Which Team Will Win?

Everton 1–0 Ipswich Town

Saturday 19th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

whichteamwillwin.com
MoreLess

Everton win

1–0Full time

Everton crest
◀ Everton win Ipswich Town win ▶ 22% draw chance bookmakers
Ipswich Town crest

Confidence: Strong

EVE IPS L-W-D-D-D L-W-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-D-L-W-D L-D-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.98 0.91 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1533 Weak 1383 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.5 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 1.35 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven EVE IPS L-W-D-D-D L-W-L-L-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.20 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) L-D-L-W-D L-D-L-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -1.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.98 0.91 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Above average 1533 Weak 1383 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 63% 58% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 4.5 3.4 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.32 1.56 Defence Conceded per game 1.35 1.40 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven

The key stat: Elo performance. This is the widest gap between them. Everton come out on top, Above average against Weak. In matches like this, the side carrying the stronger record usually wins – about 75% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callEverton to win: 62% against 16%, with the draw at 22%. Confidence strong.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For EvertonGoals 1.98 v 0.91 (clear); Elo performance 1533 v 1383 (clear); Goal difference 0.20 v -1.00 (clear).
  • For Ipswich TownNothing in the measured stats favours them here.
  • FormEverton L-W-D-D-D, Ipswich Town L-W-L-L-W.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Everton 4-2-3-1 confirmedIpswich Town 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Everton 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Pickford 16 V. Mykolenko 4 Branthwaite 6 J. Tarkowski 2 Maitland-Niles 37 J. Garner 45 H. Armstrong 10 J. Grealish 8 Dewsbury-Hall 22 B. Johnson 11 T. Barry
28 C. Walton 3 L. Davis 26 D. O'Shea 6 I. Diop 42 A. Ouattara 25 E. Palacios 23 S. Lukić 47 J. Clarke 10 J. Enciso 7 A. Fatawu 19 Emersonn
  1. J. Pickford
  2. V. Mykolenko
  3. J. Branthwaite
  4. J. Tarkowski
  5. A. Maitland-Niles
  6. J. Garner
  7. H. Armstrong
  8. J. Grealish
  9. K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. B. Johnson
  11. T. Barry
  1. C. Walton
  2. L. Davis
  3. D. O'Shea
  4. I. Diop
  5. A. Ouattara
  6. E. Palacios
  7. S. Lukić
  8. J. Clarke
  9. J. Enciso
  10. A. Fatawu
  11. Emersonn

Substitutes C. Alcaraz, T. Dibling, T. George, B. Graham, H. Hackney, M. Keane, T. King, J. O'Brien, M. Travers

Substitutes C. Akpom, Z. Flemming, D. Furlong, J. Greaves, D. Maeda, Florentino, M. Núñez, J. Philogene, K. Scherpen

Our call: 62% EVE · 22% draw · 16% IPS  ·  bookmakers: 54% / 25% / 22%  ·  expected goals 1.98–0.91

Last updated 19 Sept at 14:50

What separates them

The lean to Everton comes from the long-run strength gap, home advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 2–0

Ipswich Town goals Everton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Everton 0–0 Ipswich Town: 6% Everton 0–1 Ipswich Town: 5% Everton 0–2 Ipswich Town: 2% Everton 0–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 0–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 1–0 Ipswich Town: 11% Everton 1–1 Ipswich Town: 10% Everton 1–2 Ipswich Town: 5% Everton 1–3 Ipswich Town: 1% Everton 1–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 1–5 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 2–0 Ipswich Town: 11% Everton 2–1 Ipswich Town: 10% Everton 2–2 Ipswich Town: 5% Everton 2–3 Ipswich Town: 1% Everton 2–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 2–5 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 3–0 Ipswich Town: 7% Everton 3–1 Ipswich Town: 7% Everton 3–2 Ipswich Town: 3% Everton 3–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 3–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 4–0 Ipswich Town: 4% Everton 4–1 Ipswich Town: 3% Everton 4–2 Ipswich Town: 1% Everton 4–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 4–4 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 5–0 Ipswich Town: 1% Everton 5–1 Ipswich Town: 1% Everton 5–2 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 5–3 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 6–0 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 6–1 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 6–2 Ipswich Town: <1% Everton 6–3 Ipswich Town: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Everton win, above it Ipswich Town do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →