Which Team Will Win?

Brentford 3–0 Chelsea

Friday 18th September 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 5 · Full time

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Brentford win

3–0Full time

Brentford crest
◀ Brentford win Chelsea win ▶ 26% draw chance bookmakers
Chelsea crest

Knife-edge – Brentford shade it

BRE CHE D-W-D-D-D L-W-W-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-W-D L-D-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.40 1.35 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.62 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.54 1.27 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.8 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.70 1.59 Defence Conceded per game BRE CHE D-W-D-D-D L-W-W-L-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) 0.60 0.00 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-D-W-D L-D-L-W-L Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -0.80 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.40 1.35 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.62 1.43 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 75% 67% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.54 1.27 Attack Goals and expected goals per game 3.8 4.2 Exp: Shots on target Per game 1.70 1.59 Defence Conceded per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. Of everything on this page, this is the biggest difference. Chelsea lead it, 1.43 to 1.62. Historically, the side with the steadier back line takes these roughly 67% of the time. Those underneath were selected on the same basis.

Against the call – it points Chelsea's way, and the knife-edge lean still goes to Brentford – on home advantage, the rest advantage and changes in the other camp.

  • The callKnife-edge – Brentford 38%, draw 26%, Chelsea 36%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Brentford comes from home advantage, the rest advantage and changes in the other camp.
  • For BrentfordGoal difference at this venue 1.20 v -0.80 (decisive); GK save rate 75% v 67% (clear); Home and away form D-W-D-W-D v L-D-L-W-L (clear).
  • For ChelseaXI defensive record 1.43 v 1.62 (useful); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); Shots on target 4.2 v 3.8 (slight).
  • FormBrentford D-W-D-D-D, Chelsea L-W-W-L-D.

NB 2 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Brentford 4-2-3-1 confirmedChelsea 3-4-2-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Brentford 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 C. Kelleher 23 Lewis-Potter 20 K. Ajer 44 J. Schuster 33 M. Kayode 27 V. Janelt 6 Y. Yarmoliuk 7 K. Schade 24 M. Damsgaard 19 J. Anthony 9 Igor Thiago
1 E. Martínez 6 L. Colwill 5 M. Lacroix 3 W. Fofana 29 Pep Chavarría 4 V. Barco 14 J. Henderson 7 Pedro Neto 17 M. Rogers 10 C. Palmer 18 D. Welbeck
  1. C. Kelleher
  2. K. Lewis-Potter
  3. K. Ajer
  4. J. Schuster
  5. M. Kayode
  6. V. Janelt
  7. Y. Yarmoliuk
  8. K. Schade
  9. M. Damsgaard
  10. J. Anthony
  11. Igor Thiago
  1. E. Martínez
  2. L. Colwill
  3. M. Lacroix
  4. W. Fofana
  5. Pep Chavarría
  6. V. Barco
  7. J. Henderson
  8. Pedro Neto
  9. M. Rogers
  10. C. Palmer
  11. D. Welbeck

Substitutes E. Balcombe, E. Diouf, B. Fredrick, Fábio Carvalho, R. Henry, A. Hickey, D. Ouattara, M. Sangaré, C. Wilson

Substitutes J. Acheampong, Estêvão, J. Gittens, M. Gusto, J. Hato, R. Lavia, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, M. Penders, Geovany Quenda

Our call: 38% BRE · 26% draw · 36% CHE  ·  bookmakers: 36% / 26% / 38%  ·  expected goals 1.40–1.35

Last updated 18 Sept at 19:04

What separates them

The lean to Brentford comes from home advantage, the rest advantage and changes in the other camp.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Chelsea goals Brentford goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Brentford 0–0 Chelsea: 7% Brentford 0–1 Chelsea: 8% Brentford 0–2 Chelsea: 6% Brentford 0–3 Chelsea: 3% Brentford 0–4 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 0–5 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 0–6 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 1–0 Chelsea: 9% Brentford 1–1 Chelsea: 12% Brentford 1–2 Chelsea: 8% Brentford 1–3 Chelsea: 4% Brentford 1–4 Chelsea: 1% Brentford 1–5 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 1–6 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 2–0 Chelsea: 6% Brentford 2–1 Chelsea: 8% Brentford 2–2 Chelsea: 6% Brentford 2–3 Chelsea: 3% Brentford 2–4 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 2–5 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 2–6 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 3–0 Chelsea: 3% Brentford 3–1 Chelsea: 4% Brentford 3–2 Chelsea: 3% Brentford 3–3 Chelsea: 1% Brentford 3–4 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 3–5 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 4–0 Chelsea: 1% Brentford 4–1 Chelsea: 1% Brentford 4–2 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 4–3 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 4–4 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 5–0 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 5–1 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 5–2 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 5–3 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 6–0 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 6–1 Chelsea: <1% Brentford 6–2 Chelsea: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Brentford win, above it Chelsea do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →