Which Team Will Win?

Brighton & Hove Albion 3–0 Arsenal

Saturday 19th September 2026 (Kick Off: 15:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Arsenal win

3–0Full time

Brighton & Hove Albion crest
◀ Brighton win Arsenal win ▶ 23% draw chance bookmakers
Arsenal crest

Confidence: Fair

BHA ARS L-W-L-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.00 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-D L-W-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.20 1.90 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1567 Exceptional 1763 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.79 3.06 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.12 1.75 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.50 1.03 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.65 0.78 Defence Conceded per game BHA ARS L-W-L-D-W W-W-W-W-W Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 1.00 1.60 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) W-W-L-W-D L-W-W-W-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.40 0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 53% 47% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.20 1.90 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Strong 1567 Exceptional 1763 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 2.79 3.06 XI attacking output Goals and assists expected, this eleven 2.12 1.75 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 1.50 1.03 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.65 0.78 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: Elo performance. No other measure separates them as clearly. Arsenal come out on top, Exceptional against Strong. the better-rated side normally comes out on top here – 75% of the time in recent seasons. The measures below it were chosen the same way.

  • The callArsenal to win: 53% against 24%, with the draw at 23%. Confidence fair.
  • WhyThe call rests on the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and the defenders they face – the strongest pull the other way is home advantage.
  • For ArsenalDefence 0.78 v 1.65 (decisive); XI defensive record 1.03 v 1.50 (decisive); Elo performance 1763 v 1567 (decisive).
  • For Brighton & Hove AlbionPossession 53% v 47% (useful); Attack 2.12 v 1.75 (useful); Goal difference at this venue 1.40 v 0.80 (slight).
  • FormBrighton & Hove Albion L-W-L-D-W, Arsenal W-W-W-W-W.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 confirmedArsenal 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 B. Verbruggen 21 O. Boscagli 4 P. Struijk 44 L. Vušković 24 F. Kadıoğlu 13 P. Groß 14 Chema Andrés 29 M. De Cuyper 26 Y. Ayari 25 D. Gómez 19 C. Kostoulas
1 David Raya 33 R. Calafiori 6 Gabriel Magalhães 15 E. Konsa 12 J. Timber 39 Bruno Guimarães 41 D. Rice 17 C. Tzolis 8 M. Ødegaard 7 B. Saka 29 K. Havertz
  1. B. Verbruggen
  2. O. Boscagli
  3. P. Struijk
  4. L. Vušković
  5. F. Kadıoğlu
  6. P. Groß
  7. Chema Andrés
  8. M. De Cuyper
  9. Y. Ayari
  10. D. Gómez
  11. C. Kostoulas
  1. David Raya
  2. R. Calafiori
  3. Gabriel Magalhães
  4. E. Konsa
  5. J. Timber
  6. Bruno Guimarães
  7. D. Rice
  8. C. Tzolis
  9. M. Ødegaard
  10. B. Saka
  11. K. Havertz

Substitutes P. David, J. Hadjam, Costinha, M. O'Riley, I. Osman, G. Rutter, J. Steele, M. Svoboda, M. Yalcouyé

Substitutes Kepa Arrizabalaga, M. Dowman, E. Eze, V. Gyökeres, P. Hincapié, M. Lewis-Skelly, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi

Our call: 24% BHA · 23% draw · 53% ARS  ·  bookmakers: 20% / 24% / 56%  ·  expected goals 1.20–1.90

Last updated 19 Sept at 14:50

What separates them

The lean to Arsenal comes from the long-run strength gap, the defence in front of them and the defenders they face.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Arsenal goals Brighton goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brighton 0–0 Arsenal: 5% Brighton 0–1 Arsenal: 8% Brighton 0–2 Arsenal: 8% Brighton 0–3 Arsenal: 5% Brighton 0–4 Arsenal: 2% Brighton 0–5 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 0–6 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 1–0 Arsenal: 5% Brighton 1–1 Arsenal: 11% Brighton 1–2 Arsenal: 10% Brighton 1–3 Arsenal: 6% Brighton 1–4 Arsenal: 3% Brighton 1–5 Arsenal: 1% Brighton 1–6 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 2–0 Arsenal: 3% Brighton 2–1 Arsenal: 6% Brighton 2–2 Arsenal: 6% Brighton 2–3 Arsenal: 4% Brighton 2–4 Arsenal: 2% Brighton 2–5 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 2–6 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 3–0 Arsenal: 1% Brighton 3–1 Arsenal: 2% Brighton 3–2 Arsenal: 2% Brighton 3–3 Arsenal: 1% Brighton 3–4 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 3–5 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 3–6 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 4–0 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 4–1 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 4–2 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 4–3 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 4–4 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 4–5 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 5–0 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 5–1 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 5–2 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 5–3 Arsenal: <1% Brighton 5–4 Arsenal: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brighton win, above it Arsenal do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →