Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United 0–0 Crystal Palace

Sunday 20th September 2026 (Kick Off: 14:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Leeds United win

0–0Full time

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Crystal Palace win ▶ 25% draw chance bookmakers
Crystal Palace crest

Confidence: Fair

LEE CRY L-W-D-D-W L-L-L-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-W-D-W L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.51 2.01 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.31 1.70 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.58 1.35 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 71% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.36 2.16 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Average 1523 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average LEE CRY L-W-D-D-W L-L-L-W-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 -1.20 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-W-D-W L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.80 -1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 51% 49% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.63 1.09 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.51 2.01 Defence Conceded per game ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 1.31 1.70 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.58 1.35 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 71% 69% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 2.36 2.16 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven Average 1523 Average 1501 Elo performance 1500 is average

The key stat: Defence. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. It goes to Leeds United: 1.51 to 2.01. Historically, whoever was harder to score against takes these roughly 69% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

  • The callLeeds United to win: 50% against 25%, with the draw at 25%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the long-run strength gap – the strongest pull the other way is the rest advantage.
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form W-W-W-D-W v L-L-D-L-W (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.80 v -1.40 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.31 v 1.70 (clear).
  • For Crystal PalaceNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormLeeds United L-W-D-D-W, Crystal Palace L-L-L-W-L.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Leeds United 3-5-2 confirmedCrystal Palace 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-5-2

Confirmed starting XI

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 18 A. Stach 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
44 W. Benítez 6 J. Canvot 17 T. Tomiyasu 26 C. Richards 3 T. Mitchell 20 A. Wharton 23 Q. Timber 25 A. Khalaili 10 Yéremy Pino 18 D. Kamada 22 J. Strand Larsen
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. A. Stach
  9. J. Bogle
  10. N. Okafor
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. W. Benítez
  2. J. Canvot
  3. T. Tomiyasu
  4. C. Richards
  5. T. Mitchell
  6. A. Wharton
  7. Q. Timber
  8. A. Khalaili
  9. Yéremy Pino
  10. D. Kamada
  11. J. Strand Larsen

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, D. James, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, M. Zetterer

Substitutes B. Chilwell, C. Doucouré, J. Lerma, R. Matthews, D. McNeil, Óscar Mingueza, E. Nketiah, D. Osorio, I. Sarr

Our call: 50% LEE · 25% draw · 25% CRY  ·  bookmakers: 54% / 25% / 21%  ·  expected goals 1.63–1.09

Last updated 20 Sept at 13:07

What separates them

The lean to Leeds United comes from home advantage, a cup tie in the other side's legs and the long-run strength gap.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Crystal Palace goals Leeds United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Leeds United 0–0 Crystal Palace: 7% Leeds United 0–1 Crystal Palace: 7% Leeds United 0–2 Crystal Palace: 4% Leeds United 0–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Leeds United 0–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 0–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 1–0 Crystal Palace: 10% Leeds United 1–1 Crystal Palace: 12% Leeds United 1–2 Crystal Palace: 6% Leeds United 1–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Leeds United 1–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 1–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 2–0 Crystal Palace: 9% Leeds United 2–1 Crystal Palace: 10% Leeds United 2–2 Crystal Palace: 5% Leeds United 2–3 Crystal Palace: 2% Leeds United 2–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 2–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 3–0 Crystal Palace: 5% Leeds United 3–1 Crystal Palace: 5% Leeds United 3–2 Crystal Palace: 3% Leeds United 3–3 Crystal Palace: 1% Leeds United 3–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 3–5 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 4–0 Crystal Palace: 2% Leeds United 4–1 Crystal Palace: 2% Leeds United 4–2 Crystal Palace: 1% Leeds United 4–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 4–4 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 5–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 5–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 5–2 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 5–3 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 6–0 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 6–1 Crystal Palace: <1% Leeds United 6–2 Crystal Palace: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Leeds United win, above it Crystal Palace do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →