Fée 12 T. Meunier 9 B. Brobbey
  1. G. Donnarumma
  2. J. Gvardiol
  3. M. Guéhi
  4. Rúben Dias
  5. Matheus Nunes
  6. E. Anderson
  7. E. Fernández
  8. A. Semenyo
  9. R. Cherki
  10. I. Ndiaye
  11. E. Haaland
  1. R. Roefs
  2. D. Méthalie
  3. D. Ballard
  4. K. Danso
  5. N. Mukiele
  6. N. Sadiki
  7. G. Xhaka
  8. N. Angulo
  9. E. Le Fée
  10. T. Meunier
  11. B. Brobbey

Substitutes Allan, R. Aït-Nouri, A. Bouaddi, J. Doku, A. Khusanov, M. Kovačić, R. Lewis, N. O'Reilly, G. Rulli

Substitutes J. Ahoka, O. Alderete, M. Ellborg, M. Fofana, T. Hume, W. Isidor, L. O'Nien, C. Rigg, C. Talbi

Our call: 74% MCI · 16% draw · 10% SUN  ·  bookmakers: 73% / 17% / 10%  ·  expected goals 2.46–0.79

Last updated 20 Sept at 13:07

What separates them

The lean to Man City comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Sunderland goals Man City goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Man City 0–0 Sunderland: 4% Man City 0–1 Sunderland: 3% Man City 0–2 Sunderland: 1% Man City 0–3 Sunderland: <1% Man City 0–4 Sunderland: <1% Man City 1–0 Sunderland: 9% Man City 1–1 Sunderland: 8% Man City 1–2 Sunderland: 3% Man City 1–3 Sunderland: <1% Man City 1–4 Sunderland: <1% Man City 2–0 Sunderland: 12% Man City 2–1 Sunderland: 9% Man City 2–2 Sunderland: 4% Man City 2–3 Sunderland: <1% Man City 2–4 Sunderland: <1% Man City 3–0 Sunderland: 10% Man City 3–1 Sunderland: 8% Man City 3–2 Sunderland: 3% Man City 3–3 Sunderland: <1% Man City 3–4 Sunderland: <1% Man City 4–0 Sunderland: 6% Man City 4–1 Sunderland: 5% Man City 4–2 Sunderland: 2% Man City 4–3 Sunderland: <1% Man City 4–4 Sunderland: <1% Man City 5–0 Sunderland: 3% Man City 5–1 Sunderland: 2% Man City 5–2 Sunderland: <1% Man City 5–3 Sunderland: <1% Man City 6–0 Sunderland: 1% Man City 6–1 Sunderland: <1% Man City 6–2 Sunderland: <1% Man City 6–3 Sunderland: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Man City win, above it Sunderland do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →