Which Team Will Win?

Tottenham Hotspur 2–3 Aston Villa

Saturday 19th September 2026 (Kick Off: 12:30) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Aston Villa win

2–3Full time

Tottenham Hotspur crest
◀ Tottenham win Aston Villa win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Aston Villa crest

Knife-edge – Aston Villa shade it

TOT AVL W-L-L-D-D W-L-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.80 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-D-W-L-D L-D-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.26 1.41 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Below average 1456 Strong 1581 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.3 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.27 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.17 1.59 Defence Conceded per game 65% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved TOT AVL W-L-L-D-D W-L-L-D-L Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.80 -1.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-D-W-L-D L-D-W-L-D Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) -0.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 50% 50% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.26 1.41 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT Below average 1456 Strong 1581 Elo performance 1500 is average ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 3.3 3.6 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.27 1.48 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven 1.17 1.59 Defence Conceded per game 65% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved

The key stat: Elo performance. This is where the two sides are furthest apart. Aston Villa come out on top, Strong against Below average. When this gap appears, the side carrying the stronger record tends to win, in around 76% of cases. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Tottenham Hotspur 33%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 40%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Aston Villa comes from the long-run strength gap, the rest advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For Aston VillaGK save rate 73% v 65% (clear); Elo performance 1581 v 1456 (useful); Shots on target 3.6 v 3.3 (marginal).
  • For Tottenham HotspurDefence 1.17 v 1.59 (useful); XI defensive record 1.27 v 1.48 (useful); Goal difference at this venue -0.20 v -0.80 (slight).
  • FormTottenham Hotspur W-L-L-D-D, Aston Villa W-L-L-D-L.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 confirmedAston Villa 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

31 A. Kinský 3 A. Robertson 37 van de Ven 6 J. van Hecke 23 Pedro Porro 16 S. Tonali 30 R. Bentancur 22 Omar Marmoush 18 Mateus Fernandes 17 Sávio 19 D. Solanke
1 Z. Suzuki 13 M. Ruggeri 5 T. Mings 3 V. Lindelöf 29 Wan-Bissaka 35 João Gomes 8 B. Kamara 10 E. Buendía 44 J. Manzambi 7 J. McGinn 11 N. Jackson
  1. A. Kinský
  2. A. Robertson
  3. M. van de Ven
  4. J. van Hecke
  5. Pedro Porro
  6. S. Tonali
  7. R. Bentancur
  8. Omar Marmoush
  9. Mateus Fernandes
  10. Sávio
  11. D. Solanke
  1. Z. Suzuki
  2. M. Ruggeri
  3. T. Mings
  4. V. Lindelöf
  5. A. Wan-Bissaka
  6. João Gomes
  7. B. Kamara
  8. E. Buendía
  9. J. Manzambi
  10. J. McGinn
  11. N. Jackson

Substitutes T. Adarabioyo, L. Bergvall, M. Dúbravka, C. Gallagher, A. Gray, M. Kudus, J. Maddison, M. Senesi, D. Udogie

Substitutes T. Abraham, R. Barkley, L. Bogarde, M. Cash, A. Garnacho, T. Harwood-Bellis, G. Hemmings, I. Mbaye, J. Wright

Our call: 33% TOT · 27% draw · 40% AVL  ·  bookmakers: 48% / 26% / 26%  ·  expected goals 1.26–1.41

Last updated 19 Sept at 11:35

What separates them

The lean to Aston Villa comes from the long-run strength gap, the rest advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Aston Villa goals Tottenham goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Tottenham 0–0 Aston Villa: 7% Tottenham 0–1 Aston Villa: 9% Tottenham 0–2 Aston Villa: 7% Tottenham 0–3 Aston Villa: 3% Tottenham 0–4 Aston Villa: 1% Tottenham 0–5 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 0–6 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 1–0 Aston Villa: 8% Tottenham 1–1 Aston Villa: 13% Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa: 9% Tottenham 1–3 Aston Villa: 4% Tottenham 1–4 Aston Villa: 1% Tottenham 1–5 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 1–6 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 2–0 Aston Villa: 6% Tottenham 2–1 Aston Villa: 8% Tottenham 2–2 Aston Villa: 5% Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa: 3% Tottenham 2–4 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 2–5 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 2–6 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 3–0 Aston Villa: 2% Tottenham 3–1 Aston Villa: 3% Tottenham 3–2 Aston Villa: 2% Tottenham 3–3 Aston Villa: 1% Tottenham 3–4 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 3–5 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 4–0 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 4–1 Aston Villa: 1% Tottenham 4–2 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 4–3 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 4–4 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 5–0 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 5–1 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 5–2 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 5–3 Aston Villa: <1% Tottenham 6–1 Aston Villa: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Tottenham win, above it Aston Villa do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →