Which Team Will Win?

Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle United

Monday 14th September 2026 (Kick Off: 20:00) · Gameweek 4 · Full time

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Leeds United win

4–1Full time

Leeds United crest
◀ Leeds United win Newcastle win ▶ 27% draw chance bookmakers
Newcastle United crest

Knife-edge – Leeds United shade it

LEE NEW W-L-W-D-D W-L-D-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-W-W-D L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.39 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.37 1.56 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.59 1.21 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Average 1514 Above average 1555 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 4.1 3.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game LEE NEW W-L-W-D-D W-L-D-W-D Recent form Last 5 matches (part last season) -0.20 0.40 Goal difference Per game, last 5 (part last season) D-W-W-W-D L-L-D-L-W Home & away form Home v away, last 5 (part last season) 1.20 -0.40 Goal difference at this venue Per game (part last season) 47% 53% Exp: Possession Share of the ball 1.39 1.21 Exp: Goals What the model expects KEY STAT 1.37 1.56 XI defensive record Goals expected against, this eleven ALSO TIPPING THE BALANCE 68% 73% Exp: GK save rate Shots saved 1.59 1.21 Attack Goals and expected goals per game Average 1514 Above average 1555 Elo performance 1500 is average 1.63 1.63 Defence Conceded per game 4.1 3.8 Exp: Shots on target Per game

The key stat: XI defensive record. This is the widest gap between them. Leeds United come out on top, 1.37 against 1.56. In matches like this, whoever fielded the more solid defence usually wins – about 68% of the time. The stats beneath it were picked on the same evidence.

  • The callKnife-edge – Leeds United 41%, draw 27%, Newcastle United 32%. The gap between the two sides is smaller than the chance of a draw.
  • WhyThe lean to Leeds United comes from home advantage, the rest advantage and recent shots on target.
  • For Leeds UnitedHome and away form D-W-W-W-D v L-L-D-L-W (decisive); Goal difference at this venue 1.20 v -0.40 (clear); Attack 1.59 v 1.21 (useful).
  • For Newcastle UnitedGK save rate 73% v 68% (useful); Possession 53% v 47% (useful); Goal difference 0.40 v -0.20 (slight).
  • FormLeeds United W-L-W-D-D, Newcastle United W-L-D-W-D.

NB 4 of the 10 matches behind that form were played last season, before the summer transfer window.

Leeds United 3-5-2 confirmedNewcastle United 4-2-3-1 confirmed Line-ups in fullHide the line-ups

Leeds United 3-5-2

Confirmed starting XI

Newcastle United 4-2-3-1

Confirmed starting XI

1 J. Trafford 5 T. Muharemović 30 N. Elvedi 24 J. Justin 3 Gudmundsson 22 A. Tanaka 4 E. Ampadu 18 A. Stach 2 J. Bogle 19 N. Okafor 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
21 L. Horníček 3 L. Hall 4 S. Botman 12 M. Thiaw 37 A. Dedić 67 L. Miley 6 Nico González 11 H. Barnes 20 Fernandez-Pardo 23 J. Murphy 9 Y. Wissa
  1. J. Trafford
  2. T. Muharemović
  3. N. Elvedi
  4. J. Justin
  5. G. Gudmundsson
  6. A. Tanaka
  7. E. Ampadu
  8. A. Stach
  9. J. Bogle
  10. N. Okafor
  11. D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. L. Horníček
  2. L. Hall
  3. S. Botman
  4. M. Thiaw
  5. A. Dedić
  6. L. Miley
  7. Nico González
  8. H. Barnes
  9. M. Fernandez-Pardo
  10. J. Murphy
  11. Y. Wissa

Substitutes B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, D. James, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson, M. Zetterer

Substitutes A. Bamba, T. Livramento, M. Miley, N. Pope, J. Ramsey, F. Schär, S. Steur, B. Touré, J. Willock

Our call: 41% LEE · 27% draw · 32% NEW  ·  bookmakers: 39% / 27% / 33%  ·  expected goals 1.39–1.21

Last updated 14 Sept at 19:32

What separates them

The lean to Leeds United comes from home advantage, the rest advantage and recent shots on target.

Likeliest scoreline: 1–1

Newcastle goals Leeds United goals 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 Leeds United 0–0 Newcastle: 8% Leeds United 0–1 Newcastle: 9% Leeds United 0–2 Newcastle: 5% Leeds United 0–3 Newcastle: 2% Leeds United 0–4 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 0–5 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 1–0 Newcastle: 10% Leeds United 1–1 Newcastle: 13% Leeds United 1–2 Newcastle: 8% Leeds United 1–3 Newcastle: 3% Leeds United 1–4 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 1–5 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 2–0 Newcastle: 7% Leeds United 2–1 Newcastle: 9% Leeds United 2–2 Newcastle: 5% Leeds United 2–3 Newcastle: 2% Leeds United 2–4 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 2–5 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 3–0 Newcastle: 3% Leeds United 3–1 Newcastle: 4% Leeds United 3–2 Newcastle: 2% Leeds United 3–3 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 3–4 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 3–5 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 4–0 Newcastle: 1% Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle: 1% Leeds United 4–2 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 4–3 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 4–4 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 5–0 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 5–1 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 5–2 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 5–3 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 6–0 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 6–1 Newcastle: <1% Leeds United 6–2 Newcastle: <1%

The bigger the circle, the likelier the score. Draws run corner to corner; below that line Leeds United win, above it Newcastle do, and each group adds up to its percentage in our call. Full method →